Weighing the Options: Do the Jaguars Make Sense as a Landing Spot for Jameis Winston?
The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't exactly been a team known for its steadiness at quarterback as of late.
Between Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler, Nick Foles, and Gardner Minshew II, the Jaguars have started four quarterbacks over the last 32 games, all for different reasons. Whether it was Bortles being benched after poor play shortly after he signed an extension, or Foles losing his job to Minshew in Week 13 last season, the Jaguars have had somewhat of a revolving door at the position.
But with last week's trade that sent Foles to the Chicago Bears in exchange for a 2020 fourth-round selection, it appeared as if the Jaguars had created some clarity at the position and would roll with Minshew as the starter in 2020, with the hope that he will take a big step forward in his development in his second season.
But despite that, the Jaguars have continued to be floated by media and oddsmakers as a possible landing spot for free agent quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston, a former No. 1 overall pick, just spent five seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before being replaced last week by Tom Brady.
The reason many have for a Winston and Jaguars connection is the fact that Minshew, a sixth-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, has yet to prove himself an established starter despite his impressive rookie season. But does that alone mean the Jaguars should consider signing Winston?
In short, no. Winston certainly offers a few qualities that Minshew doesn't, but the Jaguars would be wise to let another team roll the dice on the 26-year-old passer.
Winston has had a rollercoaster career, with epic highs and similarly drastic epic lows. His peaks have been higher than the peaks Minshew displayed last year, but his valleys have been categorically lower. For a team like the Jaguars, who have a small margin of error next season, is taking a flier on Winston for the 2020 season really the best option?
Last season, Winston completed 60.7% of his passes for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the league at creating explosive plays and converting red-zone trips into touchdowns, with the Buccaneers turning 64.81% of their red-zone opportunities into six or seven points, the third-best mark in the NFL.
By comparison, the Jaguars were 31st in the NFL in the same category, turning only 40.43% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. In terms of pushing the ball down the field and creating scoring opportunities, there is a strong argument to make for Winston being a better option than Minshew if you consider their 2019 performances in a vacuum.
Winston recorded a career-high 8.2 yards per pass attempt last season, while Minshew recorded 7.0 yards per pass attempt, reflecting Winston's superior ability to create yardage in 2019.
But despite this, and Winston's track record of creating offense (121 career touchdown passes), the Jaguars should still avoid pursuing Winston for a few key factors.
For starters, Winston's turnover rate is considerably higher than Minshew's was as a rookie. While Minshew dealt with the turnover bug in his first eight games as a starter, he cleaned these issues up in his final four starts, turning the ball over once in the last four games of the season.
Last year, Winston threw 30 interceptions in 16 starts, leading the NFL in 2019 and tying the mark for the seventh-most interceptions thrown in a single season in NFL history. Winston also fumbled 12 times, losing five of the fumbles. This gives him 35 turnovers all by himself in 2019, an astronomical number that could have been even higher.
How does this compare to Minshew's 2019 season? He threw six interceptions in 14 games (12 starts) while fumbling 13 times and losing seven fumbles. This gives Minshew 13 turnovers in 14 games -- numbers that aren't overly positive, but those that are still dwarfed by Winston's own turnover issues.
Winston's turnover issues aren't limited to only 2019 alone. In his career, he has thrown 88 interceptions and fumbled the ball 50 times, with 23 of those fumbles being lost. This gives him 111 turnovers in 72 career games, an average of 1.54 turnovers per game in his NFL career.
For a Jaguars team that is in a win-now mode in 2020 and can't afford to continue to cough up the ball to the other team, Winston doesn't make much sense. If the Jaguars' brass had more breathing room and margin of error this would be a different situation, but it isn't. Minshew is the safer quarterback presently and moving forward, and he showed enough in 2020 for the Jaguars to believe he can be a playmaker as well.
But this isn't the only reason the Jaguars should avoid pursuing Winston. While his talent is tantalizing, he doesn't make any financial sense for the Jaguars unless he is willing to take a short-term, team-friendly deal.
According to Spotrac, the Jaguars have $13,956,948 in available cap space, and the vast majority of this will have to be set aside for the team's 2020 draft class. The Jaguars could free up a few million in cap space here and there, but enough to sign Winston? Unlikely.
Due to his youth, draft pedigree, and ability to put points up on the scoreboard, Winston will likely be seeking a deal that would stretch the Jaguars' far beyond their means. By comparison, Minshew is only on the books for a meager $722,721 cap hit in 2020.
Overall, Winston and the Jaguars don't make much sense as a fit for a number of reasons. Minshew is the cheaper and safer option, and the Jaguars have already shown how much they are willing to stand beside him while he develops by trading Foles one year after they gave him a four-year, $88 million contract.
Winston deserves to start somewhere in 2020, but his fit with the Jaguars is too much like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, no matter the uncertainty at the Jaguars' position.
