Who Have Been the Jaguars' Best Draft Picks During the Trent Baalke Era?

With three drafts under his belt, who have been the biggest hits of the Trent Baalke era?

The NFL Draft is an imperfect science. Even the teams who draft the best classes on a consistent basis will have their big misses, and even the worst teams will have home runs. It is an unpredictable beast and puzzle year in and year out.

"Yeah, you're going to be wrong at times. You do everything you can to be right, Trent's [General Manager Trent Baalke] already talked about it. But are you going to make a mistake? Yeah, you're going to make a mistake, it happens," Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said this week.

"But the key is not to make too many mistakes, that's why there is so much time spent in this process and there's so much dialogue, so much film and on the road, and just the process itself and all 32 clubs are going through the same thing. But, will you miss on a player from time-to-time? You will. Like I said, it's just a matter of minimizing those opportunities and maximizing the ones you have, and developing those guys so they can help you come November, December, January and ultimately into February.”

But once those players hit the field for their first practice, their successes or failures are pinned on the front office and organization of every team.

So without further ado, here are the five best picks of the Trent Baalke era, using an average 'Weighted Approximate Value' for each player selected over the last three years.

1) QB Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 pick in 2021): 11.33 WAV per year (34 overall)

This one is fairly obvious. Just based on pure talent alone, the three best Jaguars drafted since 2010 are Jalen Ramsey, Josh Allen, and Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is the only one of the three to be brought in during a Trent Baalke draft. It is hard to lavish Baalke and the Jaguars with too much credit because Lawrence at No. 1 overall was as unanimous as Andrew Luck at No. 1 to the Colts a decade earlier.

Through three seasons, Lawrence has completed 63.8% of his passes for 11,770 yards and 58 touchdowns with 39 interceptions. Lawrence had a breakout season down the stretch of the 2022 season and was seen as a potential MVP candidate for 2023 before injuries and a 1-4 starting record over the final six weeks derailed the season. Lawrence will undoubtedly be extended by the Jaguars and will almost surely receive the largest contract in franchise history and one of the largest in the league.

2) OT Anton Harrison (No. 27 in 2023): 9 WAV per year (9 overall)

This one is hard to argue against. Even if Anton Harrison has just one year under his belt, there is an easy argument to make that he is Baalke's best pure evaluation. Anyone would have picked Lawrence, but Baalke had the instincts to trade back twice before landing a top offensive tackle prospect in Harrison. A year later, and Harrison is one of the true building blocks of the roster.

Harrison had the lowest pressure rate of any rookie offensive tackle in 2023 after playing the most pass-protection snaps of any rookie tackle in football in the last two seasons. Of all offensive tackles over the last two seasons with at least 700 pass-protection snaps, Harrison's 27 pressures are the second-fewest behind Brian O'Neil in 2022.

3) LB Devin Lloyd (No. 27 in 2022): 7.5 WAV per year (15 overall)

Okay, honesty time: if going by pure average WAV, center Luke Fortner would be No. 3. He has a career WAV of 16, meaning he averages 8 per season. But I am making the judgement call not to list Fortner as Baalke's third best pick because, frankly, there is no argument outside of WAV to make for it. Fortner will likely be a backup in 2024 behind Mitch Morse for a reason.

With that said, WAV then points toward linebacker Devin Lloyd. Baalke made the most aggressive draft trade of his Jaguars career to select Lloyd, trading away the No. 33, No. 106, and No. 180 picks to move up to No. 27 for the Utah linebacker. Lloyd has started 30 of 34 possible games since and has flashed playmaking ability, recording 242 tackles, two tackles for loss, 15 pass deflections, four fumble recoveries, and three interceptions.

4) Travon Walker (No. 1 in 2022): 7 WAV per year (14 overall)

A player who could easily be higher on this list next year, Travon Walker has been an interesting case study. He recorded 10 sacks and 10 tackles for loss last year and showed genuine strides as a pass-rusher. His pressure rate, though, has been low for back-to-back years and most would say Aidan Hutchinson has had a better start to his career.

There are a few different things to take into account, though. For one, Walker has produced like few other Baalke picks thanks his 10-sack season alone. Even without a great win-rate number, he still showed progress on film in terms of pass-rush technique and finishing ability in 2023 compared to his rookie season. Add in some genuinely elite reps against the run and a move to a scheme that seems to better suit his abilities and the arrow is pointing up for Walker.

5) RB Travis Etienne (No. 25 in 2021): 6.66 WAV per year (20 overall)

Despite missing his entire rookie year, Travis Etienne still lands on this list thanks to an incredible productive two-year stretch. While the Jaguars' running game struggled in 2023, Etienne is still No. 5 in rushing yards and No. 8 in rushing touchdowns since 2022. There are reasons to think he can be even more efficient in 2024, too, as the Jaguars look to put a tough 2023 behind them.

It remains to be seen how long the Jaguars will tie themselves to Etienne's contract, but for now he is one of the top players Baalke has drafted by a good measure. He is entering a contract year and the Jaguars have a decision to make on his fifth-year option in the next month or so, which will indicate which way the Jaguars are leaning long-term.