4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 14 Vs. the Titans
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville Jaguars players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.
With the Jaguars (1-11) coming off an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 14 against the Tennessee Titans.
WR Collin Johnson
Fifth-round rookie wide receiver Collin Johnson never played more than 25 offensive snaps through the first 11 weeks of the season- he played on 19.3% of all offensive snaps in that span. Then, in week 12, D.J. Chark and Chris Conley were ruled out with injuries, which allowed Johnson to play a career-high 52 snaps (80%) and go off for four catches, 96 yards, and a score. Chark and Conley both returned to the lineup in week 13, but Johnson earned 39 snaps (55%) while Conley played just eight (11%).
Johnson admittedly would have played fewer snaps if it weren’t for Laviska Shenault’s thumb injury that caused him to miss the entire second half. But Johnson made another pitch for more playing time, as he hauled in four receptions for 66 yards on six targets.
In the past two weeks, Johnson has 14 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown (all team-highs) along with an 86.2 Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 121.7 passer rating when targeted. Prior to that stretch, Johnson netted just 12 targets for 69 yards and one touchdown in 10 games and had a 57.7 receiving grade and 67.7 passer rating when targeted.
Assuming that Shenault is able to return, Johnson will likely be fourth on the receiver depth chart behind Chark, Shenault, and Keelan Cole, but the fact that it seems he’s surpassed Conley is significant. Conley has struggled with drops and consistency this year, but he’s the eldest player and best blocker in the receiver room as well as a team captain and leader, so it says a lot that Johnson played more snaps than him despite his underwhelming production.
Johnson’s recent performances have been encouraging to say the least. His playing time and production is something to monitor this week against the Tennessee Titans, which ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, and the remainder of the season as well.
C Tyler Shatley
Backup offensive linemen Tyler Shatley has gotten plenty of work this season for the Jaguars and has filled in nicely so far. Shatley played center in weeks 2, 3, 4 and 10 when Brandon Linder missed time due to injury and played left guard in weeks 11 and 12 in relief for Andrew Nowell, who is now on injured reserve.
Last week, Shatley started at left guard with Norwell on IR but ended up switching over to center after Linder left with an ankle injury. Rookie Ben Bartch took over at left guard and played the best game of his young career, as he allowed just one pressure and zero quarterback hits after allowing six pressures and three quarterback hits in his previous three games combined. Bartch is another name to watch if Linder isn’t able to play on Sunday.
The Titans rank second-to-last in both sacks and pressure rate this season. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is currently on injured reserve, which leaves second-year defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons as arguably the only threat on Tennessee’s defensive line. In the teams’ week 2 matchup, Simmons registered just two pressures and one tackle as he earned one of the lowest PFF grade of his season.
Norwell and Linder have been the Jaguars’ two best offensive linemen this season. Shatley has proven himself as a capable backup, though- and Bartch is a fine filler as well in the event that Linder ends up missing the contest- so Jacksonville should be able to handle Tennessee up front and hopefully pave the way for James Robinson, who had one of his four career 100-yard games in the first Titans game.
DE K’Lavon Chaisson and OLB Joe Giles-Harris
One of the Jaguars’ most popular defensive packages is the 4-3 under front, which was utilized in Seattle’s Legion of Boom era and then brought to Jacksonville by former head coach Gus Bradley and current defensive coordinator Todd Wash, each of whom coached for Seattle in the early 2010s.
In a 4-3 under, there are four defensive linemen, one on-ball linebacker, and two off-ball linebackers, with four secondary players as well. Take a look at the picture below from Week 12 against Cleveland (image courtesy of NFL Gamepass).
The four defensive linemen are circled. Jacksonville is playing one-high (one safety over the top) with man coverage underneath, as its defenders are lined up right across from Cleveland’s receivers and tight ends. Kamalei Correa is playing at “S” (SAM/strongside linebacker), with Joe Schobert in his typical “M” position (Mike/middle linebacker) and Myles Jack at his usual “W” spot (Will/weakside linebacker).
The 4-3 under is much better equipped to stop the run than the pass, and considering the pass-happy state of the league, it wasn’t used regularly by the Jaguars this season until the past two weeks.
In week 12, Jacksonville faced the Cleveland Browns, which features lots of heavy personnel (few wide receivers) and an outside zone running scheme. The Jaguars used its 4-3 under look more to try to stop the run- but despite Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt facing loaded boxes (eight-plus defenders near the line of scrimmage) on over 45% of their respective carries according to Next Gen Stats, the duo still racked up over 200 rushing yards (7.2 yards per carry).
In week 13, Jacksonville faced the Minnesota Vikings, which has a very similar scheme to Cleveland. The Jaguars actually upped their usage of the 4-3 under, but made personnel changes this time- Correa was ruled out due to a hamstring injury, and second-year undrafted linebacker Joe Giles-Harris took his place at SAM. Giles Harris had played five career defensive snaps prior to week 12, then played 16 in week 12, then got the start and played 63 defensive snaps in week 13.
The former Blue Devil excelled, as he earned an 80.6 PFF defensive grade (third-best on the team) and racked up four pressures along with two tackles. He turned each of his pressures into quarterback hits- no Jaguar has more than three quarterback hits in a single game this season.
First-round rookie K’Lavon Chaisson also played more snaps (48, his most since week 6), as he rotated with Dawuane Smoot at defensive end across the formation from Giles-Harris. Chaisson had arguably his best game of the season, as he racked up a team-high five pressures and had two tackles of his own.
Other than switching around players, Wash also blitzed aggressively- the Jaguars blitzed on 42.2% of pass plays, the second-highest rate for the team this season. Kirk Cousins was pressured on 29.2% of dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate of the season for him. According to PFF, Cousins completed just five of 14 attempts under pressure (35.7%) and had four sacks, three throwaways, and an interception along with a pass rating of just 14.6.
Jacksonville’s defense played its best game of the season on Sunday in terms of yards per play allowed and second-best in terms of defensive DVOA. That performance is encouraging to say the least, considering that the Vikings' offense ranked second in yards per play and ninth in offensive DVOA going into the game. Dalvin Cook surpassed 100 rushing yards but needed 32 attempts to do so (3.8 yards per carry) as he faced a loaded box on 53% of his rushes versus the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has featured one-high safety looks for much of the season- it leads the league in Cover 1 and it still plays Cover 3 at a fairly high rate as well. This, as opposed to two-high safety looks, is done in order to crowd the line of scrimmage and put an emphasis on stopping the run.
That will be the defense’s mission again this week against the Titans and NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry. When these teams played in week 2, Henry rushed for just 84 yards on 25 attempts (3.4 yards per carry) as the Jaguars executed its gameplan against Henry well, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill passed for four touchdowns on only 26 dropbacks.
Look for Jacksonville to continue to use its 4-3 under front to try to contain Henry; also, pay attention to whether Wash blitzes on pass plays as much as he did last week (19 times) or if he’ll be more conservative like he was in the week 2 matchup (five blitzes); and watch for the impact of Giles-Harris and Chaisson on the edges.
