4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 4 Vs. the Bengals
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.
With the Jaguars (1-2) coming off a rough loss to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the game and the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 4 against the Cincinnati Bengals.
D.J. Chark
After ranking sixth in offensive Expected Points Added (EPA) per play through Week 2 (per RBSDM.com), the Jaguars ranked 27th in that metric in Week 3. In other words, Jacksonville was very good offensively until it faced Miami according to the #analytics.
There are plenty of reasons why the offense sputtered on Thursday Night Football -- one big reason is that it was playing from behind literally the entire game and was forced into negative game script play calling. But another major factor was undoubtedly the absence of Pro Bowl wide receiver D.J. Chark.
After a breakout sophomore campaign in 2019, Chark has had a relatively quiet start to the 2020 season. He recorded a total of seven catches, 109 receiving yards, and one touchdown through the first two games before sustaining a chest/back injury during Week 2 against the Titans.
Chark will be needed by Jacksonville this week, assuming he’s recovered from his injury. The Bengals rank top-8 in the league in targets, receptions, and yards allowed to wide receivers so far this season. Cincinnati’s top cornerback (William Jackson III) ranks sixth in Pro Football Focus coverage grade and the defense overall ranks 13th in EPA per play allowed.
CB D.J. Hayden
On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville must be prepared to stop Joe Burrow and the Bengal’s receiver-heavy offense. Cincinnati uses the most 11 personnel (79% per Sharp Football Stats) and has the eighth-highest neutral situation pass rate on early downs (57% per RBSDM.com) in the league this season.
That means D.J. Hayden should get plenty of playing time this week, who has lined up in the slot on 94% of his snaps so far this season (83% in 2019) per PFF. Hayden has been a solid run defender- he ranks first in PFF run defense grade among all corners with 50-plus snaps this season- but he has been a liability in against the pass, ranking third-to-last in PFF coverage grade among the same group. He also ranks bottom-12 in completion percentage, passer rating and yards per coverage snap allowed.
Performance in coverage tends to be pretty volatile -- Hayden could just be going through a slump, especially considering he ranked 13th in PFF coverage grade among all cornerbacks in 2019. It’ll be vital for Hayden to snap out of his funk this week against Cincinnati and slot receiver Tyler Boyd, who ranks 16th in PFF receiving grade so far this season.
DT DaVon Hamilton
This season was supposed to be the year of Taven Bryan, who has yet to breakout after being selected No. 29 overall by Jacksonville in the 2018 draft. Bryan showed flashes last season as one of the most explosive players on the Jaguars defense but has underwhelmed to start the 2020 season.
Bryan has arguably been less of an impact player than third-round rookie defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton. Hamilton has played 47 fewer snaps than Bryan so far this season, but has registered three more tackles and two fewer penalties through the team’s first three games (per PFF).
Hamilton will work primarily against Cincinnati Trey Hopkins, who ranks eighth in pass blocking grade but 24th in run blocking grade among starting centers this season. In last season’s matchup against the Bengals, running back Joe Mixon was held to just two rushing yards on 10 carries in a 27-17 Jacksonville win. Hamilton will need to continue his strong start to his career in order to keep Mixon and the rest of the Bengals offense contained this Sunday.
K Stephen Hauschka
A kicker makes the list for the second straight week! Josh Lambo was on the Week 3 watch list before he was placed on injured reserve with a groin injury that he sustained against the Titans in Week 2. Undrafted rookie Brandon Wright played in Lambo’s place last week but then injured his own groin after making one of his two extra point attempts.
Jacksonville added free agent kicker Stephen Hauschka this week to replace Wright until Lambo returns from injury. Hauschka made 73 of 89 field goals (82%) in Buffalo from 2017-2019 before connecting on 175 of 197 attempts in Seattle from 2011-2019.
As much as it’ll be interesting to see how Hauschka performs, it’ll be as interesting to see if the Jaguars change its decision-making without the availability of Lambo’s consistent leg (especially considering Hauschka appeared on Wednesday’s injury report with a sore knee). Jacksonville had the seventh-lowest neutral situation fourth down aggressiveness a year ago (per RBSDM.com) and have just one neutral situation fourth down attempt so far this season. Touchdowns are, in fact, good, and an increase in fourth down attempts would be a wise decision for Doug Marrone and co., especially considering that Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 30-plus points in back-to-back games.
