Jaguars Mailbag: What is the Answer at Left Tackle in 2021?
Each week during this year's offseason, Jaguar Report will take Jacksonville Jaguars-related questions from our readers across social media and answer them in a question-and-answer format, giving readers a chance to have their voices heard.
You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle.
This week we take questions on the left tackle position, Orlando Brown, Trevor Lawrence's approaching workout date, and more.
Q: As a Florida fan, I love Toney. As a Jaguar fan, I just don't see him as a 1st round pick due to lack of top-end speed and size. Why am I not hearing more about this? It's possible he has greatly improved his speed. He did look faster last year. Guessing 4.6 right now though.
A: This is a good question. If anyone called Kadarius Toney a first-round prospect entering the season, then it would have been a massive stretch considering the two points you just raised + his lack of production before 2020. This obviously changed when he had a breakout season last fall and was one of college football's big-play threats, but it should be noted that he is far from a complete prospect.
With that said, there are reasons to think Toney as a first-round pick makes sense. His improvement in 2020 suggests he is still an ascending player who has yet to hit his ceiling and max out. He may not have a blazing 40 speed, but he is dangerously quick in a phone booth and could be utilized in horizontal passing schemes like we have seen with Deebo Samuel and the 49ers.
Q: we’re seeing some flattering metrics come out for Minshew, but I also know what I watched. Why does Minshew look so good on paper and so bad on screen?
A: The answer is somewhere in the middle. Minshew isn't as bad as his poor 2020 season would suggest, but he isn't as good as some metrics may hint he is, either. With that said, Minshew's play style likely plays a big role in this. He is more of a conservative passer, which means he will find efficient opportunities and attempt to shy away from negative plays. He didn't have many turnover-worthy plays in his shortened 2020 season, which likely makes him look more valuable in terms of metrics.
Q: Do the Jags intend to play two games I'm London this year, travel permitting? It seems with all the excitement and increased ticket sales that only one may be necessary.
A: As of now, there is no contract between the Jaguars and the NFL for any games to be played in London in 2021. The Jaguars' deal with the league expired following the 2020 season, which was always the case. This doesn't mean the league and Jaguars may not attempt to strike a new agreement, but playing games overseas seems like a hugely unnecessary risk at this point. Until the Jaguars say there is news on this front, then there isn't much new to say.
Q: Is Trevor still the unanimous overall 1st pick now that he has an injury/surgery pending? Please say yes...
A: Yes. It is his non-throwing shoulder and his agency says he should be fine for training camp. This doesn't appear to be any serious concern, so it shouldn't impact his draft stock or the chances of him being selected No. 1 overall.
Q: If the Jags could only get two additions, which ones? Matthew Judon, Shaq Barrett, Trade for Orlando Brown, Hunter Henry, or Anthony Harris?
A: I love this question because it is such a hard one to answer. Matthew Judon would make a ton of sense due to his Baltimore Ravens connections, so I am going to lean toward him for one addition to pair him with Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson. Shaq Barrett is a better pass-rusher, but Judon is more balanced and a better fit. After that ... I guess Hunter Henry? I love Orlando Brown's game but this is a deep tackle class, so I am not sure giving up likely the No. 25 pick for a potential rental player would be wise. Harris, meanwhile, took a big step back in 2020 and there are legit questions about his value on the open market. Henry would at least set up Jacksonville's No. 1 overall pick at quarterback to be successful.
Q: What kind of money bag will the Jags give Matt Judon and will it be announced before FA starts or the first day of free agency?
A: I expect for the Jaguars to contend for Judon's services due to his clear connections to the Ravens' defense and the Jaguars' additions of three coaches from Baltimore, but I don't think it should be considered a lock that he signs with the Jaguars. The Jaguars are likely still immensely high on Allen and Chaisson and may not want to spend big on a player who would take snaps from them. With that said, Spotrac has Judon's market value at a four-year contract for $62,454,663, giving him an average salary of $15,613,666. Expect for Judon to get a few million more per year than this figure, though, so perhaps the Jaguars would have to drop a deal worth over $18 million annually?
Q: With Trevor Lawrence not doing the Clemson workout and just throwing for teams on the 12th, even though it is his non-throwing arm that needs surgery, what does his future for Jacksonville look like?
A: Bright. Lawrence's injury doesn't appear serious, so I don't think him having surgery before training camp opens changes anything about his trajectory or his ultimate ceiling with the Jaguars. He should still be the top pick without any hesitation.
Q: Why is Trevor throwing for anyone?
A: The easy answer is that Lawrence just doesn't seem like the type of person who would be willing to accept he is the likely No. 1 pick and coast through the rest of the draft process. There have already been reports this offseason of Lawrence intending to go through the draft season as a player who isn't expecting to be the top pick, so it isn't surprising in the least that he wants to throw for teams.
Q: How many FA are the Jags targeting this off-season and who do you think they are?
A: I think the Jaguars will sign around seven free agents, including three major names. This is just for the wave of free agency in March, though, because the Jaguars will clearly sign more available players than that before the offseason draws to a close. I think Matthew Judon, Justin Simmons, and Leonard Williams will ultimately be the signings.
Q: Are we set at LT? If not, is the answer in FA or in the draft?
A: The answer as of today is no. If there was a season today, Will Richardson would be at left tackle due to Cam Robinson's contract expiring in March.
The answer is likely in free agency considering the Jaguars are set to have a rookie quarterback under center in 2021. The Jaguars could extend or tag Robinson, while signing Trent Williams to a massive deal should remain an option as well. This is a fantastic class for offensive tackles, though, so the Jaguars will have plenty of options if that is the path they go on.
Q: Who should be the top FA targets for this new Jaguars regime?
A: Justin Simmons, John Johnson III, William Jackson, Leonard Williams, Matthew Judon, and Jonnu Smith should be the names near the top of their list, in our view.
Q: So, is Joe Cullen a 3-4 or 4-3 guy?
A: I kind of doubt he is married to any kind of scheme. He has coached both 4-3 and 3-4 defensive lines in the past, so he has a ton of experience and knowledge with both. With that said, the hirings of other Ravens coaches, including Zach Orr as an outside linebackers coach, and the potential addition of Bob Sutton as a defensive assistant indicate to me that the Jaguars will run a 3-4 defense in its base formations.
