2021 Free Agency: If Denver Shocks and Lets Justin Simmons Walk, Should the Jaguars Pursue Him?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are entering the 2021 offseason with as many question marks on the roster as available dollar bills in the team's cap space. Well, maybe not quite, but close enough.
The Jaguars have already undergone a lot of change this offseason, hiring a new head coach in Urban Meyer and a new general manager in Trent Baalke. Now the Jaguars will have to undergo even more change by overhauling the roster. The first step of that will come in March during free agency.
Jacksonville leads the NFL in available cap space, so it can be reasonably assumed they will be big spenders on March 17 and beyond.
With this in mind, we are going to look at some of the top free agents over the next month and determine if they fit the Jaguars moving forward.
We first covered impending free agent interior defensive lineman Leonard Williams and now will move into the defensive secondary by breaking down Denver safety Justin Simmons.
If Simmons hits the market in March, should the Jaguars seriously pursue him? We examine here.
Overview
A third-round pick out of Boston College in 2016, Justin Simmons didn't take very long to turn into one of the NFL's top safeties. Simmons started three games as a rookie but has started 61 of 64 games in the four seasons since, becoming the key piece to Denver's secondary during that span.
A second-team All-Pro in 2019, Simmons was named a Pro Bowler in 2020 following a year in which he recorded a career-high five interceptions. Simmons also recorded nine pass deflections, a fumble recovery, three tackles for loss, and 96 tackles. This came one year after he recorded four interceptions and a career-high 15 pass deflections, giving him consecutive seasons of elite production.
Simmons and the Broncos are now in a stalemate, much like they were in the 2020 offseason. The Broncos failed to reach a deal with Simmons last season and franchise tagged him. Now, it appears the Broncos very well could be on the verge of repeating placing a tag on Simmons to ensure he doesn't suit up for a new team next year.
But what if Denver opts not to place the tag on Simmons and the veteran safety walks away from the Broncos in March? While unlikely, this is always a potential scenario until the Broncos officially tag him.
What Does Justin Simmons Do Well?
It would be much easier to point out what Simmons doesn't do well. In terms of pure strengths and weaknesses, the scale tips heavily one way for Simmons. He is a bonafide complete player, which isn't exactly common in the NFL, let alone at safety.
While many safeties are either best in coverage or best against the run and in the box, Simmons can do it all. He has phenomenal range and can make plays on the ball from the hash marks of the field, whether as a single-high or a split safety. He combines terrific instincts and anticipation with his stellar change of direction and explosion to create a nightmare defender for quarterbacks who test him deep. Add in an impressive vertical (41-inch vertical jump at 2016 NFL Scouting Combine) and Simmons is an ideal roaming safety.
Simmons does much more than that, however. He also has the footwork and overall fluidity to match up in man coverage with wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. In a league that is defined by mismatches, Simmons is a rare defender who can match up with virtually any player on the field.
He is also an adept short zone defender, in large part because of his high mental processing ability. He is able to read the eyes of quarterbacks and get into the proper drop to ensure he can either make a play on the ball or limit yards after the catch.
Simmons is a fierce and consistent tackler when lined up close to the box as well. According to Pro Football Focus, he has 56 run stops over the last two seasons, ranking in the top-10 among safeties in each season. He has good instincts for when to shoot gaps and isn't afraid to be physical with blockers or ball carriers.
In short, Simmons can do it all at safety. He has turned into a total package at the position, and any red flags to his game are either minor or a result of nitpicking. There is a chance he has thrived so well due to the presence of Broncos head coach and defensive mastermind Vic Fangio, but the tape shows Simmons is an elite player at his position.
How Justin Simmons Would Fit With the Jaguars
The obvious answer is that Simmons would fit extremely well. New defensive coordinator Joe Cullen is likely implementing a similar scheme to the one he learned over the last five years in Baltimore, a scheme that asks its safeties to play nearly every single role on the defense.
Deep zones, short zones, man coverage, blitz, they have to do it all. Luckily for Simmons, he is one of the few safeties in the NFL who can say that he can truly perform well when asked to handle each of these responsibilities. It is for that reason that he has become an elite NFL safety, and that reason why he likely will not even hit the market.
Simmons would fit the Jaguars' as a play-making safety well enough to the point where if Denver shocks the league and lets him hit the market, the Jaguars should make him their top priority -- even over Leonard Williams. Williams and interior defensive line is a greater need than safety, but there is an argument to make for Simmons as the best defender currently set to be a free agent in March.
Verdict
If the Jaguars have any shot whatsoever at pursuing Simmons, they need to pounce on it. Whether this is via free agency or even a tag-and-trade, the Jaguars need to understand that Simmons could transform the entire complexion of their secondary.
The issue here is that Denver appears to know just how important and talented Simmons is. They have seen him thrive on and off the field over the last five seasons and presently look unlike to let him walk in March, with the odds of a second franchise tag seemingly rising by the day.
So yes, the Jaguars should pursue Simmons if they can. It is just unlikely they will have a chance to.
