Column: Sugar Bowl Loss Doesn't Change the Jaguars' Future With Trevor Lawrence
We know what you’re thinking. Stop. Don’t be a prisoner of the moment.
The Clemson Tigers 49-28 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl should not change things when it comes to the Jacksonville Jaguars potentially drafting Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Recency bias wants to abandon three years of tape and success and ask if the Jags should draft Ohio State’s Justin Fields (a consensus number two on the passer board) instead of Lawrence, the latter of whom has been tabbed a No. 1 pick pretty much since he graduated from high school.
Lawrence rushes for a touchdown against Ohio State, finishing his career with 118 touchdowns. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
As a disclaimer, let’s first make one thing clear. Justin Fields is an excellent quarterback and with the way the NFL is trending with scramblers thanks to guys like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, he has a big future in the league. His performance in New Orleans on Friday night meant those watching were treated to a legend in the making.
Fields finished 22-28 for 385 yards and six touchdowns along with 42 yards on eight rushes, the majority of which came after taking a hard hit to the ribs that would’ve knocked out a lesser man. He’s one of the most exciting quarterbacks to watch in the game and the semifinal playoff win to send the Buckeyes to the National Championship served as the first stroke of an exclamation point on a fantastic career.
That doesn’t mean the Jaguars need to abandon what still looks to be a slam dunk plan for the April draft.
As special and exciting as Justin Fields has been and promises to be in the NFL, Trevor Lawrence is still hands-down the best prospect in the draft and arguably one of the best prospects in years. He’s 38-2 in college with his only two losses coming versus LSU in the National Championship last season and then, of course, Ohio State last night.
At 6-foot-6, 220 lbs. he’s size is prototypical NFL quarterback and he’s not afraid to stand in the pocket with pressure coming or take off and use his length, as he did on Friday night to beat Ohio State linebacker Baron Browning in a foot race to the pylon. He has 90 career passing touchdowns in 40 games, as well as 18 rushing touchdowns. That total means he averages just under three touchdowns a game, with it not a totally uncommon occurrence for Lawrence to sit in the second half of blowouts.
One game does not an entire career make and the entire body of work for Lawrence is what still places him at the top of draft boards.
As NFL Draft expert Daniel Jeremiah wrote following the Sugar Bowl, “Lawrence is still a special player with a rare combination of size, athletic ability and arm talent. He was not at his best against Ohio State, but I don't think it was the type of performance (33 of 48 for 400 yards with 2 TDs and an INT) that will jeopardize his standing with NFL evaluators. Keep in mind that there is no perfect prospect, and Friday marked just the second loss of his college career.”
But we’re here having this discussion so let’s play devil’s advocate and say one game should make a huge difference. How much should the Sugar Bowl performance impact Lawrence’s draft stock?
He threw for 400 yards, going 33-48 for two touchdowns and an interception (that wasn’t really his fault but more on that later) through the air as well as the rushing touchdown when he outran Browning.
I can hear the question on your lips—Clemson was down by 28 points at the beginning of the fourth quarter, so wouldn’t he have had to throw more? Yes. Which is why Lawrence threw for 144 yards in the fourth quarter alone. Some of that though has to do with the fact that in the third quarter—despite being down 35-14 to start the half and 42-21 with five minutes left—Head Coach Dabo Swinney called seven runs with the Tigers mere 15 total plays.
One has to wonder if the absence of Tigers Offensive Coordinator Tony Elliott (who stayed behind with a COVID positive test) affected Lawrence’s play and game flow. For that matter, the only real knock on his game in the Sugar Bowl was that he didn’t take over and call his own plays at the line. Well, that and the two fumbles on two sacks. The ball security will have to be fixed, much like Gardner Minshew II after his rookie season.
Ohio State sent pressure all night and Lawrence's offensive line couldn't keep him protected. © Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch via Imagn Content Services, LLC
Before getting only eight plays to work with in the second quarter, Lawrence went 9-12 for 134 yards through the air in the first quarter.
The interception came on the last play—possibly the last play of his collegiate career—when Lawrence scrambled and launched one to the endzone for a last-second touchdown attempt. His receiver had two hands on the ball for the score but it was knocked away as he put a toe on the ground. The loose ball landed in the hands of an Ohio State defender, of which there were many for the Hail Mary attempt.
If there are any Jaguar fans who tuned in to the Sugar Bowl for their first glimpse of Trevor Lawrence, trust us when we say the consistent pressure he was under all night was an anomaly; his touch on the ball along with calm demeanor that keeps the Tigers clicking all game is much more common.
We’ve implored the Jaguars time and again, through various pieces that we’re sure no one in the front office actually reads, to not overthink this. Don’t try to outsmart yourself and pass up on the best quarterback prospect in years to take a running back that you’ll trade in three seasons while watching the passer you passed on takes a team deep into the playoffs (looking at you 2017 Jaguars).
Trevor Lawrence is the best prospect in this class, of the past several classes and one game doesn’t implode that fact…and even if the Sugar Bowl did impact his draft status, it shouldn’t do so determinately.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance to draft Trevor Lawrence first overall in April and nothing that happened in New Orleans on Friday night should change that.
