Scheme Change Necessitates Personnel Change: 4 Observations on the Jaguars Trading Joe Schobert
The Jacksonville Jaguars made another major change on Thursday, trading away veteran linebacker Joe Schobert to the Pittsburgh Steelers only one year after signing him to a five-year deal worth over $50 million.
Why did the Jaguars make the massive change ahead of their first preseason game? What does it mean for the defense moving forward? Did the Jaguars get good value? We examine all of this and more in our breakdown of the move.
The reasons the Jaguars traded Schobert are clear when put into the context that Schobert would have been a backup in 2021
Whether the Jaguars made a correct move in trading Schobert will be debated for some time, but it is at least important to understand why the Jaguars traded a serviceable linebacker for minimal compensation one year after signing him to a massive contract. The move was surprising on the surface -- especially since Schobert was still getting some starters reps in training camp -- but ultimately, the Jaguars made their priorities clear by trading the veteran linebacker.
In short, Schobert wasn't going to be on the field much for the 2021 Jaguars. Jacksonville signed former Kansas City Chiefs starter Damien Wilson this offseason, which was the first sign of the Jaguars potentially shaking up the linebacker room after signing Schobert 18 months ago. He is a much more physical player who is a more run-oriented defender, while Schobert has more range and better coverage ability. The Jaguars already have a rangy linebacker in Myles Jack, so they seemingly more or less wanted a downhill thumper on the field with him to an extent. That player is much more Wilson than it is Schobert.
Wilson has shared first-team reps with Schobert throughout camp and has even outplayed him in many regards this summer. Once it became clear to the Jaguars' staff that Wilson would be the starting linebacker next to Jack, Schobert's value plummeted. He doesn't offer much special teams value, so the Jaguars essentially would have been paying him as one of the NFL's highest-paid linebackers to warm the bench in 2021.
With that said, the Jaguars cutting Schobert would have added $7 million in dead cap. If that number was lower, he likely would have been cut by the team. By trading him, they save that $7 million and free up a roster spot for a player they didn't see a role for, and get something in return.
Was this the right move? I lean toward no, because the Jaguars could have released Schobert next offseason for nothing. Having Schobert as depth for Wilson in the event of injury could be more valuable than a late-round pick in the future, even if he wasn't going to be on the roster past 2021.
This move doesn't make the Jaguars any better this year or moving forward, but it does give the team a chance to remake the roster even further. In short, this move shows they didn't see a role for Schobert that would justify him being one of the highest-paid players on the team.
Dave Caldwell, Jaguars missed on the Schobert evaluation in 2020
One year later, the Jaguars' 2020 free agency class is no more. Schobert was the only big signing of last year's group, but he was the last man standing as well. No other member of the group is still on the roster, with several never playing a down for the team.
And with the Jaguars trading Schobert just 18 months after Dave Caldwell and Doug Marrone signed him to a five-year deal, the final emphatic blow has been dealt to Caldwell's last free agent class. This is because the reason Schobert was traded a year after Caldwell signed him is in large part because Caldwell and the Jaguars missed on the evaluation of the former Cleveland Browns linebacker.
In short, the Jaguars signed Schobert in hopes of him being a solid run-defending middle linebacker who could compliment Myles Jack's skill set. Schobert has always been better against the pass than the run, though, so this never made much sense from the offset. By signing him to begin with, Caldwell and the Jaguars were putting two similar style linebackers on the field.
"He brings an ability to tackle and diagnose plays. He’s a true middle linebacker and has played it at a high level. He’s really going to help us, not only at the MIKE linebacker position, but he also helps us overall across our whole linebacking corps," Marrone said after the Jaguars signed Schobert.
If Schobert was that style of linebacker, the Jaguars likely keep him in 2021. Instead, they will turn to Damien Wilson to be that thumping linebacker in the middle of the defense. It isn't Schobert's fault the Jaguars got the scouting wrong in 2020, but it did lead to his eventual departure.
Jaguars lose this deal in terms of value
While it is both clear and understandable why the Jaguars moved on from Schobert once they realized he didn't fit their plans, it doesn't mean they "won" the trade or even got good value. Instead, it is Schobert had a bit of a down season last year and struggled against the run, but he is still a good player who is a starting-level talent. Getting a late-round pick for him, which NFL Network's Ian Rapoport has reported, isn't exactly getting fair value.
The Steelers don't have a fourth- or fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, so the highest pick the Jaguars could get in next year's draft would come in the sixth-round. If the Jaguars wanted a higher Day 3 pick, they would have to settle with taking a pick all the way in 2023. It is understandable why the Jaguars dealt Schobert, but they won't be getting any compensation in return that matches Schobert's talent or value.
3 safety looks could increase exponentially, potentially clearing a way to the field for Andre Cisco
The Baltimore Ravens led the NFL in dime personnel usage in each of the last two seasons, often having one linebacker on the field when they weren't in a base defense. With the Jaguars trading Schobert, it certainly looks like that could be the case in 2021 as the Jaguars attempt to compensate for the loss in coverage ability they have now sustained. In short, it would make sense for Wilson to be on the field when offenses are attempting to run the ball. This is when the Jaguars would have a true 3-4 defense, after all, and would be more geared to stop the run in terms of their personnel on the field.
But as teams spread out the formation and attempt to pass more, the Jaguars may be able to utilize their deep safety room. Instead of having two linebackers on the field, the Jaguars could turn to a third safety to play in the box in passing situations, something Rayshawn Jenkins, Josh Jones, Daniel Thomas and third-round pick Andre Cisco all somewhat have the skill set to do.
The Jaguars lost coverage ability by trading Schobert out for Wilson, but they could potentially look to compensate by once again taking a page out of the Ravens playbook under Joe Cullen. This could especially help Cisco find the field early, which otherwise could prove to be difficult as he fights for reps among several veterans.
