Column: James Robinson's Pro Bowl Exclusion Dims the Entire Process
Let’s just preface this by saying we’re probably a little biased here. We watch James Robinson every Sunday and in person most of those Sunday’s. We see the cuts he is able to make behind the offensive line to find lanes that aren’t there. We see the speed to get to the edge, the sure hands on throws out of the backfield and the hurdles that belie his squat stature.
We see the rookie running back will his way through defensive scrums, only to pop out the other side with no logical explanation as to how he did it. And we’ve seen him become one of the most mesmerizing backs in the league on a team with one of the worst offenses in the league.
We know James Robinson did all of this as an undrafted free agent, fighting his way up the depth chart with little offseason practices and no preseason games, proving to coaches he was more valuable than their still relatively young first-round running back.
We know having a front-row seat to his incredible rookie season means we have some recency and proximity bias in stumping for him as a Pro Bowl candidate.
But what James Robinson has done this season—and from a difficult position—should be transcendent. On an offense that found little to no footing all year, Robinson kept his foot on the gas, becoming responsible for 29% of the team’s offense with 1,070 rushing yards and 344 through the air.
He’s only the third underrated rookie in the common draft era with 10 touchdowns. He’s the fourth undrafted rookie in NFL history to total at least 1,000 rushing yards, and the fastest to do so. He is 35 rushing yards away from passing Indianapolis Colts running back Dominic Rhodes for most rushing yards in by an undrafted rookie in NFL history in a single season—and he’s already passed Rhodes to earn the top spot for scrimmage yards by a UDFA in NFL history (1,414).
This is all relative to what other undrafted free agents have done of course and must be seen at least partially through that lens. But Robinson has held his own against the best of the best in the NFL, ever since he beat out Leonard Fournette to become RB1.
Robinson was only 30 rushing yards shy of joining running backs Ezekiel Elliot (2016) and Saquon Barkley (2018) as the only rookies in the NFL since 2016 to total 1,100-plus rushing yards and 10-plus TDs through the first 15 weeks of a season.
He’s third in the NFL with his 1,070 rushing yards, fourth with 240 carries and currently boasts a 78.5 rushing grade from Pro Football Focus.
Which, again, all impressive but can be somewhat skewed to highlight just Robinson. To truly understand the impact he’s had, compare the rookie’s numbers to those of the three AFC running backs who were elected to the Pro Bowl: Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans), Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns) and Josh Jacobs (Oakland Raiders).
Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry: 1,679
James Robinson: 1,070
Nick Chubb: 931
Josh Jacobs: 907
Scrimmage Yards
Derrick Henry: 1,793
James Robinson: 1,414
Nick Chubb: 1,043
Josh Jacobs: 1,145
Rushing Touchdowns
Derrick Henry: 15
James Robinson: 7
Nick Chubb: 10
Josh Jacobs: 10
Yards per Attempt
Derrick Henry: 5.2
James Robinson: 4.5
Nick Chubb: 5.6
Josh Jacobs: 3.7
Forced Missed Tackles
Derrick Henry: 58
James Robinson: 34
Nick Chubb: 44
Josh Jacobs: 43
Yards After Contact Per Attempt
Derrick Henry: 3.85
James Robinson: 3.18
Nick Chubb: 3.88
Josh Jacobs: 2.67
Explosive (10+ yard) Runs
Derrick Henry: 41
James Robinson: 31
Nick Chubb: 30
Josh Jacobs: 25
It’s not hard to determine from those numbers and just sheer common sense in watching them for any one game that Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb earned a Pro Bowl invite. But it’s hard to justify Jacobs over Robinson.
This is not a knock on Jacobs, who is a great running back in his own right. The only thing he really has over Robinson this year though is playing in a bigger market. And that’s the rub.
Robinson has been a bright star on a relatively dim team but has also managed to shine throughout the entire league.
“Normally, I don’t ever really talk about individual accomplishments after the game … But [Robinson’s 1,000 rushing yards] is something that could be celebrated by all of us, the offensive line, receivers, the tight ends, and I said even the defensive guys and specialists,” said Head Coach Doug Marrone after Robinson eclipsed the century mark.
“I mean, it’s something of here’s a guy that represents so much of what’s good about competition, about playing, about humility, about keeping things in perspective.”
It’s a farce to have not been selected and calls into question the entire process. The Pro Bowl has a three-pronged voting approach; fans, coaches, and players, each accounting for a third of the vote.
We feel confident in saying players and coaches that have gone against Robinson are well aware of his impact and talent. Beyond that Robinson is a victim of a season-long 1 p.m. eastern time slot with a 1-13 team, the latter of which is something he has done his part to change. We’ve lost count of how many touchdowns Robinson has had called back because of an offensive penalty by a teammate.
So if opponents are aware of Robinson’s impact (the Jaguars and the Raiders had only three common opponents this season: the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers and Cleveland Browns) then the buck is passed to the remaining league coaches and players. We fear coaches look at the records and the primetime games, of which the Raiders have played in three as opposed to the Jaguars one.
The fan vote is tough to whip up when the Jags have one of the smaller markets and bases in the league (a byproduct of a young franchise and record) and Robinson himself hails from the small Illinois State University, an FCS team.
In some aspects, splitting the vote three ways amongst players, coaches and fans makes sense. It allows for equal say from all of the people who would have an investment in the process and the final product. But it also allows for ballot stuffing from fans and puts less emphasis on production and more on perception. In the process, small school rookies on smaller franchise teams like James Robinson, get left out despite being beyond deserving.
For some, the Pro Bowl has become an exhibition; nothing more than a glorified social media fest that includes a modicum of football. But for those given the honor, the Pro Bowl can still be a major accomplishment. It’s validating and monetarily advantageous for the players chosen. For an undrafted rookie who still has several years before he can rework his rookie contract, that extra compensation can be a major difference-maker.
The Pro Bowl was created to honor players like James Robinson, those who shine in the game. With his exclusion, the entire process is dulled.
