How Has Trevor Lawrence Stacked Up to the Other Rookie Quarterbacks in 2021?
Over the past few seasons, rookie quarterbacks in the NFL have held their own in their initial season. The likes of Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray have set a high standard for this year’s group.
Trevor Lawrence had the highest expectations heading into the 2021 season and has showcased some great -- and some not-so-great. The last three weeks have been a lot better for the former Clemson legend, but overall how has he compared to the rest of the 2021 rookie QB class?
Well, only the likes of Zach Wilson and Mac Jones have played and started in all of their team's games outside of Lawrence. Justin Fields has appeared in all of Chicago’s games but did not earn the starting job until October 6th. Finally, Trey Lance, the third overall pick by the 49ers, has sparingly played in four games up to this point.
Passing yards
For a proper comparison, we will be breaking things down into categories. We start with the simplest stat of them all; passing yards. In six games Lawrence has thrown for 1,456 yards (244.2 yards/game). His average yards per attempt is nearly seven and he has thrown for more than 300 yards twice up to this point.
Only Jones has thrown for more yards (1,779), but he has also played one more game than Lawrence and has 31 more attempts. His average is 254 yards/game for the Patriots, but he has only gone over 300 yards once. His average yards per attempt is just over seven as well.
Wilson on the other hand has not gone downfield nearly as much. He has only thrown for 1,168 yards (6.5 avg./attempt) and only throws for 194.7 yards a game up to this point through six games. Wilson has yet to go over 300 yards up to this point, but did come close vs. the Titans with 297 in the win over Tennessee.
Fields, while appearing in all seven games, only has 131 attempts on the season and hasn’t even eclipsed 1,000 yards yet. His 816 through seven games is good for only 116.7 yards a game. However, since becoming the official starter before they played the Raiders in week five Fields is averaging 156.3 yards a game. Still not great, but it is better.
Since Lance has only appeared in four games his numbers wouldn’t make much sense to compare in his category. Overall Lawrence stacks up well compared to the rest of the rookie quarterbacks outside of Jones when it comes to yards, but that’s not everything. In fact, it isn’t even a top three statistic when comparing quarterbacks. Let's take a look at some more important ones.
Completion Percentage
This is a category Lawrence does not favor well in. He has only completed 59.72 percent of his passes up to this point. And in today’s NFL that is well below average. However, most of the other rookie quarterbacks are dealing with the same issue.
Of course, Jones has been the only exception. He comes in at an outstanding 70.45% completion rate in Josh McDaniel’s offense. The rest of the rookie quarterbacks are all right around where Lawrence is. Wilson comes in at 57.46%, Fields at 57.25% and Lance at 52.08%.
So, when it’s all stacked up Lawrence is in second place among rookie completion percentages. Right around 60% is not going to cut it though even as a rookie. Fortunately, Lawrence has vastly improved his completion percentage as the season has progressed.
He completed 65% vs. the Cardinals, 71% vs. the Bengals, 70% vs. the Titans and 61% vs. the Dolphins. If you average those percentages over this four-game stretch Lawrence is completing 67% of his passes. That’s right on par for where the first overall pick should be.
His first two outings against the Texans and Broncos produced are dragging that percentage down. He went 28-51 (55%) vs. Houston and 14-33 (42%) vs. Denver.
TD/INT Ratio
Touchdown to interception ratio is one of the most vital stats when it comes to quarterbacks in general, but especially young quarterbacks. Mistakes and growing pains are to be expected though. This category is all about how you learn from them and grow to not make as many mistakes as your experience increases.
Currently, Lawrence sits at seven touchdowns and eight interceptions. Obviously, that’s a recipe for failure up to this point. But this is where numbers can be twisted a bit. Over the last three weeks Lawrence has thrown just two touchdowns, but only one interception. That’s a green number.
And it is a vast improvement from what his ratio was through the first three weeks, throwing just five touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Once again Jones comes in with a better ratio than Lawrence with nine touchdowns to just six interceptions overall. And if not for just one game against the Saints his numbers would be eight touchdowns to just three interceptions on the season.
Those aren’t incredible numbers, but they are good for a rookie quarterback. It’s amazing what playing for Bill Belichick and the sound organization of the Patriots will do for you.
Outside of New England though Wilson comes in with four touchdowns to nine total interceptions for the Jets with one four-interception to zero-touchdown performance in week two vs. the Patriots under his belt.
Fields checks in with just two touchdowns to six interceptions on the season while Lance in a supplemental role has tossed three touchdowns and just one interception up to this point.
Passer Rating
Passer rating and QBR encompass a bit of everything a quarterback does. They aren’t the end-all be-all in terms of judging quarterbacks, but they do a good job of compiling a lot of metrics into one number.
Through six games Lawrence clocks in with a 75.5 passer rating. That’s not bad but not great either. Once again though it’s a tale of two three-game stretches for number 16. In the first three weeks Lawrence averaged just a 58.5 rating. The last three weeks though against the Bengals, Titans and Dolphins Lawrence is averaging a passer rating of 94, and that’s one heck of an improvement.
On the season Jones checks in with a 92.8 rating and has surpassed 100 three times already. His numbers are very flattering. His lowest rating was 55.2 against the Saints, but outside of that three-interception performance, he hasn’t dipped below an 89 rating on the season.
Wilson is in the opposite position. His rating on the season is 63.5 and has a low rating of 37 vs. the Saints in week two. However, he does have a couple of solid ratings with an 82.9 in week one against the Panthers and a 97.3 vs. Tennessee. Unfortunately, his play continues to go up and down, as does his rating.
Fields comes in with a 61.8 passer rating on the season with a high of 91.9 in Las Vegas against the Raiders and a low of 27.7 in week two coming in for an injured Andy Dalton against the Bengals. And Lance up to this point has an 88.4 rating even though he’s only attempted 48 total passes on the season.
He’s only attempted more than five passes in just two games with a high passer rating of 117.1 coming against the Seahawks in week four.
Running the ball
No, adding rushing stats was not just so somebody other than Mac Jones would be the best statistical performer. In all seriousness quarterbacks running the ball is a big part of today’s NFL. Heck, it’s even important for Tom Brady down in Tampa to tote the rock on occasion to pick up a first down.
And through six games Lawrence has showcased his athletic ability in the ground game rushing 26 times for 121 yards (4.7 avg.) and two touchdowns with a long of 12 yards. He has also picked up eight first downs on the ground for the Jaguars, which is good for 30.7% of his carries.
Jones is not a runner and doesn’t pretend to be, but he has carried the ball 13 times this season for 45 yards (3.5 avg.) but no touchdowns and a long of 13. He has picked up seven first downs on the season though, which is 53.9% of time. For a non-runner he can be effective at times.
Wilson is pretty athletic, but has not done much on the ground whatsoever. He has tallied eight carries for 22 yards (2.8 avg.) with no touchdowns with a long of ten and only picking up two first downs.
Fields and Lance were known to be dangerous on the ground coming out of college and they both have shown that to be true. Fields has carried the ball 34 times for 140 yards (4.1 avg.) and one touchdown so far. He has a long of 16 and has picked up eight first downs (23.5%) with his legs.
Lance in just four games has ran it 27 times for 133 yards (4.9 avg.) and one touchdown. He has a long of 15 yards and has picked up six first downs (22.2%) for the 49ers on the ground.
Toting the rock is not the first, second or third most important aspect to a quarterbacks game, but being mobile is crucial. If you can utilize your legs to extend plays and pick up crucial first downs for your team you add a massive wrinkle to your offense. And it’s one that keeps defensive coordinators up at night.
All five of these rookies have showcased some good, some great at times, and some head-scratching performances through the first half of their first season. And Lawrence, while his numbers through the first three weeks look bleak, has shown out over the last three weeks and is only continuing to hone in on how to succeed in the NFL.
