100 Days Until Kickoff: Six Reasons Why Packers Will Fall Short Again

The Green Bay Packers once again will field a championship-caliber roster. But there are several reasons why they will be locked out of the Super Bowl for a 12th consecutive season.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Jun 3, 2022 2:44 PM EDT
Original:
Jun 3, 2022

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will kick off the 2022 NFL season in exactly 100 days.

As has been the case for most of the last three decades, they will enter the season on the short list of legitimate Super Bowl contenders. At SI Sportsbook, only three teams have shorter odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Aaron Rodgers, the two-time defending MVP, is the main reason to be bullish. But he’s not the only reason.

Coach Matt LaFleur is the only coach in NFL history to lead his team to three consecutive seasons of 13-plus wins. With Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, the running backs are elite. With a healthy Jaire Alexander and the addition of first-round picks Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt, the defense should be powerful. Led by esteemed coordinator Rich Bisaccia, the special teams can’t possibly be worse.

Still, there are some real reasons for concern.

1. The Receivers, Obviously

The development of the receiver corps will be one of the biggest story lines of training camp, not just in Green Bay but league-wide. The trade of Davante Adams created an enormous void in the offense. Adams caught 123 passes with four drops last season. Every other receiver on the Packers’ roster grabbed 109 with nine drops. In the playoff loss to San Francisco, Adams caught nine passes and everyone else caught one.

Was the passing attack too Adams-centric? At times, sure, but obviously you’d rather have Adams than not.

Can Allen Lazard provide more to the offense, or will he suffer without Adams capturing so much of the defense’s attention? Can Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, in particular, be instant-impact rookies? Can Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb turn back the clock to be reliable contributors? Can Amari Rodgers live up to his third-round billing after barely playing on offense as a rookie?

Ultimately, this is the biggest question: On third-and-6 in the waning moments of a big game, with the defense sending the house at Rodgers, can the first or second read on a play get open before the pass rush arrives?

2. Under Pressure

That third-and-6 question is hugely important. Here’s why: For all of Rodgers’ brilliance last season, he was terrible when under pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, 31 quarterbacks were pressured on at least 130 dropbacks. In that group, Rodgers ranked 29th in completion percentage (39.5) and 18th in passer rating (68.9). Those stand in stark contrast to his clean-pocket marks of a 76.9 percent completion rate and 122.2 passer rating.

Because Adams generally got open, Rodgers didn’t face much pressure. With the uncertainty at receiver, Rodgers could face more pressure this season. He must play better in those situations.

3. ACLs

Three of the team’s top players, left tackle David Bakhtiari, dominant offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins and productive tight end Robert Tonyan, are coming back from torn ACLs.

The plight of Bakhtiari was a cold reminder that nothing is guaranteed, no matter how many players successfully make it back from what used to be a career death sentence.

Bakhtiari suffered his injury on Dec. 31, 2020. He played 27 snaps against Detroit on Jan. 9, 2022, was inactive for the playoff game two weeks later and isn’t participating in the offseason practices. He’ll turn 31 in September.

Perhaps, as former coach Mike McCarthy would have said, the Packers are “taking the high side of caution” with Bakhtiari given his importance to the roster. Bakhtiari is a stud player who was on a Hall of Fame trajectory before the injury. He plays a hugely important position. His cap number in 2023 would rank 13th among quarterbacks. That LaFleur said Bakhtiari “hopefully” will be ready for the start of training camp seems a little worrisome.

4. Offensive Coaching Changes

The past two seasons, Green Bay ranked third in scoring, first in net yards per passing attempt, ninth in yards per rushing attempt, first in giveaways and first in time of possession. Obviously, LaFleur and Rodgers had a big hand in that. So, too, did Nathaniel Hackett, the popular offensive coordinator who is Denver’s new head coach, and Luke Getsy, the quarterbacks coach who is Chicago’s new offensive coordinator.

Maybe the offense will be just fine with Adam Stenavich promoted to offensive coordinator, Luke Butkus replacing Stenavich as offensive line coach and Tom Clements returning as quarterbacks coach. New ideas can be good ideas. Or, the offense could suffer without Hackett’s energy and creativity.

5. Potential Depth Issues

At outside linebacker, the Packers used a fifth-round pick on Kingsley Enagbare but there is no proven depth behind the starting tandem of Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. Gary and Smith are tremendous but they can’t play every snap and they’re not impervious to injury.

At safety, there is no proven depth behind Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage. With Amos absent for Tuesday’s practice, Shawn Davis moved in with the No. 1s. A fifth-round pick by Indianapolis last year, Davis joined the Packers’ practice squad in September. His professional resume? Zero snaps on defense and nine on special teams.

At cornerback, Keisean Nixon stands as the primary backup. In three seasons, he’s played 273 snaps on defense and broken up one pass.

As usual, the Packers drafted three offensive linemen but Lucas Patrick and Billy Turner were proven, versatile players.

6. Campbell and Douglas

No, De’Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas aren’t reasons to worry. Quite the opposite. But it is fair to wonder if Campbell (an All-Pro) and Douglas (career-high five interceptions) will be able to replicate their career seasons.

Rather, from a big-picture perspective, here is the concern: General manager Brian Gutekunst found star players on the bargain rack. Campbell was unemployed through almost two months of free agency before signing with Green Bay. He’s one of the all-time great June signings. Douglas went from Arizona’s practice squad to lockdown cornerback.

Those signings don’t happen every year. For some general managers, they might not happen ever.

And yet, the Packers were one-and-done in the playoffs. If you can’t make it to the Super Bowl with an MVP quarterback, superstar receiver and two of the great additions imaginable helping gain the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage, how are you ever going to win a championship?