Which Concerning Trend Will the Jaguars’ New Offensive Scheme Have to Reverse?
Archaic. Obsolete. Primitive. Use any of these words or similar ones you want, and you will have described the Jacksonville Jaguars' offensive scheme in recent seasons, specifically as it pertains to pre-snap motions and shifts.
Whether it was the 2017 playoff offense that asked Blake Bortles to hand it off as much as possible, the 2018 disaster of an offense led by Nathaniel Hackett, Bortles and Cody Kessler, or the 2019 offense orchestrated by John DeFilippo, the Jaguars have continued to fall behind the rest of the NFL when it comes to mixing things up before the play.
According to Ben Linsey of Pro Football Focus, the Jaguars used pre-snap motions or shifts at the lowest rate of all teams in 2019. Jacksonville also had only the fourth-highest success rate on plays with a motion or a shift, only better than Washington, Pittsburgh, and the New York Jets.
The leading teams in motion and shifts before the ball is snapped? Only San Francisco, Baltimore, New England, Kansas City, and Tennessee -- all playoff teams and some of these were the top offenses in the league. Of course, correlation does not always imply causation, but it shows a deeper point.
Teams around the league are utilizing as much motion and shifts as possible before the snap, and it isn't just window dressing. By doing so, offenses can gain a leg up on defenses before defenders even have a chance to counter. It can give offenses numbers advantages to the strength side, as well as provide advantageous blocking angles at the point of attack for tight ends, H-backs, and others.
Motions and shifts can also slow down a defense in terms of mixing up their reads and causing defenders to readjust their plan of attack. Even if a motion isn't a big part of a play, it causes a defender to think for at least one extra second.
Despite the advantages motions and shifts can provide, and despite the success of offenses who utilize them at a high rate, the Jaguars have yet to change with the times and play forward-thinking football on offense.
Graham Barfield of NFL.com tweeted a striking indictment on the Jaguars in this regard. According to data from PFF, the Jaguars have ranked last in pre-snap motions and shifts in each of the last three years, with only 25% in 2019. By comparison, the 49ers used motion or shifts on 79% of plays.
The hope for the Jaguars is new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden can reverse this trend and help Jacksonville's offense gain advantages in a way they simply have refused to attempt to in recent years.
According to the same PFF data, Gruden's 2017 offense in Washington ranked 17th in motion and shift rate and 14th in 2018. He doesn't move players around before the snap as much as Kyle Shanahan, but he certainly uses it more than Hackett and DeFilippo did in Jacksonville.
If the Jaguars' offense wants to improve from being ranked 26th in points, it will need to use every advantage at their disposal. By keeping their offensive creativity at a minimum in recent years, they actively made the end goal harder to obtain. In the Gruden era, this is a trend that will need to reverse quickly.
Think Jay Gruden will help the Jaguars turn this trend around? Let us know in the comments below!
