If the Jaguars Didn’t Pass On Patrick Mahomes in 2017, Could He Have Taken Them to Where He’s Taken the Chiefs?
Each and every NFL Draft changes the course of NFL history, but some are even more consequential than others. The 2017 draft was no different, and the selection of Patrick Mahomes by the Kanas City Chiefs has already created more ripples throughout the league than most picks.
Kansas City traded up to the 10th overall slot to select the young and toolsy passer out of Texas Tech, surprising many due to the prescence of veteran quarterback Alex Smith. The Chiefs, led by head coach Andy Reid, made a bold decision to bet on the future instead of being content with solid but unspectacular quarterback play.
What has happened since then is history, and there are still many more years of it to come. Mahomes sat behind Smith in his rookie season but proceeded to set the NFL ablaze in his first year as a starter in 2018. As a 23-year old, he won the Most Valuable Player award and led the Chiefs to a 12-4 record and an AFC Championship Game appearance. He completed 66% of his passes and threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. He was unstoppable.
This year, Mahomes has the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV and is slated to lead the Chiefs into battle vs. the San Francisco 49ers in hopes of winning a Super Bowl in just his second year as a starter.
To say drafting Mahomes has completely changed the Chiefs' trajectory would be an understatement. A team that couldn't find a way to win in January before has gone 24-7 with him as a starter and would be in their second consecutive Super Bowl if not for a Dee Ford penalty in 2018.
Mahomes' success and how far he has brought the Chiefs thus far begs the question of what would have happened to Mahomes if one of the nine teams who picked before Kansas City opted to take him before Reid and company could.
Amongst those teams who fatefully passed on the record-breaking passer? The Jacksonville Jaguars.
We have written before about how it isn't a hindsight opinion to say Jacksonville was primed to take a quarterback in the first round in 2017 and that they should have. But would the Jaguars passing on Leonard Fournette at fourth overall for Patrick Mahomes have changed mich for the Jaguars?
Well, for starters, the 2017 season would have been dramatically different. Fournette played a huge role in shaping Jacksonville's 10-6 regular-season and trip to the AFC Championship that year, in large part because the Jaguars focused on building around their defense and running game instead of a passing offense.
While Mahomes is the most talented passer the NFL has seen since peak Aaron Rodgers, there is no question that sitting behind Smith for a year was good for his development. Would he have been able to step into Jacksonville in 2017 and win right away? There is no way to know if the Jaguars would have been any better, or even as good, in 2017 if they took Mahomes and started him as a rookie.
Jacksonville also wouldn't have an offensive mind like Reid or weapons such as Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill, all factors in Mahomes' ascent to the top. To say the Jaguars would be a significantly worse landing spot in terms of fit, supporting cast, and coaching would be an obvious point.
But Mahomes has shown through the past two years that he has the ability to be one of the greats to play the position. He is a transcendent talent who has lifted the Chiefs past the threshold they previously couldn't come close to.
Maybe Jacksonville's 2017 would have played out differently with Mahomes, but so would the following years. Mahomes would have prevented the Jaguars from handing out misguided contracts to Blake Bortles and Nick Foles, giving the Jaguars more cap flexibility for players like Yannick Ngakoue. His talent would have ensured the Jaguars' Super Bowl window would have lasted longer than the single-season that it did.
Would Mahomes have taken the Jaguars near and to the top of the NFL in his first three years as he has done with the Chiefs? It is impossible to know. But he certainly would have made the 2018 and 2019 Jaguars teams better versions than what they became, even if he wouldn't have had the astronomical rise that he has had in Kansas City.
Not many people blamed the Jaguars for passing on Mahomes when it happened. Maybe they should have, though, because chances are he could have elevated the franchise to similar heights as the Chiefs eventually.
