Mock Draft Roundup: Kiper Projects Pass-Rush Help to Jaguars at No. 1
'Tis the season for mock drafts, a yearly tradition in which media attempt to project how the second-biggest day on the NFL calendar plays out.
As we inch closer and closer to the 2022 NFL Draft, we will be tracking how other national media outlets are projecting the Jacksonville Jaguars to attack the draft and build around 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.
The Jaguars still have a long way to go before deciding on the No. 1 overall pick in April, including figuring out their future direction at both head coach and general manager.
But until then, we can continue to debate the merits of the Jaguars' options at No. 1 overall and what the Jaguars could ultimately decide to do.
So, what is one potential scenario for the Jaguars at No. 1 overall? In this edition of Mock Draft Roundup, we take a look at Mel Kiper's latest mock and what it could mean for the Jaguars.
No. 1 overall: Edge Defender Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
With the Jaguars having their complete pick of the litter at the top of the 2022 NFL Draft, Kiper opted to give the Jaguars some pass-rush help as opposed to taking an offensive lineman in Alabama's Evan Neal, North Carolina State's Ikem Ekwonu, or Mississippi State's Charles Cross. Instead of opting to slot the Jaguars Kayvon Thibodeaux, Kiper goes with Michigan edge defender and Heisman Trophy finalist Aidan Hutchinson.
"At this time last year, the Jags were starting a rebuild under a new coach and ... they're back at the same spot. Urban Meyer didn't even last a full season. I wrote last January that this wasn't going to be a quick fix, and they're not much closer to contending, hence back-to-back No. 1 picks," Kiper wrote. "I do think they have their quarterback, even though Trevor Lawrence had a mostly abysmal rookie season.
"So if the Jaguars get first dibs on any prospect in this draft, I'd go with Hutchinson; I have him ranked slightly ahead of Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux."
Kiper isn't alone in having Hutchinson ranked over Thibodeaux at No. 1. It appears that after a strong 2021 season from Hutchinson that saw him have one of the year's best performances on a grand stage against Ohio State has helped propel Hutchinson in front of Thibodeaux on many mocks.
Hutchinson finished his final season at Michigan with 14 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss, 62 tackles, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, and three pass breakups. He was a key fixture on a top-tier Michigan defense, helping propel the Wolverines to a bout with eventual national champion Georgia in the first round of the College Football Playoffs.
"Hutchinson, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting, is a dominant and consistent pass-rusher who can put up double-digit sacks as a rookie. He's a safe No. 1 pick," Kiper wrote.
"They can play him on the other side of Josh Allen, who is a really nice player. Now, there could be some talk about the Jags taking a left tackle here, but I'm not buying that over the value of having a truly great edge rusher. Yes, left tackle might be more of a "need," but they should take the best prospect, not fill the biggest need."
This would be just the second time the Jaguars have drafted a player at No. 1 overall following the selection of Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 in 2020. The Jaguars have frequently selected defensive linemen in the first round in recent years, taking K'Lavon Chaisson at No. 20 in 2020, Josh Allen at No. 7 in 2019, Taven Bryan at No. 29 in 2018, and Dante Fowler at No. 3 in 2015.
Our View
In terms of positional value, there are no issues with a team like the Jaguars taking a pass-rusher at No. 1 overall. Wide receiver and offensive tackle are potentially more critical and immediate needs, but the Jaguars lack depth and impact players on the edge and that issue showed up time and time again in 2021.
Per TruMedia and PFF, the Jaguars defense finished No. 26 in sacks (32.0), No. 13 in pressure percentage (9.6%), No. 22 in quarterback hits (91), and No. 32 in fumbles forced (2.0). Josh Allen (7.5) and Dawuane Smoot (6.0) combined for 13.5 sacks, but no other Jaguars' defender had more than 3.0. And in terms of edge rushers, the Jaguars' backups (K'Lavon Chaisson, Jihad Ward, Lerentee McCray, Jordan Smith) combined for just three sacks.
The question here is whether Hutchinson is the right pass-rusher. There is legitimate credence to the point that Thibodeaux and Allen may be almost too similar in terms of skill-sets and strengths and weaknesses to want to pair together, and that certainly wouldn't be an issue with Hutchinson.
As opposed to winning with pure athleticism and using explosion and quickness to win in different ways as a pass-rusher, Hutchinson's game relies moreso on his heavy and active hands and his non-stop pursuit. He has a skill set that suggests he can grow as a pass-rusher to best take advantage of his non-traditional tool box, with his final season as Michigan showing dramatic improvement from his past years.
Hutchinson isn't the most flexible pass-rusher, but he is an elite run defender whose motor and hand usage should help him fall into sacks more often than not as he works on the rest of his game. Calling him a safe pick is a fallacy in my eyes because his skill set doesn't exactly suggest he is a safe projection, but there is reason to believe he can be a productive member of a defensive line.
The argument is whether his limited bend and ability to win around the arc will diminish his ceiling. Hutchinson's floor is high enough to warrant consideration here when coupled with the need for a pass-rusher and how valuable it is to hit on one, but there still stands to question whether Hutchinson checks off just enough boxes to be the No. 1 pick.
