Jets-Dolphins Predictions: Could Darnold's Return, Tua's Injury Lead to Jets First Win?

Last time the winless Jets faced off with the Dolphins, Miami dominated all facets of the game in a 24-0 shutout.

It's hard to believe, but that was already six weeks ago.

Now, New York will have starting quarterback Sam Darnold back under center, as well as a healthier group of skill players on offense. Mix that in with the fact that Miami's rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is expected to miss Sunday's showdown due to injury. 

Perhaps the Jets can bounce back on their home turf in this AFC East rematch and finally secure their first win of the season.

That cautious optimism has been an unwavering trend for Jets fans this year. It's grown especially over New York's last two defeats—both one possession losses to the Patriots and Chargers—as this team has proven it's not going down without a fight. 

Nonetheless, New York has started the season with a franchise-worst 10-game losing streak.

So, could this really be the week the Jets finally find a way to win? Or will this franchise take another step closer to the No. 1 overall pick of next spring's draft with just over one month remaining in the regular season?

While you're getting set for kickoff Sunday morning, here's our weekly prediction as to how this game will play out for those in green and white:

Max Goodman's pick: Jets 16, Dolphins 24 

PREVIOUS PREDICTION: Jets nearly secure first victory over Chargers

I think this game has the potential to come down to the wire, as has been the case in New York's two previous losses. Even if the Jets can hold their own, however, here's why I'm hesitant to pick them again this week.

Tua isn't available for the Dolphins, but it wasn't like Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled mightily against New York his last time out. In Week 6, the veteran threw for 191 yards with three scores and two picks. A decent game, but he's shown early on this season that he's still able to throw for 300-plus yards any given week.

With that in mind, think about all the defenders for the Jets that played against Miami last time and won't be there on Sunday. Avery Williamson and Steve McLendon have since been traded. Bless Austin, Brian Poole, Kyle Phillips and Bradley McDougald are all on injured reserve. Oh, and New York released Pierre Desir not too long ago. 

That's over half of this team's starting 11 on defense from six weeks ago. I think the rookies in the secondary—like Bryce Hall and Ashtyn Davis—can continue to improve this week, but I'm just not quite sure they're ready to shut a talented offense down just yet. 

Hey, maybe they can prove me wrong! It's certainly possible, especially if Quinnen Williams and those up front can keep getting into the backfield and hold down opponent's run games. It's hard to forget what Justin Herbert did to this team's secondary last week, though...

Further, I think Darnold will have some rust to shake off early. Even with Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman all at his disposal for the first time this year, it might take a few series for them to find a rhythm. 

Considering Darnold's struggles against Miami in his career—one win in four games with eight total interceptions—the Dolphins' secondary could take advantage of a familiar foe in his first game back from injury.

That doesn't mean Darnold won't have a good game. I bet he'll have over 200 yards passing and a touchdown (something he hasn't done since Week 1 against Buffalo).

Miami's defense allows the fourth-lowest average points per game (20.2) in the NFL. The Jets have scored 27 and 28 in their last two weeks, but it might take the same (if not more) to get a win on Sunday. That is, again, if their inexperienced defenders can step up. 

Related reading to get you ready for Jets-Dolphins:

• Jets' Sam Darnold Can Start the Next Stage of His NFL Career on Sunday
• How the Jets Have Been Preparing to Face Both of the Miami Dolphins' Quarterbacks

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