Jaguars vs. Colts: 5 Questions and Game Predictions
The Jacksonville Jaguars need a win in the worst way possible. Luckily for them, their Week 2 opponent is one of the few who they hold a positive streak over.
The Jaguars (0-1) have not lost to the Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1) at home since 2014 when Gus Bradley and Chuck Pagano were head coaches and Blake Bortles and Andrew Luck were the quarterbacks. Now, the Jaguars get another chance to extend one of their few successful streaks.
So, how do we at Jaguar Report see Sunday playing out? John Shipley and Brett Hawn weigh in below.
1) Can Trevor Lawrence bounce back against the Colts, or is it bound to be a long season?
Shipley: I think he could have a big game because the Jaguars have the scheme advantage. Doug Pederson should be able to scheme up Gus Bradley's Cover 3 defense, a defensive with a structure that should allow Lawrence to get easy gimmie yards underneath. This is where Lawrence was at his best last week, so hopefully for his sake he can continue it this week. Then again, Lawrence will likely have a handful of throws each game that makes you scratch your head, and it wouldn't surprise me to see those play a big role on Sunday.
Hawn: Saying it’s going to be a long season after one game is premature. Sure, Trevor Lawrence held massive expectations against a vulnerable Washington Commanders defense, but that loss wasn’t entirely on him. Stats do not tell the full story and most importantly Lawrence showed poise in the pocket and was in control, a huge plus from last season. The possibility for Trevor Lawrence to bounce back against the Colts is there.
2) Will the Jaguars actually be able to slow down Jonathan Taylor?
Shipley: To an extent, but can a defense truly slow down Jonathan Taylor? His four worst rushing performances as a pro came as a rookie in 2020. Since then, he has rushed for 100 yards or more 14 times, including six games where he hit the 150-yard mark. The Jaguars have a strong defensive front and Devin Lloyd was solid against the run a week ago, but I think even the best defensive front can only hold Taylor at bay. He is that good. He will get his big runs and production on Sunday; it will be up to the Jaguars to win on the snaps he doesn't dominate.
Hawn: Jonathan Taylor is the cream of the crop when it comes to running backs in the NFL. In a tie against the Houston Texans last week, Taylor amassed 161 yards on 31 touches (5.2ypc) and a touchdown, continuing his dominant ways. The Jaguars did well against the run last game, allowing 85 total yards on 28 carries to a backfield led by Antonio Gibson. Gibson is no Jonathon Taylor. As the great Dan Patrick once said, “you can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.”
3) Who is the most important player on offense and defense?
Shipley: On offense, I will go with James Robinson. Robinson is arguably the best player on Jacksonville's offense who isn't named Brandon Scherff, and he should be treated as such via the game plan. Whether it is feeding Robinson as a downhill rusher in the running game or taking advantage of his pass-catching traits against a soft Cover 3 scheme, it will be critical for the Jaguars to get Robinson even more involved this week than he was last week.
On defense, I will go with Andre Cisco. If the Jaguars are going to win this game, they will need the defense to once again create turnovers at a consistent clip. Matt Ryan won't make many bad decisions, but it will be up to Cisco to ensure the Jaguars take advantage of the few occasions where he does. Cisco had an up-and-down week last week but had plenty of learning moments in just his fourth career start. If he improves this week, the Jaguars could be in good shape.
Hawn: On offense, Travis Etienne is the most important player. The young running back had an eventful NFL debut. Most will remember it for a dropped catch on fourth down that could’ve been a touchdown. Despite the blunder, Etienne showcased his explosiveness and athletic ability and did well on the ground, amassing 47 yards on only four carries. In a game where the Colts' edge rush will be giving the offensive line fits, the Jaguars will need Etienne to handle passes out of the backfield and force the Colts to respect the pass.
On defense, it is critical to slow down Jonathan Taylor as much as humanly possible. That’s where stout run defender Foley Fatukasi comes into play. With the Jets last season, Fatukasi was a run-stuffing machine, constantly demanding extra defensive attention and making life miserable for interior linemen. Most importantly, he was effective in disrupting the rhythm of the opposing rushing attack, something the Jags will desperately need to achieve victory against a division rival.
4) Biggest storyline entering Sunday?
Shipley:
The Colts haven't put Week 18 behind them, making their entire offseason about rebounding against the Jaguars after a shocking loss to them in the final week of the 2021 season. The Jaguars, by comparison, have mostly put that game behind them due to new staff and mostly new roster. So in short, you have one team hyper-focused on what this game means due to the past, while another is treating it as just another AFC South game. It is an important game, but maybe more to the Colts and their psyche. So, which strategy ends up right? Sunday will be our answer.
Hawn: Can the Jags extend their win streak against the Colts at home? The Colts haven’t won a game at TIAA Bank Field since 2014, and the Jags will hope that this will work to their advantage.
The Colts tied a very winnable matchup against the Texans in Week 1, something that surely ignited the competitive fire and desire for a bounce-back effort. It is up to the Jaguars to extinguish the flames.
5) Score prediction?
Shipley: I am conflicted. It is hard to justify picking the Jaguars in a game since they are 5-30 over their last 35 games with plenty of winnable contests ending up as losses. With that said, three of those wins have come against the Colts, and this Jaguars team is arguably more talented and better-coached on offense than any of the Jaguars teams that have topped Frank Reich's Colts since 2019.
Jaguars 24, Colts 23. If the Jaguars don't win this one, it may be awhile until they get picked again.
Hawn: Momentum may be in the Jags favor because of recent history, but I don't think that grants them the win this week over a tough Colts team. The winless streak will be broken in Duval County to the tune of a Colts 31-14 victory.
