Jaguars Offseason Mailbag: Free Agents, Biggest Needs, Next Step for Lawrence and More
The Jacksonville Jaguars made a great run at it in Doug Pederson's first year at the helm.
2022 saw them post their first winning record in five years, the second AFC South title in franchise history, a home playoff win, and a chance to go toe-to-toe with the NFL's best quarterback in the playoffs. All in all, it was a clear rousing success.
Now, though, the Jaguars have to accept the reality of the NFL, which is that the past is just the past. The Jaguars can't relish in their success in 2022 and simply hope for an automatic return to success like they did in 2017 and 2018.
This leads us to the offseason and, as a result, our first offseason mailbag. Taking questions on the Jaguars' strategy for this offseason, which free agents may leave and which may stay, Trevor Lawrence's next step and more, we address it all below.
Q: What does Trevor’s peak look like? Is there any current/past QB that he reminds you of?
This is a great question, because it is clear that we still haven't seen Lawrence's final evolved level yet. Lawrence had a terrific 2022 season -- arguably one of the best, if not the best, quarterback seasons in franchise history. Yet there is still the reality that Lawrence should be only better moving forward.
Lawrence will be 23 years old with 36 starts under his belt in Week 1 of 2023, with a second offseason of Doug Pederson's offense under his belt. He will still have Press Taylor, Mike McCoy, most of the same receiving and running back rooms, mostly the same offensive line, and Calvin Ridley added to the picture.
Ultimately, I think Lawrence's peak will look like an MVP-caliber quarterback. 35 touchdown passes doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility next season, to me. Who does he remind me of? My pre-draft comparison for him was Matthew Stafford with more juice, but I have since formed a greater appreciation for his decision-making. He takes big risks, but they are calculated ones. I think a more athletic, but less powerful, Andrew Luck is who he can ultimately look like.
Q: Any word at all on how Calvin Ridley looks physically right now? Is he ready to play again?
A: I can report from a source with knowledge of Ridley's workouts as of late that the veteran receiver looks "in prime shape." Ridley has earned rave reviews from those who have seen him workout and prepare for his NFL return. He will be more than ready to play, I beleive.
Q: What moves would YOU do with the roster (cuts/reconstructions/pending FA re-signings)?
This is tough because I think a lot of the guys that people, including myself, saw as potential cap casulities in 2023 played their way into deserving to stay. This includes Rayshawn Jenkins, Roy Robertson-Harris and Jamal Agnew. I would attempt to potentially restructure the trio to free up some 2023 cap. As for players to save money, I would waive Shaquill Griffin, let Jawaan Taylor and the rest of free-agents not named Evan Engram, Dawuane Smoot and Arden Key walk. The Jaguars can ultimately push money down the road in a number of ways, but I would try to keep the same cast of characters while letting go one of the most expensive pieces in Griffin.
Q: What do we need to do on defense to be able to cover the TE position? Kelce was open all game.
The honest answer? You need better play from your second linebacker. Foyesade Oluokun is one of the best inside linebackers in football but he is clearly a stronger run defender than pass defender. The issue for the Jaguars this year was teams could pick on Devin Lloyd and Chad Muma, along with exploiting the Jaguars' scheme in terms of getting tight ends against safeties in man coverage. If the Jaguars want to stop Kelce next year, they will simply need their young linebackers to improve.
Q: In the grand scheme, probably inconsequential, but you think Baalke makes that James Robinson trade still knowing the Jaguars go on a win streak into the playoffs?
Honestly, yes. I think the Jaguars traded Robinson because they knew they could get something for a player they had durability concerns about and would not retain in 2023. Considering the Jaguars are a pass-first offense and couldn't support Robinson and Etienne both by nature, I think the Jaguars would still make that deal.
Q: What are some realistic FA targets for the Jags?
I will have a deeper answer on this later, but here are three guys who interest me.
- Bengals RB Samaje Perine. The Jaguars' No. 2 running back from 2023 is a free agent and Perine is a much more natural fit for a compliment to Travis Etienne.
- Eagles OT Andre Dillard. Doug Pederson was the Eagles head coach when he was a first-round pick and there are reasons to believe the talent is still there. It is smarter to have a veteran swing tackle than a rookie one.
- Jets DL Sheldon Rankins. The Jaguars need to replace some interior depth in Corey Peters and Adam Gotsis, and Rankins gives them more of an interior push along their front.
Q: Darnell Washington a viable option?
I think so. We won't have to pretend the Jaguars really care that much about positional value as opposed to scheme/culture fit when you look at the investments in interior defensive and offensive linemen and linebackers the last two years, so taking a tight end at No. 24 shouldn't be out of the question in any fashion.
Washington would be a natural replacement for Chris Manhertz, who played 38% of the snaps for the Jaguars in 2022. Washington would be more dynamic of a receivering threat, so the hope would be the Jaguars could use him a bit more than Manhertz, who was more or less a designated extension of the running game. Washington is an elite blocker and big-bodied target, and the Jaguars won't have either in 2023 without Manhertz.
Q: What (assumably) cheap/affordable veterans would you want the jags to target after they make cuts/restructures? Two I’m looking at before cap cuts are A’Shawn Robinson + Antoine Weasley
I like those names a lot. A few others I think make sense are Matt Ioannidis, Andrew Billings and DeMarcus Walker.
Q: I noticed you omitted Jawaan from your “will be back” tweet the other day. Care to elaborate?And also just interested in your take on our OT triangle in general.
In a perfect world, the Jaguars see Jawaan Taylor return in 2023 and have three starting NFL tackles on their roster. But having three tackles of that caliber is a rare privilege for a reason -- it just doesn't happen. Tackles get paid. Tackles of Taylor's age, durability, draft pedigree and talent are bound to get a bag in the offseason, especially considering the season he just had. Taylor can look at Cam Robinson's contract last year, for example, and say he just had a better season, is younger and is more durable, so why can't he get paid the same, if not more?
In short, Taylor's pricetag is, to me, going to be more than the Jaguars can responsibly pay when they already have a replacement who is battle-tested on hand in Walker Little. The Jaguars made their bed with the tackle room when they paid Robinson, in my eyes, and there is no going back now, even after the year Taylor had. Taylor deserves to hit the market and get paid, and Little deserves to be the Week 1 starter at right tackle next year.
Q: Is Trevor top 5 already?
You can make an argument he was a top-five quarterback for the 2022 season. The NFL saw some stars like Lamar Jackson not play a full year, and then there are passers like Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts who deserve consideration. I think Lawrence is top-10 right now, with a chance to be top-five sooner than later. Just give him a bit more time.
Q: Mr. Shipley I would like to hear your top 5 press box food spreads around the league this season.
The Jaguars had great wings and churros at different points of the season. The Chiefs had better rib and burnt ends than most restaurants, too. That is all I got.
Q: We can't make this defense more effective with our current personnel, can we? What positions can we upgrade & are we better suited for a 4-3 or 3-4?
I honestly think a lot of players on the Jaguars' defense would benefit from a move to a 4-3, including Travon Walker and Foley Fatukasi. It would help get Devin Lloyd and Chad Muma on the field more, too, and ensure the Jaguars don't have their pass-rushers covering quite as much as they did this year. I would make the move to a 4-3 because I think they already have the personnel for it.
Q: Will this current coaching staff make pounding the rock a staple of this offense? Imagine having Trevor with JRob and ETN.
I don't think so. I think the Jaguars will work to get better as a short-yardage rushing team, but I do not think the Jaguars under Doug Pederson will ever be a run-heavy team. They will run when it is advantageous too, but this is a passing franchise niw
Q: Is it just me or would drafting a TE high after resigning Engram be dumb? I know we need depth, but I don’t think a rookie TE2 moves the needle. Doug used a lot of 2 TE sets in Philly because his receivers weren’t great.
A: They need to be able to block or be a red-zone threat to make it worth it considering Engram, Kirk, Zay Jones, and Ridley will all need to be fed. It would make sense for the future since the tight end room needs some youth in it, but I don't necessarily disagree.
Q: Even with Ridley, how much is the offense in need of a bigger outside guy that can win contested catches? Is there a significant role for that kind of thing Pederson’s offense?
I think there is definitely a need for that. Marvin Jones was the closest thing the Jaguars had to that this year, and he is set to be a free agent. I think adding a contested-catch pass-catcher in some capacity should be a priority, even if it means making it a rookie.
Q: How would you prioritize re-signing their own FAs? Would you try to extend Josh Allen now, or see how he plays on 5th Y.O.?
I would look to make Engram the top priority, then Key, then Smoot, and then the fringe special teams guys. I would bring back C.J. Beathard and Tre Herndon, specifically.
As for Allen, I would let him play on the fifth-year option. There is still another level he can hit, and his stretch to end 2022 showed he could hit it with this staff.
Q: Did we get away from the run too much? We struggled to protect long enough for passes downfield but had a lot of success running
In my opinion, yes. Maybe the Jaguars didn't think they could run against the Chiefs' front consistently, and maybe they thought with the Chiefs' pressure looks that they could generate bigger plays by throwing it, but I do think they should have ran it much more.
Q: Interested if money wise would it be a good idea to shop Cam?
The Jaguars would still be on the hook for a big chunk of his guaranteed cash pending a trade, plus you would still have to pay Taylor roughly what you paid Robinson. Add in the fact that Robinson is expensive and coming off an injury, I do not think he would have a big market. He is more valuable to the Jaguars.
Q: Why did Doug kick the field goal to close out the half? Also could have used a timeout (had 2) to try and convert in 3rd and get a td
I think he just wanted to get points on what was looking like a tough day offensively, honestly. There was still a lot of time left for the Jaguars to score later in the game, and I think at that point he just wanted to close the gap.
Q: How much different do you see the passing game being with Ridley? And do the sign Engram or draft TE or both?
I think the vertical game will be opened up to a large degree. The Jaguars will finally have an X receiver who can win in isolated matchups and on the backside of 3-by-1 formations, which is something the offense has never had with Lawrence. In short, the middle of the field will be opened up as a result of the deep threat.
As for TE, I would re-sign Engram and also draft a tight end and maybe even two. The Jaguars have just Luke Farrell under contract right now.
Q: Knowing the team needs to make salary cap room. What players could be on the trade block or even surprisingly released?
I am not sure if any are, honestly. The Jaguars love what Cam Robinson brings as a culture guy, so he won't be traded. Maybe they surprise and deal a defensive lineman, but I doubt it. I think they roll with the same crew outside of some natural additions next year.
Q: ETN was very successful in the touches he had against the Chiefs, why wasn’t he more involved to set up the passing game? And will that look different in August?
Because I think the Jaguars and Doug Pederson saw their passing game running through Kirk, Zay Jones, and Engram. The scheme just doesn't call for running backs to be a big part of the passing game other than as check downs or on screens, and I do not see that changing with Calvin Ridley being added to the picture in 2023.
If it comes down to Arden Key or Evan Engram, who do you think we should resign?
Engram. Arden Key is one of the heart and souls of the defense, but Engram makes Trevor Lawrence better, and Lawrence succeeding is the true path to success for the Jaguars moving forward.
Q: When do we extend Trevor's contract? The sooner the better.
After his fifth season. I am of the firm belief the Jaguars will have Lawrence play the next two years on his rookie deal, pick up his fifth-year option, and then start paying him his otherworldly salary in his sixth season. So, three more years to gear up until then and retain guys like Tyson Campbell, Andre Cisco, and Walker Little.
Q: If Agnew doesn’t fumble the ball do you think we come back and win the game?
I do think they win the game. I am a firm believer in momentum, and the Jaguars would have had all of it. The Chiefs struggled to move the ball in the second half other than one drive, so I think the pure juice the touchdown would have given the Jaguars would have helped the defense get the Chiefs off the field.
Q: What do the need to do to avoid regression?
Develop the young core. If the Jaguars want to keep improving, they need the 2021 and 2022 drafted players to get better than they were this year, even if they had solid seasons during the playoff run.
Q: Are you in favour of going all in to get Hopkins?
I have no earthly clue how it would make sense cap-wise, but with Trevor Lawrence on his rookie deal, the Jaguars should be looking at every single big-name out there. Hopkins would be an elite fit considering his skill set.
