Is Doug Pederson the Most Secure Head Coach in the AFC South Entering 2022?
The AFC South is in a unique spot entering 2022.
For half the teams in the four-team division, former NFL head coaches have been given new life and hired to lead teams in the AFC South. For the other half, teams are led by the same successful coaches who have been in place for years, yet are still potentially looking for more to get them over the hump.
The AFC South looks slightly different from last year. Frank Reich still leads the Indianapolis Colts and Mike Vrabel still commands the Tennessee Titans. Urban Meyer and David Culley were fired by the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans respectively, though, leading to them being replaced by experienced head coaches in Doug Pederson and Lovie Smith.
But among these four coaches, does Pederson actually have the most secure job status moving into the fall? There is a chance he does, and oddsmakers seem to agree.
According to BetOnline, Pederson has the lowest odds among all AFC South head coaches to be the next head coach fired or set to resign. Pederson has 66/1 odds, which ties him for the third-longest odds, and gives him better odds than Reich, Vrabel and Smith.
It makes sense for Pederson to have longer odds than his AFC South counterparts for several reasons. For one, Pederson is in his first year with the Jaguars and is following the horrible Urban Meyer era. He is going to be given a grace period of sorts just simply because of how toxic the Jaguars were off the field and how derailed they were on the field.
Meyer was one of the few exceptions, but most head coaches last longer than a year. Among the other first-year coaches, Pederson has the same odds as New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll, New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen, Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell, Denver Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. The only first-year coach with longer odds is Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniel (100/1).
In terms of the AFC South itself, there are a few reasons to think Pederson is on less shaky ground than any of his three divisional rivals. Reich is 37-28 in the regular season (1-2 in the playoffs) with the Colts but has seen the Colts win fewer than 10 games in two of the last three seasons, including a late-season collapse last year when the Colts finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs.
The Colts' failure to reach the playoffs was largely the result of a Week 18 loss to the Jaguars. Since then, the Colts have operated like a team that has been haunted by the loss to Jacksonville. If Reich can't get the Colts over the hump soon, then could he sooner be on his way out?
The same could be argued for Vrabel. He is 41-24 with the Titans (2-3 in the playoffs) and has never finished worse than 9-7, but two double-digit win seasons in a row have led to zero Super Bowl appearances. Can the Titans fix that in Vrabel's fifth year?
Finally, there is Smith. Houston just fired a head coach after one season a year ago and they have been one of the NFL's most drama-filled franchises in recent years. If the Texans finish near the bottom of the NFL's standings again in 2022, they could look to move on from Smith.
In short, no head coach in the AFC South is facing less pressure this year than Pederson. Less pressure, of course, means more job security.
- Matt Rhule: 3/1
- Mike McCarthy: 5/1
- Pete Carroll: 6/1
- Frank Reich: 7/1
- Ron Rivera: 8/1
- Dan Campbell: 10/1
- Kevin Stefanski: 10/1
- Kliff Kingsbury: 12/1
- Mike Vrabel: 12/1
- Arthur Smith: 14/1
- Robert Saleh: 14/1
- John Harbaugh: 16/1
- Mike Tomlin: 16/1
- Nick Sirianni: 25/1
- Kyle Shanahan: 33/1
- Bill Belichick: 50/1
- Lovie Smith: 50/1
- Todd Bowles: 50/1
- Brandon Staley: 66/1
- Brian Daboll: 66/1
- Dennis Allen: 66/1
- Doug Pederson: 66/1
- Kevin O'Connell: 66/1
- Matt Eberflus: 66/1
- Mike McDaniel: 66/1
- Nathaniel Hackett: 66/1
- Zac Taylor: 66/1
- Matt Lafleur: 80/1
- Andy Reid: 100/1
- Josh McDaniels: 100/1
- Sean McDermott: 100/1
- Sean McVay: 100/1
