4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 11 Vs. the Steelers
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville Jaguars players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.
With the Jaguars (1-8) coming off an eighth straight loss to the Green Bay Packers, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 11 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
RT Jawaan Taylor
Poor Jake Luton.
In his two games played thus far, Luton has been pressured on 34.2% of his dropbacks, which is the 15th-highest rate among 41 quarterbacks with 75-plus dropbacks this season per Pro Football Focus. Unfortunately, Luton has not played well under pressure- in fact, he’s been abysmal. On his 79 dropbacks under pressure, he’s completed five of 21 passes (23.8% completion percentage), taken five sacks, and thrown two interceptions. That adds up to a 0.8 passer rating (!). Arizona’s Max Hall in 2010 is the only qualifying quarterback with a worse passer rating under pressure (0.4) in PFF’s database, which goes back to 2006.
Luton has faced the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers, which rank 30th and 27th, respectively, in pressure rate this season. This week’s opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, rank first in pressure rate, and by a very wide margin- the difference between Pittsburgh and second-ranked Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the same difference between the Bucs and the 23-ranked Buffalo Bills.
Pittsburgh generates so much pressure in part because it has the third-highest blitz rate in the league, and considering it ranks second in ESPN’s team pass rush win rate metric, its scheme is clearly working. The heavy-lifting is done mostly by edge rushers T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree, each of whom rank top-eight in both pressures and sacks among all defenders this season.
Watt ranks third in both categories and boasts the highest individual pass-rush win rate in the league. He is an obvious mismatch against Jaguars right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who has allowed the second-most sacks and pressures among all offensive linemen this season.
Watt is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate who can only hope to be contained, not stopped. The entire offensive line will need to have an exceptional day, but Taylor especially will need to have one of the best performances of his young career in order to give Luton and the offense any shot of offensive production on Sunday.
WR Keelan Cole
Considering the strength of Pittsburgh’s defensive line and the fact that Jacksonville is 10-point underdogs, the Jaguars will likely need a strong performance through the air in order to have a chance in this game.
Keelan Cole ranks second behind D.J. Chark in targets, receptions and receiving yards this season, but he ranks ahead of Chark and the rest of the team in yards per target, passer rating when targeted, and Expected Points Added per target. Cole drew just two targets in Luton’s first career start in Week 9 against Houston but had seven targets and a team-high five receptions last week along with a beautiful punt return.
This season, Pittsburgh has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to running backs and the third-fewest to tight ends but just the 15th-fewest to wide receivers. The Steelers have also surrendered 13 touchdowns to opposing wideouts, tied for third-most in the league.
Cole specifically will have a tough matchup against Steelers slot cornerback Cameron Sutton, who ranks fifth in PFF coverage grade among eligible cornerbacks this year. Cole will need to continue his efficient play in order to take pressure off Chark and give the offense a chance of keeping up with Pittsburgh’s offense.
CB Sidney Jones
Sidney Jones continued his strong season with Jacksonville on Sunday, as he recorded a team-high seven tackles along with an interception and a pass breakup. However, he also ceded 112 yards and a touchdown as the closest defender on six plays, with most of that damage coming on a 78-yard Marquez Valdes-Scantling touchdown.
According to PFF, Jones played shadow coverage for the first time this season, as he trailed Valdes-Scantling on 47.1% of his routes and allowed two receptions on four targets. Jones and C.J. Henderson, who shadowed Davante Adams, were no match against Aaron Rodgers- but could be against Ben Roethlisberger.
As USA Today’s Steven Ruiz has repeatedly contended, Roethlisberger simply doesn’t have the arm that he used to. Among 34 quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts this season, Big Ben ranks 10th in deep ball rate but 29th in adjusted completion percentage and 26th in passer rating on such throws.
Big Ben ranks 15th in PFF pass grade, 20th in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating and 27th in Next Gen Stats’ Completion Percentage Over Expected, but he ranks fifth in Expected Points Added per play in large part because of his talented receivers. Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson each rank top-20 in yards after catch per reception (YAC/R) and YAC/R Above Expectation among qualifying wide receivers this season.
If Todd Wash continues to deploy man coverage at a relatively high rate, Jones’ matchup with Claypool or Johnson on the perimeter (as well as Henderson’s against the remaining receiver, as Juju Smith-Schuster will likely be covered primarily by Tre Herndon in the slot) will have a huge impact on the defense’s overall performance. If Jacksonville’s outside corners are able to run with Pittsburgh’s outside receivers, Roethlisberger could have a tougher day than many likely anticipate.
LB Myles Jack
Through the first month of the season, Myles Jack was the second-highest graded off-ball linebacker in the league (per PFF)- but since then, Jack ranks just 30th. He missed Weeks 5 and 7 with an ankle injury and last week was his first that he didn’t appear on the team’s injury report since Week 4.
Jack has remained dominant in the run game, as he produced a 76.8 run defense grade in Weeks 1-4 (fourth-best among linebackers) and an 88.2 grade since (best), but his performance against the pass has clearly slipped.
Jack shouldn’t have too much trouble personally against the Steelers, as Pittsburgh ranks 31st in target rate to running backs and 20th in target rate to tight ends, and James Conner and Eric Ebron each rank 40th at their respective positions in PFF receiving grade. Still, Jack’s play in coverage- and the health of his ankle- will be situations to monitor this week and moving forward.
