Jaguars vs. Colts: 5 X-Factors
Can the Jacksonville Jaguars pick up a win they need in the worst way this weekend against the Indianapolis Colts?
They hope so. But it will take some important players and even more important breaks. It will also take them fending off a Colts team that is still reeling from their Week 18 loss against the Jaguars last week.
"I think it’s important for both teams. A home game for us, division opponent. We understand what the Colts might be doing, but at the same time, we’ve got to have the same intensity," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said this week.
"We’ve got to match that intensity, and our guys are eager to get out on the field. It should be a great football game. I can’t go back in time, you can’t change anything, and you control today, get better today, and continue to prepare the team for Sunday.”
So, who and what are the X-Factors when it comes to the Jaguars vs. Colts on Sunday? We break down five below.
James Robinson and Travis Etienne's involvement
The question for the Jaguars' offense entering this week is just how much they can get the ball into James Robinson and Travis Etienne's hands. The two were lethal against Washington, touching the ball 18 times for 134 yards (7.44 yards per touch) and two touchdowns. Jacksonville's backs rushed 15 times for 113 yards (7.53 yards per carry), while Trevor Lawrence and the passing game threw it 42 times for 275 yards (6.5 yards per attempt).
Even if the Jaguars don't commit to a completely ground-focused attack on Sunday, it will be important to get Robinson and Etienne the ball. Whether on the ground or through the air, the Jaguars are going to need to make a conscious effort to get two of their three best skill players the ball.
"I think this past game was a pretty cool look at what that combination could be. Different skill sets, but also both of those guys can do whatever you need them to do," Lawrence said this week about the duo.
"They have things that each one of them are particularly good at, but when you need them, they can kind of do whatever, so that gives us a lot of versatility in things that we can do, but just to see how they both impacted the game in different ways, I think that gives everybody a good look at what they can do and what they bring to the table. It’s going to be fun every week figuring out the best position to put them in to maximize the things that they can do for us. Those guys are great and they’re going to help us a lot.”
Doug Pederson's scheme against Gus Bradley's
It is rare the Jaguars have had a play-caller that can scheme up a defense, but the Jaguars saw that against Washington last week. Even if the Jaguars didn't take complete advantage of the open looks for points and big plays Washington presented them with, they can take solace in knowing matchups were there to be won.
The hope now is they can do the same this week against the Colts. The big performer in this regard last week was veteran wide receiver Christian Kirk, but can that continue this week in an AFC South tilt?
"I thought Christian (Kirk) and Trevor took advantage of the matchups we had," Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor said this week.
"We were able to get Christian matched up on linebackers and safeties quite a bit in those situations and based on the way they played their coverages, that’s what we were trying to get done, so the ball just kind of found Christian. Christian ended up making plays with the opportunities that came his way, and we were able to have success when that happened.”
Ultimately, it will come down to Taylor and Pederson against Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and his Cover 3 scheme. Pederson and Taylor clearly know what they are doing from the perspective of designing plays and allowing the quarterback and skill players to get into the position to make plays. Bradley's defense won't hide much and the answers against his scheme have always been known. Can Pederson take advantage?
Red-zone offense
It is hard to believe the Jaguars could have scored even more points last week. 22 points and scores on four consecutive positions weren't enough to get the win against Washington, but it was better than almost every single offensive performance the Jaguars had a year ago. Just by the sheer number of open receivers on the field, the offense was improved by leaps and bounds.
Still, if there was one area the Jaguars' offense struggled, it was the red-zone offense. The Jaguars saw their offense fail to complete one field goal drive into a touchdown, missed another field goal, and then dropped a pass on fourth-down that should have been a touchdown. The Jaguars are tied for second in red-zone trips at five, but their 40% touchdown rate ranks No. 23 in the NFL.
“Looking back on it, I just lacked consistency. I think from myself, from everyone really, just being more consistent around the whole offense, including myself especially. I think you look at the red zone and that’s something where we had a lot of opportunities and didn’t capitalize on them," Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence said this week.
"Whether it was a missed throw, a drop, whatever it was, a few things. Obviously, I’m in that as well with a missed throw. A couple of them that were missed, one to Zay (WR Zay Jones) as well that was close, it probably missed a little bit wide. You look at all of those, and everyone kind of sees that so those are obvious, but you just break down the game and you’re kicking yourself because you had so many opportunities to win the game and you didn’t."
If the Jaguars are going to upset the Colts, they will need their red-zone offense to be much more mistake-free and efficient this week than it was last week or during the preseason and training camp.
The left side of the OL
There have been many criticisms of the Jaguars' offensive line over the last week, though some context is required. For one, the line did well in run blocking, consistently opening holes for James Robinson and Travis Etienne, especially left tackle Cam Robinson. The Washington defensive line is also one of the best the Jaguars will face all year, even without Chase Young.
With that said, things don't get much easier for the Jaguars' offensive line this week. Yannick Ngakoue is no Montez Sweat, but he is a productive veteran pass-rusher who has a history with Cam Robinson after the pair matched up against each other in practice for years in Jacksonville. Then there is defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, who draws left guard Ben Bartch and center Luke Fortner after each allowed multiple pressures in the Commanders' game.
“We know Yan is a great pass rusher. DeForest Buckner (DT) is long at 6’7, 6’8 in the middle. These guys have a good first two-step get-off," Pederson said this week.
"They play extremely tight to the line of scrimmage to the ball, and that’s something that we’ve got to be aware of as we watch tape and prepare for the game is just controlling their front four. Not a blitz-heavy team at all. You kind of know where they’re going to line up on defense, and they play it well. It’s a good test for our offensive line. It’s a good group and guys that can and have gotten after the passer.”
For better or worse, Trevor Lawrence is a different quarterback under pressure than when he has a clean pocket, with most of his poor decisions coming when he is under duress. As long as that is the case, the Jaguars will need their offensive line to step up.
Stopping Jonathan Taylor
No matter how the Colts' game plans may change from week to week or how much their team changes from year to year, there is never any question about where their bread and butter is. Taylor is the heart and engine of the Colts' offense, which was reflected in his Week 1 usage with an NFL-leading 31 carries, nine of which went for first downs against the Houston Texans.
Taylor was a terror for the Colts down the stretch, rushing for 161 yards despite the Colts being down by double-digits in the fourth quarter and needing to stage a comeback to force the game into overtime. If the Jaguars are going to win in Week 2, they will need to limit Taylor's ability to take over the game.
"This guy is so powerful and strong, and he’s got a one-step move, and I think he’s got great vision, and the way they block, he’s really got the ability to wind the ball back behind B-blocks and stuff like that," Pederson said on Friday. "Just a talented guy, and they do a great job of scheming the front that they’re playing, so it makes it hard. That’s why for us, it’s just maintaining discipline with your run lanes.”
Luckily, the Jaguars' run defense was up to the task against Washington a week ago. Only six teams have a lower average rushing yards allowed in 2022 than the Jaguars, though Taylor is a completely different beast. In four career games against the Jaguars, Taylor has averaged 117 yards per game, 6.24 yards per carry and three touchdowns. There are new pieces this year such as Foley Fatukasi and Foyesade Oluokun, but Taylor is still the toughest running back in the NFL to stop.
