4 Takeaways on What the Titans' Trade for Julio Jones Means for the Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a new star to try to slow down.
After weeks of back-and-forth both behind closed doors and in the public media, the Atlanta Falcons finally granted All-Pro and Pro Bowl receiver Julio Jones with a trade, sending him to the Tennessee Titans and the AFC South in exchange for two non-first round selections.
What does the trade of Jones to a divisional rival mean for the Jaguars moving forward? We break down the implications below.
Additions of Shaquill Griffin and Tyson Campbell could not have come at a better time
There was a good amount of handwringing when the Jaguars selected Georgia cornerback Tyson Campbell at No. 33 overall. The Jaguars had drafted CJ Henderson at No. 9 overall in 2020 and then made Shaquill Griffin their highest-paid defensive back in March with a three-year $40 million deal. For many, the drafting of Campbell was seen as a bit of overkill on top of a big-money free agent and a top-10 pick, but the Jaguars' logic on draft night was that they felt like cornerback needed to be one of the deepest positions on the team.
“Oh yeah, that’s one of the reasons that we took him, but his flexibility — because you’re going to get your best players on the field and we’re going to be, if we can hold up, we’re going to play much more man coverage. That hurt the Jaguars last year," Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer said the night Campbell was selected. "That was an area of need, we didn’t play well in the back end of our defense."
A month later, the additions of both Campbell and Griffin could be potential difference-makers for a defense that will now have to play the duo of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Had the Jaguars not drafted Campbell, they would be an injury away to Henderson or Griffin from having backups have to play against arguably the NFL's best receiver duo. Now, the Jaguars have the number of investments at cornerback to have a better chance to withstand the type of challenge the Titans now possess at receiver.
Should the Jaguars have made this deal?
When looking at the return the Falcons got for Jones, it is fair to wonder how many other teams in the NFL should have made the same deal, if not one that was slightly better. The Titans had to send just a 2022 second-round draft pick and a 2023 fourth-round selection to the Falcons, getting Jones and a 2023 sixth-round pick back in return. Yes, Jones is an aging star on a bloated deal who missed nearly half the season in 2020, but he is still an elite player. At the end of the day, the Jets got more for Sam Darnold than the Falcons got for Jones. When looking at it from this perspective, it is hard to say that 31 teams in the NFL shouldn't have been ringing the Falcons' phones off the hook.
But should the Jaguars have been in on the market? Likely not, even if it is unfortunate for them that Jones ended up with a divisional rival. Why not? Because it is worth noting that a 2022 second-round pick from the Jaguars could be immensely different from one from the Titans. The Titans won 11 games last season and were already the favorites to win the AFC South, so a second-round pick from them is nearly an early third. Meanwhile, the Jaguars could have a second-round pick within the top-45. Ultimately the Jaguars' timeline just didn't match Jones and this stage of his career and the compensation would have been more significant if the Jaguars were the ones to make the deal. Jones would have made the Jaguars better, but it makes sense why they weren't in on trading for the star receiver.
Jaguars odds of winning the AFC South in 2021 have become a bit slimmer
The Jaguars' chances to win the AFC South in 2021 were already not as great as some of their rivals, including the Titans. Even when the Titans were set to start Josh Reynolds at receiver opposite of Brown, the Jaguars still looked like the third-best team in the AFC South for 2021 with the chance to creep closer and closer to the top. But now that the Titans have swapped Reynolds for one of the NFL's most talented receivers, a rebuilding Jaguars team has seen their odds to win the AFC South dwindle a bit.
The Titans were a prime regression before the addition of Jones due to the departures of Arthur Smith, Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis, but the addition of Jones at least offsets the losses of Jonnu Smith and Davis. The Titans scored 30 points per game last season, so the offense should be expected to hit on all cylinders again in 2021. The Jaguars were already running behind the Titans in the race for the AFC South entering June, but adding Jones to an offense the Jaguars have already previously struggled to stop is bad news for Jacksonville.
Why the Titans could be more of a team to worry about in 2021 than beyond
The addition of Jones makes the Titans of the AFC's best squads in 2021. They aren't quite Kansas City Chiefs good, but they should at least be put into that second tier with the Buffalo Bills. Jones is that good of a player and adding him to an offense with two top playmakers in Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown is lethal. With this said, the Titans' time at the top of the AFC South could be limited to 2021 instead of over the long term.
Jones is still an elite receiver, but he is nearing the end of his days as one. Brown will soon be commanding a large contract, likely among the largest of any receiver in the NFL, which could limit what the Titans could do cap-wise. And Henry, for as incredibly talented as he is, will have to prove that he can be the rare running back who can still be productive after years and years of high usage and tread on the tires. The Titans' offense should explode in 2021, but 2022 and beyond is another question.
