4 Takeaways From the Jaguars’ Rumored Interest to Trade Leonard Fournette
While the bulk of the trade rumors surrounding the Jacksonville Jaguars in recent weeks have been focused on disgruntled defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, a different type of trade storyline has arisen, with running back Leonard Fournette now the player in question.
According to a report from Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Jaguars have had trade discussions with other teams in regards to a potential trade for Fournette, the fourth-year veteran whom the Jaguars selected No. 4 overall in 2017.
Considering the Jaguars' fire sale of players this offseason, with A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, and Nick Foles all traded, Fournette's name entering trade talks is far from a surprise, even if he had an all-around solid season last year.
After a sophomore season that saw Fournette have massive issues on and off the field, he ended up posting career-highs in rushing yards (1152), yards per carry average (4.3), receptions (76), and receiving yards (522 yards) in 2019. The only area Fournette didn't take a big step forward in was touchdowns, scoring only three on the year.
So, if the Jaguars truly are looking to deal Fournette for draft capital, what does it say about their future direction? We take a look at what a potential deal could look like, what it means, and more takeaways.
For clarities sake, it must also be remembered that just because the Jaguars reportedly have talked about trading Fournette doesn't mean it will actually happen. There is a very real scenario in which the team doesn't trade him and he plays out the final year of his contract in 2020.
1) The Jaguars would likely get minimal compensation for Fournette
While Fournette is a solid player who can contribute as a runner, pass-catcher, and blocker on third downs, there is a good chance any return the Jaguars would get for him would be closer to the return they got for Calais Campbell as opposed to A.J. Bouye, Nick Foles, or Dante Fowler.
Fournette is entering the last year of his rookie contract, has missed 12 games in three seasons due to a number of injuries and off-field suspensions, and he has already recorded 800 touches in his three seasons. There is a lot of wear on those tires, and any team that trades for Fournette would likely be taking on a one- to two-year rental.
Because of these factors, the Jaguars would likely be able to fetch a fifth-round pick at best for the veteran running back. With that said, Fournette was a top player on a lot of team's draft boards in 2017, and those same teams could believe a change of scenery would do the former LSU star good, resulting in better compensation for Jacksonville. It would be surprising to see the Jaguars get a top-100 pick if they trade Fournette, but it was also surprising to see them get a fourth-round pick for Foles. Sometimes surprises just happen.
2) Trading Fournette would create a hole, but not one that can't be filled
While Fournette has plenty of holes to his game, he is still one of the better players on an otherwise weak Jaguars' roster. In the event the Jaguars trade him, they would have to replace 1,674 total yards from only a year ago, leaving a void in both the running and passing game. Fournette has been the centerpiece of the Jaguars' offense since he was drafted, so any situation in which he is traded would create a void in the team's offense.
With that said, Fournette has only averaged 4.0 yards per carry and 73.1 rushing yards per game in his career. In 36 career games, he has rushed for 100 yards in only eight of them. He is a good player, but his production is far from irreplaceable. In fact, the Jaguars could likely get similar production from a number of running backs in this year's draft class, or maybe even from Ryquell Armstead if the offensive line takes a jump. Fournette's absence would be a hole that would need to be filled, but it isn't a void the Jaguars wouldn't be able to work around.
3) A Fournette trade would be an exclamation point on one of the worst draft decisions in team history
While Fournette is a good player, trading him after three seasons would be quite the tip of the iceberg when it comes to judging how poor of a decision it was to select him with the No. 4 overall pick. Even if the Jaguars do get some kind of decent return in a Fournette trade, any value they get would pale in comparison to the value they lost when they selected him at No. 4.
While trading him would be a prudent move in the long-term, it only reinforces how much of a misguided judgment it was for the team's front office, then led by Tom Coughlin, to select Fournette over better prospects such as Christian McCaffrey, Jamal Adams, or Deshaun Watson. Adams and McCaffrey would have bene questionable value just like Fournette was, but they have at least been more productive players. And Watson, who the Jaguars should have drafted in 2017, is a top-10 quarterback with playoff experience. This isn't even factoring in the fact that the Jaguars also passed on Patrick Mahomes in favor of Fournette.
Trading Fournette is a reasonable move, and any return the Jaguars get will likely be a long-term win for general manager Dave Caldwell. But at the end of the day, dealing him before his rookie contract is up is yet another reminder about the failure of the team's 2017 first-round decision.
4) Any Fournette trade would likely be about the future, not his Cam Newton comments
While the timing is admittingly interesting considering Fournette's recent public campaigning for the Jaguars to sign free agent quarterback Cam Newton, it shouldn't be a theory that the Jaguars are only willing to deal Fournette because of his comments. It wouldn't make much sense for the Jaguars' desire to move Fournette for draft capital to have suddenly become a reality because he is hoping the team signs a quarterback to compete with Gardner Minshew II.
Instead, the Jaguars likely already know they have no desire to give Fournette a long-term deal once his rookie contract is up after this year. Because of this, it makes sense for them to want to attempt to recoup some of the massive investment they poured into him several seasons ago. Fournette could have said he believes Minshew is the next Tom Brady and the Jaguars would likely still field calls for a trade involving him. While the timing is of course worth pointing out, it needs to be considered that the Jaguars were always planning on making Fournette available.
