What's Next? 5 Observations on the Jaguars’ Decision to Fire Dave Caldwell
The Jacksonville Jaguars set a franchise record for losing streaks in a single season on Sunday, but the 27-25 loss to the Cleveland Browns quickly fell by the wayside as the Jaguars announced shortly afterward that general manager Dave Caldwell had been fired.
Caldwell spent nearly eight seasons as Jacksonville's general manager, serving as the top voice in the front office for all but three of those seasons. With him gone, the Jaguars now have a void at the general manager position that they haven't had to fill since 2013.
"I’ve met with Dave Caldwell to express my appreciation for his service to the Jacksonville Jaguars as our general manager. Dave was exceptionally committed and determined to bring a winner to Jacksonville, but unfortunately his efforts were not rewarded with the results our fans deserve and our organization expects," Jaguars owner Shad Khan said in a statement on Sunday.
"Our football operation needs new leadership, and we will have it with a new general manager in 2021. "
But with the move to fire Caldwell comes a few questions, a few reflections on Jaguars past, and much more.
So with that said, here are our five instant observations on Caldwell's firing.
Dave Caldwell was a good scout. Bad teambuilding is what did him in
Scouting and teambuilding are two very, very different things. They are the two things that most executives struggle to find balance with, and the two things most fans struggle to separate. There are few examples of this conundrum that define it as well as Caldwell has over the last eight years, however, and that is largely what cost him his job in Jacksonville.
When it came to finding diamonds in the rough, few in the NFL were better than Caldwell. Mid- to late-round picks like Brandon Linder, Telvin Smith, DaVon Hamilton, Daniel Thomas, and Yannick Ngakoue were all great picks by Caldwell that weren't exactly obvious picks. Then you factor in his undrafted free agent success with James Robinson, Allen Hurns, Jarrod Wilson and others, and Caldwell's resume after the first few rounds was terrific.
With that said, those picks and decisions don't matter nearly as much as what Caldwell did with his most important decisions. Only one of his four first-round picks pre-Tom Coughlin wasn't a bust -- Jalen Ramsey. Luke Joeckel, Blake Bortles, and Dante Fowler were all bad picks that set the team back. Then you factor in diasters in the second-round and more than his fair share of free agency whiffs, and it is clear why the Jaguars have been so bad under Caldwell.
Caldwell did a great job of finding talent in hidden places. But the moves that mattered the most often blew up in his and the team's face, leading to seven losing seasons and his firing.
Jacksonville is a very attractive job moving forward
While Caldwell had his hand in turning the Jaguars into the unmitigated disaster they are in 2020, he did do a good job of leaving the organization better than he found it. When he arrived in 2013, the Jaguars had little hope for the future. The roster was bad, the cap wasn't in great shape, and free agents had little reason to sign.
Now, the Jaguars are among the most appealing of all front office jobs that are either available or likely to become available in part because of Caldwell. He made a series of trades in 2020 that made the Jaguars a worse team this fall, trading Nick Foles, A.J. Bouye, Yannick Ngakoue, and Calais Campbell. But many of those moves were needed to fix a cap situation that had grown out of control. As a result of those moves, and in part due to the Jaguars being unable to ever kept their own talent, the Jaguars will enter next season with over $100 million in cap space and 11 draft picks.
Caldwell also did his part to fix Jacksonville's reputation following the overbearing and drama-filled tenure of Tom Coughlin. Coughlin rubbed many players the wrong way in Jacksonville and, as a result, created a perception that the Jaguars were not an ideal situation to play for. Caldwell helped ease those concerns by mending fences, bringing in good veteran leadership, and leaving the Coughlin era in the past. The Jaguars are set up better today than they would have been had Caldwell been fired last December.
What we think this means for Doug Marrone and his staff
While we know many are going to presume this means Doug Marrone has a chance to remain as head coach, I see this as the opposite. Marrone was told by owner Shad Khan today that he would remain in his role through the end of the season. So, why fire the general manager but not the head coach? For a few reasons.
One, you don't want to make things any more difficult the rest of the season. Say the Jaguars fired Marrone. If Jay Gruden came in as head coach in the interim and provided a spark, the Jaguars would not only lose draft position but may feel pressured to keep him as the head coach moving forward.
Secondly, this is Khan's method of building his organization's leadership. The leader of the front office comes first and then decides the fate of the others. He did the same after the 2012 season when he fired general manager Gene Smith but kept head coach Mike Mularkey in his role for nearly two weeks. Mularkey was fired after Caldwell was hired as general manager, with Caldwell serving as a major voice in the move to fire Mularkey.
We think the latter is what will happen here. We expect for a new general manager to come in and ponder Marrone's future, but for the result to be the same for Marrone as it was for Mularkey.
Shad Khan kept his word about needing to win in 2020 but still took too long to make a move
Shad Khan is a man of his word. The Jaguars owner said after the 2019 season that the Jaguars needed to dramatically improve on the field or else they would face major changes. And Khan kept that promise on Sunday by firing Caldwell, effectively saying enough was enough after seven seasons of double-digit losses. This came despite many in the fan base worrying that Khan would, once again, keep Caldwell due to close losses and a barrage of injuries his team had to face.
But Khan shouldn't get credit for making this move. Sure he kept his word, but why didn't he make this move after 2016 when Bortles was certified as a bust, Gus Bradley got fired, and Caldwell's hand-picked squad limped to a last-place finish? Why didn't he make it after 2018 when the Bortles' experiment failed again? Why didn't he make it after 2019 when the Jaguars missed on their second quarterback in a row?
There were lots of reasons for Khan to fire Caldwell. Most of those reasons were as true in the previous years as they are today. He kept his word, but he likely would have saved the Jaguars from some losses had he acted sooner.
Caldwell's legacy is much like the Jaguars during his tenure. Flashes of brilliance, but too much losing
Caldwell didn't do everything bad during his tenure as general manager. He was great after the second round and did a good job of construction contracts to ensure the Jaguars wouldn't be on the hook for contracts over the long-term. He also was one of the best general managers in the league in terms of trading undesirable assets.
Much like the Jaguars from 2013-2020, Caldwell had his moments of brilliance, Moments that suggested he was nearing what the Jaguars always hoped and envisioned he'd become. Moments that said maybe the Jaguars figured it out.
But these were just moments. As a whole, Caldwell had a 39-87 record in Jacksonville. Much like the teams he constructed, there were individual performances worth praising but the final picture was ugly and filled with loss after loss. Caldwell embodied the teams he put on the field, for better and for worse.
