The 3 Most Important Games on the Jaguars' Schedule

Which games will make or break the Jaguars' 2024 season?

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson and Houston Texans DeMeco Ryans shake hands midfield after the game of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Houston Texans defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a jam-packed schedule in 2024, which makes it hard to narrow down which of their 17 games might be the most important.

The Jaguars play four playoff teams in the first four weeks alone, which includes a Monday Night Football matchup vs. the Bills in Week 3. Outside of that, they have a full slate of tough AFC South games, two games in London, and a Sunday Night Football game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles.

But when looking at the schedule, a few games pop off as potential make-or-break games in terms of the ultimate goal: making the playoffs and having a chance for a Super Bowl run. With this in mind, here are the three biggest games in our eyes.

Week 4 @ Houston

This feels like the biggest upcoming Jaguars game, at least right now. To start, there are plenty of storylines between these two teams by themselves. The Jaguars/Texans rivalry is perhaps at an all-time high thanks to both teams having a young top draft pick at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud. Each is a young team that made a surprise run at a division crown and a playoff win long before anyone expected them to. And last year, it was the Texans who overtook the Jaguars for the AFC South title.

Quietly the most impactful game on the Jaguars' schedule a year ago was a 37-17 loss to the Texans at home in Week 3. The Jaguars were clear favorites against an injury-ravaged Texans team, but the Jaguars made critical mistakes in all three phases and had one of their worst home losses of the Pederson era. When the Jaguars entered Week 18 in do-or-die mode, it was because of that loss.

“When you take a look at the whole thing, I tried to communicate this with the team: everything is connected. Everything is connected; go back to Week 1 and Week 2, we played the Chiefs in Week 2 and I mentioned to the team how this could have playoff implications. Even in Week 2, then Week 3 you play the Texans. This could have playoff implications for the AFC South," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said a day after the season ended in January.

"You show up here today and it’s like, ‘Oh, that’s what he’s talking about.’ We can’t get to that point; it’s got to be that sense of urgency where everything matters. This is all part of teaching the team to win and preparing to win; focusing in on preparation and doing all those little things that as coaches, we talk a lot to our players about and we can’t just push it aside and say, ‘Hey, we got 12 more games or 15 more games; we still got a three-game lead in the division, it’s okay.’ It’s really not. You can’t let things slide, you can’t let things slip and that sense of urgency is important to the success we have. Especially down the stretch here, when everything began to matter.”

This is more or a less a chance at redemption for the Jaguars for letting the early matchup get away from them. On top of all of this, the Jaguars will also be coming off a three-week stretch where they could reasonably start 0-3 or 1-2 if things break the wrong way. This could define the season early on.

Week 15 vs. New York Jets

It is easy to pick mostly divisional games for this exercise (we will be back to that soon), but this game feels important even within that scope. The Jaguars went 5-6 in non-AFC South games last year, with most of their losses down the stretch coming against teams from outside the division. If the Jaguars were better in games against the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Jaguars could have still made the playoffs despite their skid.

Other games I considered here: Week 3 @ Buffalo, the first London game vs. the Chicago Bears, and the pre-bye Week game vs. the Detroit Lions. I ultimately went with this home game vs. the Jets, though, because I think the AFC's playoff spots are going to come down to the final weeks.

The Jets could push for a division title, or they could be a bit behind the established Miami Dolphins and have to contend for a Wild Card spot. If the Jaguars are behind the Texans in the AFC South, this matchup could be between two teams fighting for the same playoff spot.

Week 18 @ Indianapolis

The last two seasons have each come down to Week 18 for the Jaguars, in each case because of how tight the races for the AFC South have been. No team has run away with the division in several seasons, and there is little reason to think any team does in 2024. The division is tighter at the top then it has been in several seasons due to the trajectory of the Jaguars, Texans, and Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts haven't won the AFC South since 2014, but they came close in 2023. With a healthy year of Anthony Richardson at quarterback, the Colts could push for another shot at a division crown. After facing the Titans in Week 18 in each of the past two seasons, the Jaguars could have another must-win game in Week 18 vs. the Colts.