Jaguars vs. Commanders: 5 Questions and Game Predictions
It is here. In one day, the Jacksonville Jaguars and 29 other teams will kick off their seasons and welcome back football.
"If we just keep it about us and not worry about the crowd or the weather or any of that and just focus on us and our jobs and what we need to do, I think you can come away with more wins than losses, I think," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Friday. "It’s always a challenge. Everything’s always a bit different. At the same time, it’s part of it, and part of the success every year is how you handle the road.”
The Jaguars have a tough road matchup in the Washington Commanders, but how do we think they match up and what do we think happens? We break it down below.
1) What are you expecting from Trevor Lawrence in his first game under Doug Pederson?
Shipley: I think it is fair to expect Lawrence to look better than he did last year, even if only marginally. If he doesn't look at least slightly improved, even at this early point in the season, there will undoubtedly be some concerns. With that said, anyone expecting for Lawrence to come out and look like a Pro Bowler in his first game under Pederson is likely expecting too much. So I expect Lawrence to look better, though far from perfect.
Hawn: I’m a strong believer in tempered expectations. If you set the bar too high for a player and they don’t live up to it, it can ignore other positive takeaways from their performance. With that being said, Trevor Lawrence will be busy Sunday, but don’t beat up on the guy if he doesn’t immediately showcase a highly anticipated second-year leap, or if the Jags focus more on the run game even with Chase Young out due to injury.
2) Does the Jaguars' inside knowledge of Carson Wentz serve as an advantage?
Shipley: To a degree yes, but not enough that I think it could lead to a win directly as a result. Press Taylor made a good point this week that the Jaguars would have a lot of knowledge about how Carson Wentz would operate in a Doug Pederson or Frank Reich offense, but they don't really have anything on how he can operate in a Scott Turner offense. So, sure, Pederson and Taylor know Wentz well, but I don't think that knowledge will decide a win or loss.
Hawn: Anytime you have insider knowledge on a team’s most important player, you hold a significant advantage over your foe. If anyone knows Carson Wentz and his style/tendencies, it’s Coach Doug Pederson. The two men spent a great deal of time together in Philadelphia after all. The expectation is that the Jaguars put together a solid defensive game plan against a familiar opponent, it is just up to the defense to execute.
3) Who are the most important players on offense and defense?
Shipley:
I am going to say Christian Kirk and Josh Allen. I think Kirk is going to play a big role in terms of being a safety net for Lawrence, which will be vital considering the pressure Washington is capable of bringing on defense. If Kirk can provide a safety valve on third-downs and keep the offense on the field and on schedule, then they have a chance.
As for defensively, I think Allen is the most important player when it comes to the team's pass-rush success. If he can win his one-on-one matchups and match Wentz's athleticism, then the Jaguars have a chance to force the veteran quarterback into some much-needed mistakes. If he can't get home, then the Jaguars could be at the mercy of a young secondary.
Hawn: Offensively, this team goes as far as Trevor Lawrence takes them so he is far and away their most important player. I am curious to see how the duo of James Robinson and Travis Etienne perform as well. If they are able to get the chains moving early on the ground, it’ll make life that much simpler for the Jaguars offense.
Defensively, the most important position group is the defensive line, more specifically the edge rushers. It is up to them to limit running back Antonio Gibson and the Commanders rushing attack and constantly apply pressure on Carson Wentz. If you give Wentz too much time to throw he will make you pay, especially with star wideout Terry McLaurin lining up on the outside.
4) Is this game a must-win for the Jags?
Shipley: I do not think you can call Week 1 a must-win for any team in the NFL, no matter the situation. But I do think the difference between winning and losing this game would be significant for Jacksonville. Getting a win in their debut under Doug Pederson would undoubtedly give them a spark and instill even more self-confidence in Pederson's program. The Jaguars are a team that is still looking to build their confidence and prove they can win football games. Even a "good" loss doesn't do much for them in that regard.
Hawn: With the Jags on a 16-game losing streak against NFC opponents, there is a sense of urgency to win this game and snap the streak. In addition, fans are rightfully tired of a lengthy rebuild and expect immediate results against a winnable opponent. While I do agree that losing this game would be a disappointment, there is no reason to hit the panic button if the Jags come out with a week one loss. For the first time in years, the Jags have a young and solid foundation on both sides of the ball to build on. It takes time to develop into a quality team in the NFL and the Jags are certainly on their way to becoming one. They just gotta hang in there a little bit longer. This all goes back to the tempered expectations point I made earlier.
5) Score prediction?
Shipley: Jaguars win 20-17 in a tough, sometimes sloppy, game against an underrated opponent.
Hawn: Again, this is a very winnable game for the Jags and I do believe that they will emerge as victors in a high scoring, but close 28-24 decision in favor of Jacksonville.
