Commanders 28, Jaguars 22: 5 Observations on Lawrence, Robinson and More
Here we go again. Right?
Maybe, maybe not. It is hard to blame anyone who thought Sunday's 28-22 loss to the Washington Commanders felt like the ghost of Jacksonville Jaguars past. But can the Jaguars afford to fall into the same trap? Does head coach Doug Pederson think they will?
"I don't. I don’t because it starts with me. I’m not going to let that creep into our thinking at all," Pederson said on Monday. "I coach the staff that way to make sure they’re positive yet very critical of the players as well, critical of ourselves, and I’m just not going to let that happen.”
But with the Jaguars sitting in last place in the AFC South despite no fellow divisional teams picking up a win, what does Sunday really mean? What did we see, and what could it all impact moving forward? We examine below.
Trevor Lawrence looks improved and like a quarterback you can win with, but not generational
The discourse on Trevor Lawrence has been, well, as expected. A quarterback who many expected to be a Pro Bowl passer right out of the gate (despite the fact he was drafted by the Jaguars of all teams) has clearly taken longer to develop than many would hope, even if he has yet to make 20 career starts. He didn't look like a "generational" quarterback on Sunday, though that is largely because generational quarterbacks are just that. They are rare. Lawrence has all of the traits, but he is no Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen at this phase in his career. It is worth pointing out that Mahomes and Allen weren't who they are today at the same points in their careers, but nuance is fluid.
Nonetheless, whether Lawrence meets an arbitrary benchmark that Todd McShay and Mel Kiper slapped on him during his freshman year at Clemson doesn't matter. What does matter is if he can become a quarterback the Jaguars can win with and, eventually, win because of. And on Sunday, Lawrence did at least show improvement in several areas, including his timing and overall downfield accuracy.
Lawrence was under duress at a high rate against Washington's tough defensive front, which played into some mistakes such as his game-ending interception. He also had his own misses, such as a missed throw to an open Travis Etienne for a touchdown on the first drive of the game. But overall, the film and numbers show that Lawrence was far from bad on Sunday. He was perfectly fine. Nothing more, nothing less. Just fine. It was a performance most teams can win with, and it was a performance in his 18th start that tracks the development of most passers outside the elite of the elite.
Does a game like Sunday do anything to quench the deserved and fair thirst in Jacksonville for a supernova-type quarterback? No. And Jaguars fans don't deserve to be told to "just be patient" for the 100th time. But Lawrence didn't play concerning by any actual metric other than preconceived ones that dictate he must be near perfect. At some point, something has to be met in the middle.
"It’s a little of everything. There was some pressure in his face a couple times, movement in the pocket could have been a little better at times, but listen, it’s the NFL, and we ask a lot of our quarterback, of Trevor, and there were some really good things that he did during the game," Pederson said on Monday. "There are some plays he’d love to have back, but I thought overall his vision down the field and what he saw was right on point to what we’re trying to get done.”
James Robinson is still James Robinson
If there is one player who doesn't have much left to prove at the NFL level, it is James Robinson. The former undrafted running back made a miraculous return to the field in Week 1 after a Week 16 Achilles tear in 2022, defying the odds and even the history of running backs with the same injury before him. He played well, too, rushing 11 times for 66 yards and a touchdown and catching a pass for a touchdown.
In short, James Robinson looked like James Robinson. He ran well. He pass-protected well. He didn't lose any speed or burst, and his vision and blend of power and balance were clearly valued by Pederson and the Jaguars' offensive staff. This was the expectation coming in after Robinson practiced well over the last several weeks, but it was still good to see it happen with live reps.
Any concerns about whether Robinson is back are gone. Questions over who Jacksonville's lead back is are also gone, with Robinson getting the start on Sunday and receiving five more touches than Travis Etienne. Robinson is still Robinson, something that seems both unbelievable and expected at the same time.
"James felt good. We wanted to make sure that he was feeling good if we kept him going, and he ran hard, ran tough," Pederson said. "Both those guys did a really great job for us, and it’s a good one-two punch. We’re going to continue to find ways to get them both in the game and get them touches.”
How long will kicking issues fester?
By most stands, Riley Patterson had a relatively okay debut as Jaguar. He made three of his four field goal attempts (33, 43, 45) and didn't have any issues on extra points or kickoffs. But Patterson's one miss loomed large for a number of reasons, calling into question just how long the Jaguars will have to keep experimenting.
Patterson's only miss on the day was a 37-yard field goal at the end of the first half. Not only did the kick erase three potential points off the board, but it served as a deflating mechanism entering halftime after it meant the Jaguars turned a Curtis Samuel fumble into zero points.
But Patterson's kick also clearly impacted the Jaguars' confidence in him. The Jaguars chased points after their first touchdown, opting to go for two points in a 14-9 ball-game as opposed to letting Patterson make the extra-point. They didn't get the conversion, making it four points Patterson was directly or indirectly responsible for not scoring. In a six-point loss, that simply can't happen.
Defensive additions were a let-down
The Jaguars defense should be much better than it was on Sunday, new system or not. This is a defense the Jaguars and general manager Trent Baalke have poured an abundance of resources into the last two seasons, especially this past offseason. The unit is the second-most expensive defense in the NFL after big deals to Shaq Griffin, Rayshawn Jenkins, Roy Robertson-Harris, Foye Oluokun, Foley Fatukasi, and Darious Williams. And with two first-round picks (Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd) and two more top-65 picks (Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco) on the field, it is impossible to say the Jaguars haven't taken big swings.
The issue is, those swings haven't actually amounted to a good defense yet. Travon Walker had an impressive debut despite making a minimal impact for most of the game thanks to a sack and interception. Tyson Campbell also recorded an interception, while Foley Fatukasi did a solid job generating pressure and against the run.
Otherwise? The additions were a let down. Griffin and Jenkins were liabilities, Oluokun was a step slow in coverage and didn't make an impact play, Williams looked rusty after missing training camp and missed several tackles, Robertson-Harris was a non-factor, and Lloyd arguably struggled more than any player on the field.
Baalke and the Jaguars have poured resources into the unit. Pederson made sure to hire a coordinator who would bring a 3-4 defense to fit what they did in 2021. But despite this, the defense looked more like a bottom half of the league unit than the play-making one it is supposed to be.
The closeness of loss doesn't matter; the Jaguars still haven't learned how to win
If you were to rank the Jaguars' overall performance this week to their 17 games last year, it would probably be a top-5 game, and would have been undoubtedly the "best" loss a year ago. Their 22 points would have been their third-most last year and their three turnovers are 33% of the entire turnover figure they hit last year.
But that doesn't matter. The fact the Jaguars were close and even in the driver's seat at times doesn't matter. In the NFL, the only things that matters are wins and losses. And the Jaguars, again, found a way to lose on Sunday. Each unit had a chance to win the game, and each side failed -- the defense allowed a 90-yard game-winning scoring drive, while Lawrence threw a pitiful interception on the final offensive play. They lost as a team because they played losing football.
Did they look better than last year? They did. But until they learn how to win, it doesn't matter how much better they look than last year's 3-14 squad, which was one of the worst teams in franchise history. This is the NFL. Moral victories are for high school and college. The only thing that matters at this level is the scoreboard, and the Jaguars still don't know how to operate with that mindset.
“You’ve just got to keep talking and keep showing them. Show them the good. Show them the positive," "Pederson said on Monday. "That was really my message to the team this morning, like, ‘Listen, guys. This is what we did during the week. This was my message during the week to you, then this is how we went out and played, so you’ve just got to keep revisiting and showing just like we talked about with the possessions in the second half, as bad as they were in the first half, to start the second half as good as they were, that’s what you’re capable of doing.
"If we just get ourselves out of the way and go play. Obviously, you’ve got to think out there, but as they say, don’t think, just react, you’re going to be better off. It’s an ongoing process. You do have some young players that are playing, and it’s a different game. We as a coaching staff, myself, have to continue to educate the players on that.”
Stats of the week
Via: @theryanmichael
Trevor Lawrence ranks 8th in pass completions (24), 9th in passing yards (275), 9th in passing first downs (13) and 11th in sack-percentage (4.5%).
Christian Kirk ranks 9th in receiving yards (117).
James Robinson ranks 6th in rushing YPC (6.0).
Devin Lloyd ranks 11th in total tackles (11).
Josh Allen ranks 4th in tackles for loss (2).
Lawrence struggled in 3rd down: completing only 3 of 10 (30.0%) for 35 yards (3.5 YPA), 1 INT (2.1 PR).
