Jaguars 2020 Odds & Betting Preview: Who Will Set High Marks?
The NFL season is quickly approaching, which means NFL betting is quickly approaching as well. Below are several Jacksonville Jaguars-related futures bets, along with my takes/predictions for each one.
Jacksonville 4.5 Wins (Over -105, Under -125 at BetOnline)
One of the most important factors when betting on team win totals is regression from the previous year. For example, the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers each won 13 games last season. But Green Bay’s projected win total is 9.0 while San Francisco’s is 10.5, because the Packers were a fairly lucky team last year. It went 8-1 in one-score games, had a +12 turnover margin and scored a touchdown on 68% of red zone trips- all statistics that tend to regress to the mean.
Fortunately, I already covered Jacksonville’s potential areas of regression in 2020. In short, Jacksonville was slightly unlucky but ranked pretty close to the middle-of-the-pack in most regression areas. The 2019 Jaguars finished with 6 actual wins, 6.6 Estimated Wins (based on Football Outsiders metrics) and 5.3 Pythagorean Wins (based on total point differential). So, Jacksonville won about as many games as expected.
The 2020 Jaguars have the lowest projected win total in the league after parting ways with veterans Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye, Yannick Ngakoue, Leonard Fournette and Nick Foles this offseason. The team did add talent, but most came via 12 draft picks in April, and the team’s only splash signing was inside linebacker Joe Schobert.
It makes sense that national media and public perception expects Jacksonville to tank for Trevor Lawrence, considering its offseason moves and talent-depleted roster. But it would be a surprise if anybody on the team side of the organization was actually trying to lose. Doug Marrone and Todd Walsh are fighting to keep their jobs amid tired local criticism; newly hired Jay Gruden and Ben McAdoo are fighting to regain head coaching opportunities; and most importantly, Gardner Minshew is fighting to prove himself as a franchise quarterback.
I’m not yet sold that Minshew has what it takes to be a long-term starting quarterback in the NFL. But quarterbacks do tend to take second-year leaps in efficiency, and hopefully the presence of Gruden will help as well. And it’s not a question that Minshew will be playing as hard as he did last season to squeeze out a couple of wins for the team. Much of the rest of the roster, which is one of the youngest in the league, will likewise be playing for more snaps, job security, second contracts, etc.
Even if this motivation angle is inaccurate, it’s still difficult for a team to successfully tank in the NFL. Take the 2019 Dolphins, which began the season 0-7 but finished 5-11 including wins over the Patriots and Eagles.
If Jacksonville had a brutal schedule, it would be much easier to peg them to win fewer games, but the Jaguars are set up nicely this season. Per Sharp Football Stats, the team faces the easiest schedule in the NFL in terms of projected win totals in the span of its first eight games (Week 1-9), including back-to-back matchups against the Dolphins and Bengals in Weeks 3 and 4. Minshew played a soft schedule of opposing pass defenses in his starts last season, but will face the fourth-easiest such schedule in 2020.
The Jaguars do have one of the least talented rosters in the league along with an uninspiring coaching staff. But the NFL tends to be random considering the small sample size of just 16 regular season games, which makes betting closer to eight wins a generally smart play, especially this season with so many potential questions concerning the coronavirus. I like Jacksonville’s odds to scrape together a few unexpected wins behind an improved Minshew and finish with more than five wins.
I would take the over at 4.5 or 5.0 wins. I’d recommend splitting a unit on -105 Over 4.5 at BetOnline along with +130 Over 5.0 at Bovada.
Jacksonville Division Finish (First +1800, Second +800, 3rd +350, 4th -325 at Bovada)
This is a pass for me, but I wanted to highlight it because the only conceivable bet here is biting the juice and taking -325 for fourth place. While I do think over 4.5 wins is a sharp bet, I in no way think that Jacksonville has a chance to finish top-two in the AFC South for just the second time in the last decade. The only way I see Jacksonville placing third is if Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill or Philip Rivers suffers a serious injury.
For what it’s worth, I like Indianapolis to finish first in the division (+120). The Colts led at halftime in 11 games last year but kept blowing leads, and the upgrade of Rivers over Jacoby Brissett should help flip that trend. Indianapolis is also set to face the easiest schedule in the NFL in terms of projected win totals.
Most Regular Season Losses: Jacksonville +250 at Bovada
This is also a pass for me, for all of the reasons I like Jacksonville to surpass its win total- namely motivation from its players and coaches, a favorable schedule and potential second-year improvement from Minshew.
I do like the Jets +1200 in this spot, as New York lost considerable defensive talent, has zero returning offensive line starters, faces a difficult schedule of opposing defenses and still employs an incompetent head coach.
Gardner Minshew 3499.5 Passing Yards (Over +110, Under -145 at Bovada)
Last season, Minshew passed for 2,849 yards on 418 attempts in 12 starts, which was on pace for 3,799 yards and 557 attempts in a full 16-game season. So if Minshew performs exactly the same next season and plays all 16 games- which seems likely given the lack of previous injuries and quarterback competition- this should be an easy over.
Even if he misses a couple games, 3,500 passing yards is reachable- of the 20 quarterbacks who started at least 14 games last season, only four failed to surpass 3,500 passing yards. And of the 14 quarterbacks who threw at least 500 passes last season, only two failed to surpass 3,500 passing yards.
With a year of experience under his belt along with a new offensive coordinator, added passing-game weapons and negative projected game scripts, Minshew should be more productive in his sophomore season. It’s also fair to expect Minshew to slightly decrease his scramble attempts (his 50 scrambles led the league) and increase his average depth of target (his 7.1 aDOT ranked 27th).
If Minshew just takes a second-year leap OR plays close to 16 games, this over should cash easily.
D.J. Chark 964.5 Receiving Yards (Odds not yet available at BetOnline)
Similar to Minshew’s prop, Chark likely just needs to play close to 16 games or continue his ascension for this over to hit. He reached 1,008 yards in 15 games last season (16-game pace of 1,075) while maintaining a 22% target share. He’ll be peppered with targets in what figures to be a pass-heavy, comeback-chasing offense, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his target share or overall number of targets increase in his third NFL season.
Chark has had great camp for a second straight offseason and should easily be able to reach 1,000 receiving yards for a second straight season assuming good health.
Dede Westbrook 585.5 Receiving Yards (Odds not yet available at BetOnline)
Last season, Westbrook recorded 660 receiving yards in 15 games (16-game pace of 704 yards). But unlike Minshew and Chark, Westbrook’s role in the offense this year is questionable. He’s missed time in camp due to a shoulder injury that’s bothered him since last season, and ESPN’s Mike DiRocco listed him as a possible release candidate.
While Minshew and Chark could each see even more volume this season, Westbrook’s is likely to decrease with the emergence of rookie receiver Laviska Shenault, who has been impressive in camp. Westbrook’s role in the offense as a low average depth of target slot receiver means he’ll need to see adequate targets to produce a lot of yards, unlike someone like Chris Conley who can quickly eat up yards with chunk plays as a perimeter deep threat. With that target volume in question, the under is a wise play here.
Josh Allen 8.5 Sacks (Odds not yet available at BetOnline)
Last season, Allen registered 10.5 sacks, which ranked first among all rookies and 14th among all players. But he recorded 2.5 sacks over expected (which ranked 11th-most in the league) based on his 12.9% pressure rate which ranked 32nd. Allen’s 17% pass rush win rate was near league-average, and while he was double-teamed at the 11th-highest rate among edge rushers last season, he could see even more double teams this season in the absence of Campbell and Ngakoue.
Additionally, Allen may not see many sack opportunities, as the Jaguars figure to be playing from behind in the majority of its games. Allen is unlikely to get the benefit of shootout games and could be playing against the run more often than not if teams are rushing to chew the clock with a lead against Jacksonville.
To be clear, Allen is a very good edge rusher and is arguably Jacksonville’s best current player. But it’s unlikely that he comes close to back-to-back double-digit sack seasons. Even though regression is already baked into the number, I still like the under here.
To recap, here are my recommended bets:
Jaguars Over 4.5 Wins
Minshew Over 3,499.5 Passing Yards
Chark Over 964.5 Receiving Yards
Westbrook Under 585.5 Receiving Yards
Allen Under 8.5 Sacks
Colts to Win AFC South
Jets to Lose Most Regular Season Games
