Where Preseason Predictions Were Right — and Wrong — for Jaguars’ First 10 Games
The first-half of the Jacksonville Jaguars' season has come to a close and, well, it has been a weird one.
The Jaguars sit at 3-7 and in third-place in the AFC South, ahead of only the one-win Houston Texans, whose lone win came against the Jaguars.
3-7 is never where a team wants to be after 10 games, but the Jaguars entered this season with long odds and low expectations considering they picked No. 1 overall last year and are in the first year of Doug Pederson's regime.
But with other formerly struggling teams like the New York Giants and New York Jets being in similar situations this year and still producing wins, it is worth taking a look back at what our preseason expectations were for the Jaguars.
Where they right? Were they wrong? Have the Jaguars underachieved, overachieved or been exactly where they were supposed to be? We take a look at our preseason predictions and evaluate below.
Week 1 result: Jaguars lose 28-22 to Washington Commanders (0-1)
Week 1 preseason prediction: Jaguars lose to Washington Commanders (0-1)
In hindsight, this is one of the most frustrating games the Jaguars lost all year. We projected them to lose on the road to a tough Washington team, but the Jaguars letting Carson Wentz throw four touchdowns vs. them when he has had the year he's had is baffling in retrospect.
Week 2 result: Jaguars win 24-0 vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
Week 2 preseason prediction: Jaguars defeat Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
There was no way the Colts were ever going to beat the Jaguars in Week 2. They made way too much emphasis on the game before the season to ever give themselves a shot.
Week 3 result: Jaguars win 38-10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
Week 3 preseason prediction: Jaguars lose to Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)
This was the shock of the season for the Jaguars. The Chargers were injured a good deal entering this game, but it was still a statement win at the time and a game many thought would reflect the moment the Jaguars had arrived. It turns out to be one of the last wins the Jaguars have seen.
Week 4 result: Jaguars lose 29-21 to Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
Week 4 preseason prediction: Jaguars lose to Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)
The Jaguars never looked like they were a better team than the Eagles on paper, but this is one game the Jaguars really lost themselves. Five turnovers from Trevor Lawrence in a one-score game is a special kind of missed opportunity.
Week 5 result: Jaguars lose 13-6 to Houston Texans (2-3)
Week 5 preseason prediction: Jaguars defeat Houston Texans (2-3)
The Jaguars can look back at Week 5 as the week their season began to spiral. The most winnable loss of the season, the Jaguars outplayed the Texans for four quarters and produced over 400 yards of offense, but turnovers in the red-zone and missed opportunities led to the worst loss of the season.
Week 6 result: Jaguars lose 34-27 to Indianapolis Colts (2-4)
Week 6 preseason prediction: Jaguars lose to Indianapolis Colts (2-4)
The Jaguars never beat Frank Reich in Indianapolis, but this is another game the Jaguars never should have lost. Matt Ryan looked like he found the fountain of youth and put up 34 points just two weeks before being benched for Sam Ehlinger.
Week 7 result: Jaguars lose 23-17 to New York Giants (2-5)
Week 7 preseason prediction: Jaguars defeat New York Giants (3-4)
Another game the Jaguars should have won but lost due to self-inflicted mistakes, this game looked like one of the most winnable on the preseason schedule. The Giants are better than anyone predicted they would be, but the Jaguars were the better team when the two sides played in Week 7.
Week 8 result: Jaguars lose 21-17 to Denver Broncos (2-6)
Week 8 preseason prediction: Jaguars lose to Denver Broncos (3-5)
I was not high on the Broncos entering the season, but I did think their defense would give the Jaguars' offense enough fits to frustrate them in London. With that said, I never expected for Russell Wilson and the Broncos' offense to be this bad. This is one of the worst losses of the season.
Week 9 result: Jaguars win 27-20 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (3-6)
Week 9 preseason prediction: Jaguars lose to Las Vegas Raiders (3-6)
In hindsight, I way overestimated the Raiders. I picked the Raiders to win days before this game, too, and was wrong. I saw the Raiders as solid but unlucky like the Jaguars, where they are better described as just bad.
Week 10 result: Jaguars lose 27-17 to Kansas City Chiefs (3-7)
Week 10 preseason prediction: Jaguars lose to Kansas City Chiefs (3-7)
The Jaguars were never going to be predicted to win this game, but that doesn't make this loss any better. The Chiefs lost to a worse team in the Colts earlier in the year, so there was precedence for an upset. And with three turnovers and an onside kick the Jaguars had a chance to make that upset a reality, but they scored just seven points out of the four momentum-shifting plays.
In conclusion, we had the Jaguars pegged at 3-7 through 10 games. We missed on a few games, like the Chargers, Texans, and Raiders, but the Jaguars have more or less looked the exact way we all thought they would record-wise. The issue is the near-wins, turning 2022 into a season of regret.
