4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 5 Vs. the Texans
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville Jaguars players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.
With the Jaguars (1-3) coming off a third straight loss after Sunday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 4 against the Houston Texans.
RB James Robinson
Through the first quarter of the NFL season, undrafted rookie James Robinson ranks top-12 in rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns among all running backs. He’s also been very efficient, as he currently ranks fifth in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, ninth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and 10th in yards after contact per attempt.
Robinson is averaging 15 carries per game and has seen no less than 17 touches in each contest. But that workload could become even larger in the coming weeks- Jacksonville currently ranks dead last in time of possession while trailing (per Football Outsiders), as it has been down by multiple scores at times in each of the past three weeks. With better game scripts, Robinson could have a true bellcow running back role.
This week is a great opportunity to fully unleash Robinson. The Houston Texans rank dead last in rushing attempts and yards allowed to opposing teams this season (and second-to-last in rushing touchdowns allowed). The Texans have been hindered by a rough opening schedule- it opened the season against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings- so game script was a factor, but Houston’s rushing defense still ranks bottom-four in DVOA and adjusted line yards.
If Jacksonville is able to avoid another slow start, Robinson could have a career day against a porous Houston defense.
RT Jawaan Taylor
J.J. Watt is still cooking. The 31-year-old currently ranks fifth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate and 10th in run stop win rate. He’s only collected two sacks so far on the season, but that number should increase based on how often he’s beating blocks.
Watt primarily lines up on the left side of the line- 88% of his pass rush snap have come from the left side, per PFF- which means he’ll be primarily lined up against Jawaan Taylor. Taylor had a strong rookie campaign last season, but currently ranks 70th in pass blocking grade and 54th in run blocking grade among 79 qualifying offensive tackles this season. His 15 pressures allowed this season is the fifth-most among all players. Taylor is arguably the only weak link on Jacksonville’s offensive line, as he is the only starter who had an overall PFF grade lower than 63.0.
Father Time has yet to defeat Watt. Taylor is unlikely to stop him either, but if he at least slows him down and contains him enough for Gardner Minshew to stay comfortable in the pocket, that could have a huge impact on the game.
LB Joe Schobert
Myles Jack has objectively been Jacksonville’s best player to begin the season, as his transition to weakside linebacker has clearly paid off. His replacement at the middle linebacker position, Joe Schobert, has not fared as well though.
Among qualifying linebackers, Jack ranks first in PFF grade as well as top-10 in PFF’s coverage grade, run stop percentage, tackling efficiency and pass rushing productivity metrics. Schobert, meanwhile, ranks 41st, 43rd, 30th, 43rd and 28th in those respective categories. Jack has been elite but Schobert has been average at best.
Schobert’s five missed tackles are tied for 13th-most among all defenders this season (per PFF). He will need to step up if Jacksonville doesn’t want to rank last in most defensive metrics by the end of the season (the Jaguars currently have the worst defense in the league per DVOA), especially this week against a Deshaun Watson-led offense.
S Andrew Wingard
Andrew Wingard has quietly been a serviceable player for Jacksonville this season. He ranks eighth among qualifying safeties in PFF grade and top-three among Jaguars defenders in overall, rush defense, coverage and tackling grades.
The defense as a whole has been a liability, as it has allowed the fifth-most yards per play this season, but it has done a decent job of limiting explosive plays- Jacksonville ranks 19th in rate of both 15-plus yard rushes and passes allowed this season, per Sharp Football Stats. The Texans rank dead last in rank of explosive rushes but fifth in rate of explosive passes, as Watson has the sixth-highest depth of target in the league this season and has a disposal of athletic receivers to target.
Watson also ranks ninth in time to throw (per Next Gen Stats). The biggest (and maybe only) weakness of Watson’s game is his tendency to hold onto the ball for too long in the pocket in hope of a big play, which results in too many sacks- but considering that Jacksonville ranks second-to-last in sacks to far this season, Watson could have ample time to uncork some bombs. It’ll be up to Wingard and the rest of the secondary to prevent big plays from the Texans offense on Sunday.
