Jaguars 2023 Season Review: Wide Receivers
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense had a down-year in 2023. Lawrence’s apparent regression, one of least efficient ground attacks in the league, and an offensive coordinator that seemed out of place all contributed to the NFL’s 13th-best total offense.
Out of context, that’s quite an accomplishment; when you factor in the Jaguars ninth-ranked offense in 2022, and the fact that the roster remained largely unchanged, it becomes clear that something went wrong on that side of the ball.
One area the team will need to improve upon is their wide receivers. A group that was highly-touted following the addition of Calvin Ridley, the unit never quite lived up to the preseason hype and struggled to stay healthy down the stretch. With their top three target-getters all 28 or older, a majority of the receiving corps will begin to regress over the next few years.
The Jaguars need to figure out their long-term plans for Ridley and the remainder of the position group as soon as possible, and before they can, they will have to take a microscope to each player’s 2023 season. On Jaguar Report, it’s only natural we should do the same.
Calvin Ridley
2023: 76 REC, 136 TGTS, 1,016 YARDS, 13.4 AVG, 8 TD
Make no mistake, Calvin Ridley did little to improve his stock with the Jaguars moving forward. When factoring in the expectations laid upon his shoulders ahead of the 2023-24 NFL season, I’d argue the former Atlanta Falcon had one of the worst years of his career.
Ridley finished his most recent campaign with 76 receptions for 1,016 receiving yards; the second 1,000-yard season of his career. He averaged 13.4 yards per reception, the third-highest mark of his career, and scored eight touchdowns.
He did it all on 136 targets, the second-highest total in a single season since being drafted in 2018. For Ridley the deep-ball quickly became the most potent weapon in his arsenal, however, his 55.9% catch rate limited his passer rating when targeted to just 89.7. For context, quarterback Trevor Lawrence posted a passer rating of 88.5 on the season.
As a team, Jacksonville quarterbacks recorded a cumulative passer rating of 89.3, which ranked 19th in the NFL and placed them among the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles (89.9, 18th) and the Indianapolis Colts (85.0, 20th). When targeted, Ridley was about as successful as the Eagles’ and Colts’ respective 16th and 20th-ranked passing offenses in 2023.
As an Atlanta Falcon, Ridley was a quarterback’s dream; his passer rating when targeted dipped below 102 just once across his four years with the franchise. That lone season was 2021, one that was mired with controversy for the Alabama product. Despite his notorious flare-out, Ridley caught an average of 65.3% of his passes in Atlanta.
Ridley certainly took a step forward from that five-game 2021 campaign, but it wasn’t a very large one. Thankfully, the draft compensation to acquire his services was minimal; a 2023 fifth-round pick and a conditional 2024 pick that projects to be a third-rounder barring an extension. That conditional pick was previously a fourth-rounder following Ridley’s inclusion on the 53-man roster, but was upgraded after he met the 75-catch, 1,000-yard, threshold.
Ridley may have produced the numbers, but his week-over-week impact was far from what the Jaguars anticipated. Of the 15 games in which Ridley recorded four or more targets, he totaled 40 receiving yards or less in seven of them. He gained 50 or more in each of the other eight contests, eclipsing the century mark four times; a far-cry from the eight 100-yard games he posted during his phenomenal 2020 campaign.
The Fort Lauderdale native is a boom-or-bust playmaker, not the consistent number one option the Jaguars need to better compliment the skillsets of other weapons like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Speaking of Kirk, I find it foolish to use his career year last season to better understand Ridley’s 2023 season.
When comparing them side-by-side, you’ll find these two seasons to be eerily similar; Kirk caught 84 balls on 133 targets for 1,108 yards while Ridley caught 76 passes on 136 targets for 1,016 yards. Both scored eight touchdowns and averaged just over 13 yards per reception.
Where the similarities end, however, is in their efficiency. Kirk caught 63.2% of his targets to Ridley’s aforementioned 55.9%, and obviously out-gained the former Falcon by 100 yards. More recently, Kirk was in the midst of one of the most productive seasons of his career before a core muscle injury ended his season.
With Lawrence due for a new contract by 2025, the Jaguars will be forced to make some tough financial decisions if they have any hope of fielding a championship-caliber roster in the near-future. When the Jaguars signed Kirk in 2022, his contract paid him an average of $18 million per year. Given how the market has ballooned in the years since, it’s difficult to imagine Ridley wanting anything less than $20 million per year.
That is a number the Jaguars cannot afford to pay, especially to a receiver who’s best days are likely behind him. Ridley gave the team some fantastic performances, and played extremely well given his unique circumstances.
However, unless Ridley is content taking considerably less than market value, his time in Duval County has likely already come to an end.
Christian Kirk
2023: 57 REC, 85 TGTS, 787 YARDS, 13.8 AVG, 3 TD
Last season, Christian Kirk served as the team’s number one option outside the numbers to great effect; he finished the season 1,108 yards, good for the 14th-highest mark in the NFL in 2022. For the first time in his career the former Cardinal had eclipsed 1,000 yards, and did so in style, averaging 13.2 yards per reception.
Kirk’s knack for explosive plays not only continued in his second year in Jacksonville, but benefitted from the arrival of Ridley. Playing alongside a speedy threat like Ridley drew a lot of attention away from Kirk which was, at times, exploited by offensive coordinator Press Taylor.
In the Jaguars week five bout with the Buffalo Bills, two consecutive rushes for no gain doomed Jacksonville’s opening drive. Following a Bills punt, the Jaguars took the field at their own 27-yard line with intentions to score; Press Taylor got in his bag.
On the drive’s opening play, operating out of 11 personnel with both Kirk and Ridley on the left side of the formation, a pre-snap motion from Ridley turned into a handoff. A clever cut-block from left tackle Cam Robinson gave Ridley the angle he needed to gain the edge, which he secured for a gain of 11. Taylor had, in one play, planted the threat of Ridley’s speed in the mind of each and every Bills defender.
On the ensuing play, Taylor took advantage of a flat-footed Buffalo defense with a smart play-action call out of 12 personnel. This time, Ridley began on the left and Kirk on the right. On the snap, Ridley ran a seam-route that carried his man-on defender up and out of the left flat, which opened the opportunity for a dump-off to either Travis Entienne Jr. or Evan Engram.
So, what’s the benefit of a quick handoff to Ridley on the previous play? As Ridley runs up the seam, he draws both safeties to the top of his route just long enough for Kirk to break wide-open in the left third. Recognizing his advantage against the zone, Kirk sharply cuts his route underneath Jordan Poyrer, who gets caught flat-footed in the blink of an eye. By the time he catches up, and one of the two safeties picking up Ridley’s seam route drops back down to make the tackle, Kirk had already picked up a gain of 30 yards.
Utilizing Kirk as their ‘big-play’ threat paid massive dividends for the Jaguars throughout the season, and given how successful he was in this role it’s hard to argue against his importance to the offense. The stats support it as well; Kirk recorded a 104.6 passer rating when targeted, nearly a full 15 points better than Ridley’s 89.7 and well above the Jaguars team average of 89.3.
This is nothing new to the former Cardinal, however. In 2022 Kirk posted a rating of 104.7 despite operating as the team’s number one receiver throughout the season, second on the team to Engram's 111.4. Last season Kirk thrived over the middle, specifically in the hook/curl. This year he remained efficient in those areas, but took massive strides in the left deep third and deep half.
Outside the numbers and past the line to gain, Kirk was unstoppable on the left side. Securing 10 of 13 targets for over 250 yards and a touchdown, Kirk made life miserable for deep safeties time and time again in 2023. Benefiting most from his deep-ball ability was Lawrence, who recorded a 104.3 passer rating when targeting Kirk 10 or more yards down the field and outside the left hash. On targets 20 or more yards down the field, outside the numbers on the left, he posted a perfect passer rating of 158.3.
These two figures represent massive strides for Kirk, who failed to generate a passer rating higher than 92 on 10+ yard throws outside the numbers last season. His growth as an outside receiver resulted in standout performances against the Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, and New Orleans. This is not only represented by his raw numbers, but by his 65+ PFF grade in each, Including his 78-yard effort against Buffalo.
Kirk eclipsed a 65+ receiving grade seven times, including a four game stretch from weeks two through five where he accomplished the feat three times. Much went wrong for Jacksonville on offense in 2023, Kirk was not one of them.
Zay Jones
2023: 34 REC, 64 TGTS, 321 YARDS, 9.4 AVG, 2 TD
Zay Jones served as the third option in the passing game for both the Buffalo Bills and the Las Vegas Raiders, and with Jacksonville he has operated in a similar role. After a career-year in 2022, much was expected of the former East Carolina Pirate.
Unfortunately for Jones, injuries shortened his season and limited him to just nine games. In those games Jones proved to be a reliable target for Lawrence out of the slot, but struggled with the same issues as Ridley; a middling catch percentage.
After securing 42% and 56.6% of his targets in his first two seasons with Buffalo, Jones began a stretch of reliability that saw him average a 70.5 catch percentage across 43 games with the Raiders. In his first season with Jacksonville Jones caught 67.8% of his passes, good for 81st in the NFL.
This season, Jones only caught 54.8% of his targets and good for the 185th-best percentage in the league. It was his lowest catch rate in a season since his rookie year. Despite his frustrating catch percentage, however, Jones proved reliable in a multitude of zones across the field.
Judging his season as it pertains to his depth of target, PFF assigns targets and receptions to one of four ‘zones’ on the field. These zones–behind the line of scrimmage, short, medium, and deep–are differentiated by increments of 10 yards, with short being anywhere from zero to nine yards from the LOS, medium being 10 to 19, and deep recognized as 20 or more yards down the field. By splitting the field into these ‘zones,’ we can better understand how impactful a player was in each separate circumstance.
Jones graded above PFF’s 60-point average in each of the field’s four zones of depth, averaging a receiving grade of 85.53 when excluding his lone target behind the LOS. His 2023 total only dipped four points below his 2022 average of 89.95, made more impressive when considering how harshly his target share dropped. So while Jones struggled at the catch point, PFF graded him as one of the Jaguars more reliable pass-catchers.
While there are a myriad of reasons why Lawrence and Jones’ connection seemed to sour this year, his dip in production could prove fatal for his place on the Jacksonville 53-man roster. There is a potential out in his contract this offseason, with the team saving over $7 million dollars in cap space should they opt to release him with a post-June 1st designation.
All signs point to a release for Jones, though his connection with Lawrence could offer him a path toward remaining in Duval county.
Jamal Agnew
2023: 14 REC, 21 TGTS, 225 YARDS, 16.1 AVG, 1 TD
A seven-year veteran and fifth-round pick out of San Diego, Jamal Agnew has found success as a kick returner since his rookie season in Detroit. In Jacksonville, Agnew’s role had room for growth.
Since signing with the team ahead of the 2021 NFL season, Agnew has served admirably as the team’s primary kick returner. In 2023, Agnew enjoyed arguably the most productive season of his career catching the football.
Agnew shined in an early-season battle with the Houston Texans, and later scored a 65-yard touchdown in their Week 15 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. PFF gave him an average receiving grade relative to his previous seasons with Jacksonville, but saw his offensive grade dip in a more streamlined role.
Since signing with the Jaguars, Agnew’s usage in the rushing attack has proved incredibly successful. Agnew ran for nearly 200 yards on just 20 attempts from 20221 to 2022, ripping off six 10+ yard runs and gaining nine first downs in that span. In 2023, Agnew toted the ball five times for a loss of two yards.
His longest rush of the season went for only one yard.
On his first rushing attempt of the season, I’ll give Press Taylor a bit of credit for being cute. Out of 11-personnel, Taylor aligns the X and Y receivers on opposite sides of the line with Engram in the slot to the right. He hides Agnew off the line on the Y receiver’s outside hip, and motions Engram across the line forming a bunch with Jones and Agnew. As he arrives Agnew sprints towards the backfield, then the ball is snapped and tossed his way.
The center and guard combo block the nose tackle, and the right guard passes the 3-technique off to Anton Harrison and sprints to the second level to engage Zaire Franklin. Left tackle Walker Little hauls you-know-what to the left, giving Agnew a much-needed extra blocker; both Jones and Engram whiff on their blocking assignments, while Franklin navigates the traffic to stop Agnew for no gain.
Time and time again in the 2023 season, the Jaguars didn’t have the appropriate personnel for the things they wanted to accomplish on offense. This rush from Agnew is the perfect example of that. Relying upon Jones and Engram’s size–and Brandon Schreff’s athleticism at age 32–to deliver your most crucial blocks is bad play design from Press Taylor, and one of the many reasons the organization felt it necessary to review his role.
Agnew is a dynamic piece that can unlock a lot for the Jacksonville offense with his unique threat as a ‘big-play’ specialist. This year, those strengths weren’t utilized properly. Should Agnew remain on the roster, I expect a reevaluation of his role to be paramount for an offense in flux.
Parker Washington
2023: 16 REC, 21 TGTS, 132 YARDS, 8.3 AVG, 2 TD
Parker Washington, the sixth-round Penn State product, was expected to serve as a special teamer for the majority of his rookie season. His first appearance was in an Oct. 1 thrashing of the Falcons, his second came over a month and a half later.
Across his first three games, Washington received a handful of snaps on offense. Jacksonville utilized his 212-pound frame to aid in outside blocking in the ground game, and on special teams where the former Nittany Lion returned two punts for a grand total of 27 yards.
His first opportunity as a receiver came following Christian Kirk’s first quarter injury against the Bengals. Washington took full advantage of the 35 passing snaps he received, catching all six of his targets for 61 yards and a score. He followed that up with a two-catch, 27-yard performance against the Cleveland Browns that saw him score his second of the year.
After posting a 70.6 receiving grade against the Bengals he regressed to the mean versus Cleveland, posting a 50.7 grade according to PFF. Over the season’s final four games, Washington averaged 28.25 offensive snaps per game and a receiving grade of 51.5. On the year, he received a 53.4; good for 111th out of 128 qualified wideouts.
Washington found ways to use his size to overpower corners and safeties after the catch, and displayed some of the ball skills that made him a draftable prospect. His rookie season may have been a disappointment to some, but to suggest he’ll eventually develop into a reliable option out of the slot is far from outlandish.
Tim Jones
2023: 11 REC, 18 TGTS, 83 YARDS, 8.3 AVG, 0 TD
One of just two Jaguars wide receivers to play all 17 games, Tim Jones had every opportunity to see the field and make an impact. Unfortunately for him and all of Duval faithful, that never materialized for the former Southern Mississippi Golden Eagle.
Despite a seismic lack of production, he graded out fairly well according to PFF. Jones’ receiving grade dipped below 50 only once, and he proved to possess a set of reliable hands in his 18 targets. We must recognize, however, his limited snap count in the wake of injuries to key Jaguars receivers.
Jacksonville faced a full-on emergency at wide receiver in the final month of the season, and only turned to Jones in a handful of contests. In his second season as a Jaguar, Jones saw an uptick in snaps and targets but only due to the aforementioned injury woes the team faced. Should Kirk and Zay Jones remain healthy, it’s hard to imagine him seeing such an increased role.
For those among you who aren’t fans of Parker Washington, you should be a fan of Jones. He remained below Washington on the depth chart for the season’s final stretch, and failed to have a ‘breakout’ performance like Washington’s 60-yard day against Cincinnati.
Jones is a solid athlete, and like Washington, possesses strong skills at the catch point. There are, however, only so many roster spots to go around. I’d be surprised to see him maintaining his 17-game role next season.
