Odds Lions Beat Commanders in Week 2
It's back-to-back NFC East matchups for the Detroit Lions to kick off the 2022 campaign.
After suffering a tough 38-35 defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, they'll face off with the Washington Commanders Sunday.
The Commanders are coming off a 28-22 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars in their season opener. It was a contest in which new Washington signal-caller Carson Wentz threw for four touchdowns, but also tossed two picks and finished with an underwhelming 47.8 QBR.
Wentz shouldn't be the individual that the Lions have to place their biggest focus on, however. Instead, it should be Commanders lead back Antonio Gibson.
Although he rushed for only 58 yards a week ago, he could still be a handful for Detroit's porous rush defense Sunday.
Remember, the Lions allowed Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Miles Sanders to each rush for at least 90 yards in the season opener. Hurts gained 5.3 yards a carry on his 17 rushing attempts, and Sanders accumulated 7.4 yards yards per carry on his 13 touches. Each runner also finished with a touchdown against Aaron Glenn's defense.
Meanwhile, both Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott also added a rushing score in the Week 1 contest.
Subsequently, going into its Week 2 affair with the Commanders, Detroit is ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed (216) and dead last in rushing TDs permitted (four).
Something has to change for Glenn & Co. from a rush defense standpoint -- and quickly -- if they intend on having a more competitive season than a year ago.
Without resolving its gap control and run defense woes, Detroit could be in for a long day trying to stop Gibson.
While perhaps not as gifted of a runner or as big of a game-changing presence as both Hurts and Sanders, Gibson is still more than a proven commodity as an NFL back.
He recorded a 1,000-yard rushing campaign in 2021, and has rushed for a decent 4.3 yards a carry since entering the league in 2020.
Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports
Lions linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard realizes just how legit of a back that Gibson is.
"The offense damn near goes through him," Sheppard said. "This kid is a legit player. Now, I don’t know why he doesn’t get promoted in the national spotlight, but this Gibson, this (No.) 24, he’s a real dude, man. They do a good job with the schematics of marrying what he does well. He’s an excellent zone runner, that’s the scheme that they do. They’re going to try and stretch you out, and if he can put his foot in the ground and get vertical, it’s a problem. So, it starts there with stopping the run."
While Detroit has a problem at stopping the run, it surely doesn't with running the football.
Spearhead by D'Andre Swift, the Lions boast the fifth-most rushing yards (181), the second-most rushing touchdowns (three) and the fourth-best yards per carry average (6.5).
Meanwhile, the Commanders rank 30th in yards per carry allowed (6.8).
Running the football is the most efficient way for the Lions to win football games this year, plus the easiest way to carve up the Commanders' defense presently.
It bodes well for Detroit's chances of securing the Week 2 victory.
At this juncture, I'm willing to give the Lions a 70 percent chance of pulling out the win over the Commanders.
