Column: 9 Reasons Trevor Lawrence Should Rather Play for the Jaguars Than the Jets
The Jacksonville Jaguars players and coaches made it explicitly clear before and as the season began that despite any outside narratives, they had no intention of tanking. And in their plans, that was likely true. But the best-laid plans often go awry. Despite any preseason promises or passionate declarations, the Jaguars are still 1-7 right now.
It could be worse — or depending on how you look at it, better. The New York Jets are 0-9, meaning the two clubs are dueling for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Barring a complete meltdown or unforeseen event, that No. 1 pick will undoubtedly be Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawerence.
Lawerence has been tabbed as an eventual first overall draftee from his freshman season, and instead of buckling under the pressure or proving unworthy of hype, he’s actually gotten even better. So, yeah, he’s a franchise-changing type quarterback and everybody wants him.
With the 2020 NFL season now halfway completed, those records start to come into play. Jaguar fans who want Lawerence will likely start pulling for the Jets to pull off a few wins and fall down the draft board.
While Lawerence—or for that matter Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones nor Kyle Trask—doesn’t necessarily have a say in which team drafts him, he can root along with fans for certain teams to win or lose.
Still, it hasn’t stopped the debate and talk show topic; for which team/city would Trevor Lawerence rather play? Understandably, New York is the initial answer. It’s the Big Apple and the Jets have been around longer with more championship history (not much, but more than zero). New York media has even begun calling into Dabo Swinney's weekly press conferences to ask questions about their future quarterback.
We think there’s more in Jacksonville’s favor, however. Here are the nine reasons we think Trevor Lawerence would rather be a Jacksonville Jaguar as opposed to a New York Jet.
The Rebuild
Both franchises are in the midst of a rebuild…but Jacksonville is further along. The Jags are putting on the doorknobs and tightening the lightbulbs. The Jets are just now clearing the streets to bring in the wrecking ball.
The Jaguars used a franchise record 12 draft picks this past spring to inject the locker room with young, rookie talent. Moves in free agency as well have set enough cornerstones off which to build. It’s not hard to see Jacksonville is a knock out quarterback and possibly a regime change away from being ready to win. The Jets have all but fired Adam Gase…but that’s just step one in what stands to be a longer process. And a refusal to do so yet makes one wonder at what point will they finally be willing to pull the trigger. New York has a strong 2020 draft class, but they don't have quite the embarrassment of resources in terms of draft capital that the Jaguars have, nor do they have the same level of current young talent.
The Weapons
The Jets are currently sitting at the bottom of the league in offensive production. And this is the second year in a row that’s the case. Through nine games, New York is averaging 266 yards per game. That’s 85.6 yards per less than the Jags are currently averaging. They have an interesting rookie in Denzel Mims, but he can't do it alone.
A large reason for this is because of the weapons around each field. Jacksonville boasts DJ Chark, a dynamic Pro-Bowler. None of the Jets receivers this season* share the accolade.
Versatile Jags rookie Laviska Shenault has been a Swiss army knife for the staff and has 377 all-purpose yards thus far this season. The closest guy on the Jets roster—in terms of being use in a variety of ways—is Braxton Berrios. In his nine games, Berrios has accumulated 236 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns.
And we can’t not mention rookie phenomenon James Robinson. The undrafted free agent chance that became the starter after training camp has been nominated for rookie of the week multiple times through eight games. He can be a quarterback’s safety blanket and that’s a relief to play with.
*Have caught at least 100-yards in receptions this season.
Jay Gruden*
While things could change with the Jets ongoing coaching staff search, and with Jacksonville's own potential coaching staff search, Jaguars Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden is currently a major factor. This season alone, Gruden has coached his quarterbacks (Gardner Minshew and Jake Luton) to an average of 299.7 passing yards per game. By comparison, the Jets passers (Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco) are averaging 183.5 yard through the air this season.
Unless he gets scooped up and put back into a head coaching position—which is always possible—then Gruden should be calling the plays again in Jacksonville next season. The offense has been markedly improved this season and unless New York pulls in Kansas City Chiefs Coordinator Eric Bieniemy to lead their club, the uncertainty of the Jets coaching and offensive future must be outweighed by the dependable tutelage under the established Gruden. This is a moot point if Gruden is coaching elsewhere, but as of now it would be surprising to see him outside Jacksonville.
*Subject to change based on coaching moves made in offseason.
The Media
We might be biased here, but the media is much better in Jacksonville. The New York media is notoriously tough and they don’t pull up out of kindness when rookie fresh meat comes to town. The bright lights and opportunity of the Big Apple could turn Trevor Lawerence into a fur coat wearing Joe Namath like-star. It could also tear him down for the smallest infraction and keep a heel on the head till career death is the only option.
And there's nothing to say a top-notch quarterback and personality can't become a star in a lesser city. One of the most special things about Kansas City before Patrick Mahomes showed up was the barbecue. But do we think the light shines any less on the young star just because of where he plays? Nope.
So, the toughest place in America to be under a microscope (New York/technically New Jersey) or a smaller contingent with less pressure (Jacksonville, duh)? It’s not really a choice.
Activism
Lawerence was a leading force in returning college football this season, working to establish COVID-19 protocols for teams and raising his voice for social activism in South Carolina and nationwide. He became a light-carrier, willingly picking up the torch and not scared to step out in front.
As marches and protest broke out around the country this summer asking for social justice and reform, the Jaguars were the first team in the NFL to organize a franchise wide march. While some clubs were less encouraging when it came to speaking out on social issues, Jacksonville encouraged their payers to stand up and speak out about issues important to their hearts.
With these two attitudes joining together, Lawerence and the Jaguars could lead the charge on a multitude of societal issues.
The Weather
The high in Jacksonville on Thursday is supposed to be 80 degrees. In New York? 64 degrees. There’s also a beach 15 miles from TIAA Bank Field that isn’t Jersey Shore adjacent. I rest my case.
Location, Location, Location
As if the beach locale wasn’t enough of a selling point here, there’s the distance to North Georgia. Lawerence is from Cartersville, Georgia. That means the north Atlanta city and his family are just under six hours from Jacksonville. It’s just under 14 hours to the facilities in New Jersey.
The Cap Space
It shouldn’t be all about the money…but it’s somewhat about the money. As the numbers currently stands, the Jaguars and Jets have the top two cap space budgets in the league. Jacksonville just edges out New York with a little over one million more in cap space. The Jets have over 15 million in dead cap. While this doesn't matter when it comes to a rookie's own salary, it does matter when it comes to building around the quarterback. While the two sides are close in terms of cap space, any small edge gives one side an advantage when it comes to giving their future quarterback a chance to win.
The Tax Break
Speaking of money, one of the most alluring aspects of playing in the state of Florida is the lack of income tax. One of only seven states in the country that has no income tax, paychecks from one of the three Florida teams (Jags, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins) are impacted less. It’s not unheard of for a No. 2 overall pick to a Florida based team will end up making more than a No. 1 overall pick who might end up in California.
The state income tax in New Jersey—which is technically where the New York Jets franchise is located—ranged in tax brackets but a first-round pick would inevitably be in the top bracket and therefore be forced to a 10.75% state income tax on all earned income.
For comparison, if Lawerence signed a contract identical to that of 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow ($36.1 million) then he’d pay $3.8 million more in taxes from that contract in the state of New Jersey than he would in Florida.
Unless Lawerence pulls a Bo Jackson and just refuses to go play for a team/franchise, then he won't get a big choice in where he lands next spring. But if the Clemson Tigers quarterback wants to start sending a few prayers upwards, we think he has enough reasons to make those prayers Jacksonville Jaguars specific.
