Jaguars Mailbag: Settling the Walker vs. Hutchinson Draft Debate
Throughout this year's offseason Jaguar Report will take Jacksonville Jaguars-related questions from our readers across social media and answer them in a question-and-answer format, giving readers a chance to have their voices heard.
You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle or by submitting them here.
In this week's mailbag, we take a look at the upcoming NFL Draft, the debate between Aidan Hutchinson and Travon Walker at No. 1 overall and more.
Q: Would you rather take Hutchinson or Travon Walker plus a 2nd or 3rd round pick? Assuming the Lions really want Hutch and trade up.
A: This is a tough question. Ultimately, here is how I see Hutchinson and Walker as players, which to me is key to any scenario where you envision passing on one for the other.
To me, Hutchinson is someone who simply checks boxes. He has production (albeit most of it in 2021), tested like a legitimate all-time athlete for an edge rusher, has no off-field questions or work ethic concerns, is a pro-ready run defender, and has fans throughout the NFL. I have specific questions about his game such as his ability to consistently bend the edge and the issues his lack of length may present, but it would be foolish of me to say to bet against a prospect who checks enough boxes that any critiques look like nitpicking criticism. He is an imperfect prospect and isn't my top-ranked edge rusher, but he is clearly a high-floor player who still has some athletic upside and should provide immediate production.
Walker on the other hand requires much more projection. He does check off a lot of the same boxes as Hutchinson, specifically in terms of his run defense, elite athleticism and zero off-field red flags. But when it comes to production and actual pass-rushing reps, it is hard to make an argument today for Walker as a better pass-rusher than Hutchinson. He is the better and longer athlete and is a more versatile player due to his body type, but it is easier to see him on a Rashan Gary path than as an immediate contributor.
With that said, Walker not becoming a successful NFL player to some degree would be a massive shock based on his athletic traits alone. The trends of athletic edge defenders thriving in the NFL are clear as day and make it hard to bet against Walker in the long run. Add in the fact that Georgia's defense didn't really ask him to ever pin his ears back and rush the passer consistently and it is easy to project Walker as an eventual Pro Bowl-level pass rusher. Like Hutchinson, he is an imperfect prospect. But like Hutchinson, it is easy to see him as an impactful defender in the NFL.
So, to finally answer your question, I would take that deal. I wouldn't take Walker over Hutchinson if my choice was to simply choose between the two players because I do think immediate production is important for the Jaguars. But if I was offered any kind of compensation to move to No. 2 and secure Walker, I would jump at that deal. The players are close enough in grades to me that I wouldn't take Walker at No. 1, but I would use the No. 1 overall pick on Walker and other picks.
Q: From the media side, an easy way to break down Hutch vs Walker is floor/ceiling, respectively. Do you think FO is considering the need to just add a talented floor player to the roster over a potentially higher ceiling, in their decision?
A: I think it is easy to view the argument between the two players that way. Walker is seen as a home run potential type of player but still as a moldable piece of clay who is still raw in aspects of his game. On the other hand, Hutchinson is seen as more of a sure thing and day one impact. I think any team would have to consider these different development paths, but the question is whether all teams would actually see the players this way.
I do not know if the Jaguars would view either player in this way. Walker does have mountains of potential thanks to his rare athletic traits, but he is also a dang good football player today. He has to improve as a pass-rusher, but painting him as raw as a Taven Bryan-type prospect is simply false. And on the other hand, Hutchinson's athletic testing and late breakout at Michigan suggests he does indeed have a high ceiling that hasn't yet been reached. He never really gets labeled as that type of player, but he probably has more potential than given credit for.
To put it shortly, I think the Jaguars are going to take who they think the best football player is, not who will help them more either today or in the future. If the Jaguars think Walker will be a better player than Hutchinson in three years, they likely would have confidence is a better player than him today, and vice versa.
Q: Will Dylan Moses be on the 53 man roster?
A: That is a tough question because we didn't see Dylan Moses on the field at all last season. He spent the year rehabbing but is now completely cleared and is set to be on the field competing for a spot on the roster at training camp. With that said, the numbers are in Moses' favor today. The Jaguars had five linebackers on their first 53-man roster last season but three of those linebackers (Myles Jack, Damien Wilson and Dakota Allen) are no longer on the roster. Considering the only linebacker the Jaguars have added this season is Foyesade Oluokun, it makes sense to consider Moses a favorite to be one of the top-five linebackers.
Q: By now we have all seen the stats about how much worse Christian Kirk is playing as an outside WR. We have also seen how little Evan Engram played inline TE. The question is: how do they effectively coexist when they win the same way and more or less from the same position?
A: My honest answer? Expect a lot of 11 personnel. I do believe Doug Pederson when he says that their offense will be structured to have each wide receiver play each spot depending on the game and strategy, but that doesn't change the fact that Kirk is truly at his best operating out of the slot and away from press. When it comes to Engram, he isn't exactly a versatile player either. You can't ask him to do much in the running game so, one way or another, you are better off treating him as a big wide receiver.
With that said, I do think you can have each player coexist with each other. Each is a good athlete who can stress defenses vertically both on the outside and up the seams and each is an effective player after the catch. They are similar in skill set and usage, but the Jaguars aren't the first team to have two such players.
Q: Did the roster get that much better after FA? It feels like there was some improvement to the team but not much.
A: I do think the Jaguars got better. The question is how much better, especially compared to an AFC that is improving at a breakneck pace. The Jaguars, in my eyes, are better along the interior defensive line, secondary, tight end room, edge rush, interior pass-rush, and even wide receiver. There are good questions about if they have gotten any better at linebacker, how the offensive line is going to shake out and if the Jaguars improved enough at wide receiver considering the plentiful options presented to them this offseason.
In short, I do think the Jaguars are a better football team today than at this point last year. Brandon Scherff for example would be the best player on both teams. Darious Williams is a big addition to the secondary. And Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, while flawed, present upgrades to the offense. It hasn't been perfect and they haven't made any moves to truly swing momentum in their favor compared to other AFC squads, but I do think they are a better team than last year by a decent amount.
Q: Who are Mekhi Sargent and Jaron Jones (the two players we claimed off waivers from the Rams) and what could their roles be?
A: This is a good question. Mekhi Sargent is someone who bounced around the Titans and Rams last year after the Titans signed him as an undrafted free agent. A junior college product who wasn't ranked as a prospect out of high school. Sargent started for Iowa for three seasons and 354 rushes for 1,740 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and 20 touchdowns, along with 32 catches for 300 yards (9.4 yards per catch) and one touchdown. He is a stocky running back who carries a lot of power, but he did test like a below-average athlete. With this in mind, I think his role is as a depth player who fights for a spot at either the No. 3 or No. 4 running back.
As for Jamir Jones, he is a big-bodied edge defender who thrived at Notre Dame thanks to his ability to set a physical edge and stick his nose in the run game. Jones played in 15 games in 2021: three games with the Steelers, 10 games with the Rams and two games with the Jaguars. He isn't someone who I think should be assumed to have a roster spot, but he could fight for a spot as an edge defender and special teams contributor.
Q: What’s the likelihood that the Jags trade up to late teens or early 20s to snag a WR like Jameson Williams or Chris Olave? And what would it take to move up that far?
A: I really don't think they would do it. I think the Jaguars know they have to be aggressive at some point, but I also think they really value their draft picks, especially the early picks. I think moving up that far would cost the No. 33 pick and potentially the No. 70 pick as well, and I am not confident the Jaguars would be willing to be that bold when they added so many pass-catchers and still have needs elsewhere.
Q: It seems that National media (i.e. Daniel Jeremiah and PFF) is higher on Hutchinson than the local beat. Any insight or thoughts on why that is?
A: I genuinely think the lack of a bonafide No. 1 overall prospect in the class meant evaluators had to put that crown on someone, and Hutchinson ended up making the most sense. Like I said before, he checks a lot of boxes and will likely be a very productive NFL player. I would also contend that I do think the local beat is high on Hutchinson, just maybe not the best player in the draft high.
Q: Which WRs do you view as Week 1 impact players? Any of them have a realistic chance to fall to 33?
A: Just because of the state of football I think there are a lot of instant impact receivers not just in this draft class but in most recent draft classes. I don't think there are just a few players who could produce Week 1 and instantly slot into the offense, so I don't think the Jaguars would find many issues finding one at No. 33. Here are some receivers I think will be ready to translate to the pros right away.
- Chris Olave
- Drake London
- Garrett Wilson
- Alec Pierce
- Khalil Shakir
- George Pickens
- Skyy Moore
- Jahan Dotson
- David Bell
- John Metchie
- Jameson Williams (if healthy)
There are a few big names missing like Treylon Burks and Christian Watson, but I feel comfortable in each of these receivers being able to contribute in some way instantly as rookies. In terms of which ones are impact players, fit matters the most and the Jaguars have a chance to find the right fit at No. 33 or No. 65/No. 70.
Q: Does Linder's retirement impact what we may do in the draft? Do they feel Shatley is an adequate replacement?
A: I do think it impacts it because it means there is one less player capable of playing center on the roster, but I will say this: even if Linder didn't retire, the Jaguars were going to look at other options at center. Linder was never in the Jaguars' plans and his retirement, while significant, is a move that didn't take the team by surprise or wasn't something they have planned for. Shatley got paid like a starting center too (two-year, $4.80 million deal with $2.35 million guaranteed). I do think the Jaguars see Shatley as an adequate starter, but there is still a big need for depth and competition at the spot.
Q: How does Hutchinson project in the type of defense the jags will run under Caldwell?
I think this is the best article on the entire internet to read about Tampa Bay's pass-rush scheme and what we may see in Jacksonville this season. In this scenario, I would substitute Hutchinson in for Pierre-Paul and Allen for Barrett. In short, I see him mostly playing on the edge and pinning his ears back to rush the passer both as a stand-up linebacker and as a down lineman, but there are wrinkles in the scheme that Hutchinson and the Jaguars could throw at offenses.
