5 Free Agency Predictions for the Jaguars Before the Cycle Begins
With the 2020 free agency cycle set to begin on Mar. 18, the Jacksonville Jaguars still have to sort out a few key decisions that will have monumental ramifications for next season and beyond.
From the free agency status of star pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue to some pressing contract decisions on aging veterans who are set to take up a lot of cap space next year, there is zero shortage of storylines to follow from a Jaguars' perspective this year. The question instead is how these storylines will playout.
We give it a shot to predict how some of the Jaguars' most pivotal free agency situations will unfold, using the team's past track record and logic to map out how general manager Dave Caldwell and head coach Doug Marrone may be thinking.
Here are our five free agency predictions for the Jaguars before the Mar. 18 cycle begins:
1) The Jaguars place the franchise tag on Yannick Ngakoue
Ngakoue has been seeking a new contract since last summer, and he has never been quiet about his intentions to sign a big-money deal. The Jaguars engaged in talks with Ngakoue in 2019, but the Tom Coughlin-led front office did little to move talks along. Now, the Jaguars are faced with the prospect of losing one of their best draft picks over the last plus-decade.
Caldwell has already let it be known this offseason that the team wants to have Ngakoue back in 2020, but it isn't as simple as a want. The two sides need to come to some kind of long-term understanding on the parameters of a deal that will likely be one of the largest of all defensive ends in the NFL. After nearly a year of the camps being unable to do so, however, is there any potential for them to finally find some common ground?
Jacksonville still has a few weeks to sort this out, but we are going to predict that they aren't able to reach any long-term agreement with Ngakoue. However, it is hard to foresee that Caldwell and Marrone, who are each in a must-win situation, would be comfortable with letting Ngakoue walk for nothing. Instead, we think the team franchise tag's Ngakoue, preventing him from signing with another team. We wrote yesterday how this could financially impact the team's cap, leaving them with little wriggle room in the rest of free agency.
Ngakoue wants a long-term deal, and a long-term deal is what would be the best-case scenario for the Jaguars as a whole. But instead, we think the team goes with their second-best option, and perhaps Ngakoue's least preferred.
2) Marcell Dareus' contract is restructured, bringing him back in 2020
Marcell Dareus is going to be one of the biggest dominoes to fall for the Jaguars this offseason. He carries the largest cap hit on the roster with $22.5 million, and this isn't tenable for a team that is already projected to have a negative amount of cap space in 2020. As it stands today, it is nearly impossible to see Dareus return to the Jaguars on his current contract.
But what about a restructured deal? This would be ideal enough for both the Jaguars and Dareus that it makes perfect sense, and is well within reason to actually happen.
Dareus, 30, is a veteran who has been sidelined by injuries in recent years and doesn't have great sack production, so it is unlikely he has an active free agency market. Teams would undoubtedly be interested, but it is hard to see him getting a sizeable deal anywhere.
As for the Jaguars, their run defense fell off a cliff without Dareus in the lineup in 2019. They don't really have anything worth noting at defensive tackle behind him, so letting him walk would obviously create a void in the middle of the defense. It makes sense for each side to work out a reunion in 2020.
3) A.J. Bouye is released for cap reasons
A.J. Bouye was an elite cornerback in 2017, intercepting six passes and earning a Pro Bowl nod. The last two years haven't one nearly as well, but he is clearly still capable of providing solid play on the boundary.
But is his current production (two interceptions in last two years) worth the roughly $15 million cap hit he has next season? It is hard to make an argument that it is, even if he is still one of the better players on the defense.
Instead, the Jaguars can clear a lot of cap space (over $11 million) by releasing the veteran cornerback. This would give the Jaguars enough flexibility to bring Ngakoue back as well as be active in other facets of free agency.
Releasing Bouye would create a hole on the roster that would require serious attention, but it is the most logical move the team can make. Bouye should have an active market in the event that he is released.
4) Nick Foles remains on the roster, with Jacksonville finding no trade partners
While some teams make blockbuster trades during the free agency cycle, we don't think the Jaguars are going to be moving Nick Foles this March.
Gardner Minshew II is the likely starter in 2020, while Foles will have the largest cap hit on the team whenever Dareus' current deal is voided. Trading Foles to another team to help unload his contract would be a best-case scenario for Jacksonville, but it is hard to envision anything coming to fruition.
A number of teams, such as the Chargers, Bears, and Colts, could be in the market for a veteran quarterback this offseason, but this is shaping up to be the strongest free agency quarterback class in years. Foles pales in comparison to most of these quarterbacks, so it is hard to forsee a team preferring to take on Foles rather than someone like Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater, or Jameis Winston.
Instead, we think Foles remains on the roster through March and likely through the rest of the offseason.
5) Jacksonville gives TE Eric Ebron a two-year contract worth $11 million
In the event the Jaguars resign or tag Ngakoue, they won't have much room to test the rest of the free agency market. One player we do think they will sign, however, is veteran tight end Eric Ebron, who just wrapped up two seasons with the Colts.
Jaguars' head coach Doug Marrone knows just how dangerous Ebron can be as a receiver due to battles against him in the last two seasons, and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden needs an athletic pass-catcher who can create mismatches at the second level.
Ebron won't command a large contract due to injuries and a down year in 2019, but he makes sense on a reasonable contract for a team like the Jaguars, who got zero production from the tight end position for the vast majority of last season.
With the current youth of the Jaguars' tight end position, it seems more likely that they will invest in a veteran rather than draft another rookie in hopes of him developing on the fly. Instead, we see the Jaguars opting to sign Ebron to a short-term deal and have him enter the season as the starting tight end.
