What Do the Numbers Say the Jaguars’ Offense Needs to Improve After Its Quarterback Change?
Nine games into the 2019 NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense is about to go through a change at the most important position in the game.
Head coach Doug Marrone announced Tuesday that veteran quarterback Nick Foles would take rookie Gardner Minshew II’s place in leading the offense. This move has opened the door to see what Jacksonville’s offensive scheme under offensive coordinator John DeFilippo may have looked like all along if Foles had never gotten hurt in Week 1.
Since Foles went down with a clavicle injury on the 11th offensive play of the season against the Kansan City Chiefs, the Jaguars’ offense has instead had to morph around the skillset of Minshew. The sixth-round passer had his ups and downs at the helm of the offense but lead the team to good offensive days vs. the Denver Broncos (26 points), Carolina Panthers (27 points), and the New York Jets (29 points).
But while the offense had flashes of brilliance and popped off explosive plays often, it also had its off days. This included games against the New Orleans Saints (six points), and the Houston Texans (three points), where Jacksonville did not score a single touchdown.
During Minshew’s 4-4 run as the starter, Jacksonville’s offense ranked 23rd in the NFL in points (19.6 per game). Overall, the Jaguars’ offense showed both positives and negatives but it simply did not score enough points and this likely played a large role in Marrone’s decision.
So with Foles officially back under center, what are the areas of the offense that has to improve as the Jaguars hope to improve upon their 4-5 record over the final seven games of the season? We used statistics from Football Outsiders’ 2019 offensive drive stats to give context on just what needs to change for the better under Foles.
Jaguars' offensive rankings through nine games:
Jacksonville has had 102 offensive possessions through nine games, which is 11 more than the league average. In those 102 possessions, Jacksonville has gained 32.09 yards per drive, which is 17th best in the NFL per Football Outsiders.
The average NFL offense has gained 32.23 yards per drive, so Jacksonville falls right around the league average. But in terms of the pivotal AFC South race, slightly below average will make it hard to stand out.
To put this in perspective, the Houston Texans have averaged 37.31 yards in their 97 possessions. The Indianapolis Colts have averaged 37.07 yards in their 78 possessions, respectively. When it comes to the teams Jacksonville trails in the AFC South, the Jaguars have fallen behind the pack in terms of ability to rack up yards and extend drives.
One of Jacksonville’s primary issues on offense this season has been stringing together long drives. Too often the offense has been feast or famine. Either it is going to create big plays and drive down the field or it has been forced to punt quickly.
One good illustration of this issue is the Football Outsiders’ metric of three and outs per drive. The Jaguars’ are averaging 0.235 three and outs per drive, which ranks 25th in the NFL. The league average is 0.204.
This means the Jaguars’ offense has been among the highest offenses in terms of three and outs produced. When Foles steps into the lineup, it will be paramount that he is able to both elongate drives with early first downs while also picking up yards and moving down the field.
But while yards is a solid indicator of how well an offense can sustain drives, the metric is not what decides wins and losses on Sundays. Points are. And when it comes to getting on the scoreboard, Jacksonville’s offense has struggled even more, according to Football Outsiders’ data.
In terms of points per drive, the Jaguars’ offense has averaged 1.66 points per possession, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The NFL average is 1.99 points per drive, for context. Once again, the Texans (2.49 points per drive, 4th best) and Colts (2.28 points per drive, 10th best) reign supreme over the Jaguars’ offense.
But the data shows one glaring reason why the Jaguars’ offense is so low: they kick too many field goals.
The Jaguars’ field goal unit has been amongst the best in the NFL, with only one missed point after attempt and one failed field goal attempt, the latter of which was due to a bad snap and not due to any kicking issues. But too many times Jacksonville has had to settle for three points instead of six.
The Jaguars have averaged 0.147 touchdowns per drive according to Football Outsiders, which ranks near the bottom of the league at 28th in the NFL. For context, the league average is 0.216 touchdowns per drive.
But field goals per drive? The Jaguars have excelled. They have kicked 0.216 field goals per drive, ranked 3rd best in the entire NFL, and a good bit higher than the 0.144 league average.
The largest reason for this discrepancy is due to a poor red-zone offense. Too many times Jacksonville will get in between the opponents 20-yard lines but fail to finish. This will be Foles’ largest test when he steps back into the offense, and how much the offense does or doesn’t improve in this area compared to its time with Minshew will be telling.
For context on just how poor Jacksonville has been in the red-zone this season, look at the team’s points per red-zone appearance and touchdowns per red-zone appearance figures.
According to Football Outsiders, Jacksonville is only scoring 4.10 points per red-zone appearance, which ranks in the bottom five in the entire league at 28th in the NFL. For context, the league average is 4.78 points per red-zone appearance, something Jacksonville is not yet even close to.
It gets even worse when you look at touchdowns per red-zone appearance. Jacksonville is ahead of only the Cincinnati Bengals in this figure, scoring 0.345 touchdowns per each red-zone appearance, according to Football Outsiders. The league average is 0.555, so again Jacksonville has miles to go before it is even average in this area.
The Jaguars’ offense of the first nine games of the season did a lot of things well with Minshew at the helm. It created explosive plays and more often than not was an entertaining unit to watch grow each week. But the numbers don’t lie: the offense needs to be better.
As the team enters their Week 10 bye at 4-5, fixing the red-zone and scoring issues will be the team’s most pressing task. The hope is that Foles will be the man to flip that switch. We will find out over the next seven games if that will be the case, or if the offense will continue to struggle.
