Jaguars Mailbag: Who Are the Favorites To Start Along the Defensive Line?
Each week during this year's offseason, Jaguar Report will take Jacksonville Jaguars-related questions from our readers across social media and answer them in a question-and-answer format, giving readers a chance to have their voices heard.
You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle or by submitting them here.
This week we take questions on who the favorites should be to start along the defensive line, recent departures and more.
Q: Which game this season is the most intriguing for you?
A: I ranked each of the season's 17 games in terms of intrigue to me following the schedule announcement, but I will go more in detail here.
I think the most fascinating game is the one that is going to be against the only team that rivaled the Jaguars in Sunday misery last season. There isn't another game with as many storylines as the Jaguars' Week 16 game against the New York Jets, which says a lot all things considered. No matter which thread you follow, there is substance to dive into.
The Jets game shouldn't be as fascinating as it is. There is a chance the Jaguars and Jets will both be playing for pride by the end of the season, while the Jaguars have other interesting games such as a Thursday Night Football bout against Joe Burrow and the franchise's first-ever game against Jalen Ramsey.
But this game still comes out on top in my eyes. We get to see two teams on similar timelines go head-to-head to show whose process really has the upper edge. Rookie quarterback against rookie quarterback. No. 1 pick vs. No. 2 pick. Urban Meyer vs. Robert Saleh. The first game between the two teams since the Jets infamously pulled off two late-season wins and ruined their chances to secure the top pick and draft Lawrence. No matter the record of either team entering Week 16, this is a game with undeniable short-term ramifications in terms of momentum among the AFC's up-and-comers.
Q: How do you see preseason games being split up since there is one less game now? Will the third game be the dress rehearsal still, or do you see the second game taking that spot now?
A: This is a great question and one I have asked myself more than a few times. My guess as of right now is teams make the second game the dress rehearsal and then let the starters sit for the third and final game while depth players use it as a final chance to show what they can do.
My main reasoning is how the schedule is set up. The Jaguars' Week 2 preseason game this year falls on Aug. 23. In 2019, the Week 3 preseason game -- which was the final game the Jaguars' starters played in -- was played on Aug. 22. By having starters play in Week 2, they still have the same amount of time to prepare for Week 1 as they would have in a normal four-week preseason.
Q: I want to know how players are doing. Any surprises? How are WR, OL and LB doing?
Organized team activities are immensely important because they are when players and coaches can truly begin to implement and grow in the defensive, offensive and special teams schemes. With this in mind, these practices are just in shorts and helmets. There are no pads, so things are more or less on-air and seven-on-seven. As a result, it is hard to really gauge the front seven or the offensive line.
With this in mind, I think the Jaguars' starting receivers looked as advertised in the media's viewing last Thursday. Phillip Dorsett and Terry Godwin each made a few solid grabs as well, enforcing the idea that the unit has solid depth. The wide receiver position is Jacksonville's deepest on paper and so far looks like it on the field, but context is needed.
Q: In our base 3-4 alignment, who do you see starting as the down lineman?
I think you can pencil in Malcom Brown and Roy Robertson-Harris as starters. The Jaguars have a good young nose tackle in DaVon Hamilton, but Brown is an established run defender who has years of experience and success as a starting nose tackle. As for Robertson-Harris, the Jaguars didn't make him one of the team's highest-paid defenders for nothing. Expect him to start at five-technique and play multiple roles on third-downs.
The other defensive line spot, that is the one I am not sure about. I think Adam Gotsis and Dawuane Smoot will both fight for snaps, but Jay Tufele is my pick for snaps, even as a rookie. The Jaguars' depth chart along the three-technique spot is shaky at best, and Tufele is the best option over a player like Taven Bryan. The Jaguars could experiment with other players in the role, making this role a position battle to watch moving forward.
Q: Where does Jihad Ward fit in the 3-4 and 4-3 defense? I've seen some say as edge depth, but at 287 pounds is that really his best fit?
A: While you are correct in theory, the best thing we can really do is look at Ward's usage in Baltimore's defense last year. Perhaps the Jaguars have different plans for him, but Pro Football Focus has him with 75 and 72 snaps at left and outside linebacker in 2020, while having no more than 31 snaps elsewhere. He played on the edge in Baltimore, so I think that is likely where we can expect to see him in Jacksonville.
Q: How many wins this year?
A: I truly think a season where the Jaguars win between six and eight games is realistic (even though I said they would go 6-10 last year!). Some may see that as a disappointing season since it is still in the double-digit loss range, and it should be noted that a season like that isn't exactly good enough. But the Jaguars have operated like a team planning to make a bigger jump in the future as they build the foundation now. I think they are a more competitive team in 2021, but I don't think playoffs are there just yet.
Q: It's been a pretty turbulent off-season in terms of the coaching staff/front office, most recently with Sorenson replacing Schneider after just 4 months. Do you think the replacement replacements starting to be required in the new regime a case of unfortunate coincidences or symptomatic of a deeper issue?
A: So far, we have seen three recent hires leave the Urban Meyer/Trent Baalke regime. The scouts who left the franchise shouldn't be counted into this because it is common practice for new leadership circles to keep the previous regime's scouts in place until after the draft.
I think it should be concerning that there have been three departures (Chris Doyle, Brian Schneider, and Karim Kassam), and context is needed. The Doyle situation was a misstep to begin with -- it is a blight on Urban Meyer and the franchise that he lasted fewer than two days on the job before resigning, mostly because Doyle very likely never should have been hired to begin with.
As for Schneider, who left the team for personal reasons two weeks ago, this is another hire that had some red flags on it. Schneider left the Seahawks for personal reasons shortly before Week 1 in 2020 as well. The Kassam departure is extremely curious as well considering his position and short tenure. The Jaguars, Meyer, and Baalke all have reputations for high turnover around them, so it is likely fair to at least raise an eyebrow. This will be an interesting path to track moving forward.
Q: Realistically what are sack projections for Allen, Chaisson, Smoot, and Smith? Smoot’s the only one who had consistent production the last 2 seasons, but I feel like Allen will get back on track and Chaisson will hit home more this year.
A: Here are my way-too-early guesses.
Allen: 10.0.
Chaison: 6.
Smoot: 5.
Smith: 2.
I think Allen has a rebound season thanks to improved health and getting back to playing outside linebacker. K'Lavon Chaisson is a player who I feel good about getting a good amount of pressures and quarterback hits, but we need to see more proof as a finisher before we project him to record too many sacks. With this in mind, the new scheme alone should get him a few. I then think Smoot can grind out five sacks as a rotational lineman who plays inside and out, while Smith gets a few sacks based off his raw tools alone.
Q: Am I crazy to think the 1-15 season was overrated and we are closer to winning the division than 1-15?
A: I don't think it is too far-fetched, but I would say the Jaguars are closer to the middle than anything else. The Titans have lost a few pieces, but they are better than the Jaguars until the Jaguars can consistently beat them. The Colts have question marks and the Texans are a mess, though, so it isn't outrageous to think the Jaguars aren't far off from the top of the division if things go well in 2021.
Q: Do you expect to see any cuts from the Jags that may catch some fans by surprise?
A: I absolutely do, which is actually a good thing from the perspective that it means the roster got better. Doing a 53-man roster projection is a lot tougher this year than it was in 2020 because the overall depth and competition have improved.
With this in mind, I think most of last year's draft picks following round three should at least be considered potential candidates to be cut, which would surprise many fans. This Jaguars regime didn't draft those players, though, and few stood out enough in 2020 to secure them a spot with the new leadership.
