Trevor, Trades and More: Evaluating All of the Jaguars' Possible Options at No. 1 Overall
To say the Jacksonville Jaguars are entering an offseason of colossal importance would be a drastic undersell, but how else can we describe the gargantuan stakes facing the team slated to pick first overall?
New head coach Urban Meyer has already said what the team will do at quarterback, i.e. who they will likely select with the first pick, will be a defining decision of his life. Considering Meyer's long and successful history as a football coach, that says something.
"Who we pick at that quarterback spot, that’s going to be one of the most important decisions I’ve made in my lifetime, along with the partnership of our owner and our general manager," Meyer said at his introductory press conference on January 15.
"The ones that are out there, my initial study, because I have been studying a lot, I like to use the term elite. I see some elite quarterbacks out there right now.”
For as bad as the Jaguars have been throughout the past plus-decade, the Jaguars went 26 drafts without ever holding the No. 1 overall pick. That is changing in 2021, and the entire trajectory of the Jaguars as a franchise will change with it.
The Jaguars will almost certainly use the top pick on a quarterback, with that quarterback likely to be Clemson's Trevor Lawrence. But just as the Jaguars are set to undergo an entire evaluation and decision-making process, so will we.
Here, we will look at all of the possible options on the table for the Jaguars with the No. 1 overall pick. This isn't to suggest the Jaguars might not take Lawrence or even shouldn't take him, but instead is an exercise to show the options the Jaguars will have to work through in their own process.
With that said, here are all of the possible options the Jaguars have at No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Option No. 1: Pick Trevor Lawrence
The chance of the Jaguars doing the expected thing and picking Trevor Lawrence with the draft's first pick is unquestionably high. The Jaguars trotted out three different quarterbacks in 2020 and have started six quarterbacks since Week 16 in 2018, so the lack of a franchise quarterback has been the defining issue during a miserable stretch of Jaguars football.
Lawrence has been lauded as a future top pick since before he even stepped foot on Clemson's field. He is the rare type of generational prospect who met every single one of the lofty, and frankly unrealistic, expectations set for him entering college. Not many quarterbacks could step in after Deshaun Watson and create a legacy that compares to his, but Lawrence did just that early in his career.
Jacksonville hasn't had a true franchise quarterback for the entirety of the franchise's existence. They have employed good quarterbacks at times, but they've never had a passer who could make an argument as one of the league's 10 best quarterbacks. The hope for the Jaguars would be that Lawrence could change that instantly.
"But what’s evaded the history of the Jags, really, has been a franchise quarterback. And I think what’s unique, certainly, is that we have the ability now to make a choice and it’s going to define the franchise moving forward," Jaguars owner Shad Khan said on January 4.
All in all, Lawrence is the type of transcendent quarterback prospect that a quarterback-starved team like the Jaguars should be expected to hitch their wagon to without hesitation. This doesn't even factor in how much his presence would boost the Jaguars' image and relevancy on a national scale, which is a factor that shouldn't be ignored.
This is really as simple as Lawrence is the best quarterback in the draft. If he wasn't a special prospect, then it is unlikely Meyer would even be Jacksonville's coach right now. For all of these reasons, Lawrence should be expected to be the Jaguars' pick in April.
Option No. 2: Trade the No. 1 pick for a massive haul of draft picks + starters
This is hard to foresee the Jaguars even seriously considering, but let's work the idea out anyway. Like any team that holds the top pick in any particular year, the Jaguars will undoubtedly be asked about their interest in dealing the pick for a massive trade packing.
Since 1970, there have been just 10 instances of the top pick being dealt. The most recent example is when the Los Angeles Rams traded up for the right to select Jared Goff in 2016, but other examples are Eli Manning/New York Giants in 2004 (we are counting this on a technicality!), Michael Vick/Atlanta Falcons in 2001, and Orlando Pace/St. Louis Rams in 1997.
Since those last three examples are so long ago that they essentially happened in different leagues entirely, we can look at the compensation the Tennessee Titans got from the Rams when they moved up for Goff. To move from No. 15 to No. 1, the Rams traded a first-round pick (2016), two second-round picks (2016), a third-round pick (2016), a first-round pick (2017) and another third-round pick (2017).
Another example could be the Washington Football Team traded away three first-round picks and a second-round pick to the Rams in 2012 when they moved up from No. 6 overall to pick Robert Griffin III.
Considering how much Jacksonville's roster is lacking on both sides of the ball, any expected compensation for the top pick should also likely come with some starting players on either offense or defense.
All in all, the Jaguars would be able to get a massive haul for the top pick considering Lawrence's talent and reputation as an elite prospect. But if the Jaguars and other NFL teams grade Lawrence that highly, then the Jaguars would simply be better off just taking him and not the picks. They have 11 picks anyway, and it isn't like their 12 picks from the year before prevented them from a 1-15 season. The quarterback is more important than any potential package of picks.
Option No. 3: Select a quarterback not named Trevor Lawrence
There is always a chance -- no matter how remote -- that the Jaguars and Meyer could opt to pick a quarterback who isn't named Trevor Lawrence. This would be a shock of epic proportions, but there are at least three other quarterbacks who have been rumored to be potential top-five selections in BYU's Zach Wilson, Ohio State's Justin Fields, and North Dakota State's Trey Lance.
"You see Trevor, you see Justin, you see Zach. As Shad said, this is a monumental moment for this franchise. We’ve seen some franchises explode and we’ve seen others fail," Meyer said at his introductory press conference.
"I’ve said this many times throughout my career is that when the NFL says it’s a quarterback league, I would say ‘well so is college and so is high school, so is Pop Warner.’ It’s a quarterback sport, so whoever takes that snap, we have got to be right on."
What are the odds the Jaguars actually opt for any quarterback who isn't Lawrence, though? If Meyer was willing to be a head coach for any quarterback in the draft, would he have had as much interest in the Jaguars' job? The logical answer is no. Logic says that Meyer is largely Jacksonville's coach because of their ability to pick Lawrence, which would counter the idea of the Jaguars taking any non-Lawrence quarterback.
Expect for the Jaguars to be tied to Fields for the entirety of the draft due to his and Meyer's shared Ohio State connection. With that said, we went into detail here about why there may not be as strong of a connection between them as some people would like to believe. After him, it is hard to believe the Jaguars would take Wilson or Lance No. 1 considering the smaller degree of competition each faced in college.
Option No. 4: Select a non-quarterback
The most unlikely of all the scenarios. If the Jaguars, who had the NFL's worst quarterback situation in 2020, opt to pick any position other than quarterback with the top pick, it would be one of the most surprising moves in recent draft memory.
With that said, there are a few players the Jaguars could look at if they wanted to get extremely unconventional. The two main names would be Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell or Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith, though neither would make any sense for the Jaguars to pick over a quarterback.
The Jaguars have a need at left tackle, but who exactly is playing quarterback for the Jaguars in this scenario? A blindside protector is important, but nowhere near as important as finding a starting quarterback.
Meanwhile, Smith had an incredible college career and is a terrific prospect, but he isn't the type of receiver that most would peg as a No. 1 overall pick. He isn't Calvin Johnson in terms of physical tools and simply isn't worth considering picking at No. 1 overall, let alone over a quarterback.
