Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love (Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images)

12 Days Until Training Camp: Replacing No. 12

What will life look like with Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers. Based on the NFL's all-time leaders in touchdown passes, here's what history says.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Jul 14, 2023 2:09 PM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – In case you hadn’t heard, the Green Bay Packers traded Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets and anointed Jordan Love the new starting quarterback.

It’s hard to replace a legend, though Rodgers made it look relatively easy when he replaced Brett Favre. While the Packers went 6-10 in Rodgers’ first season as the starter in 2008, they won the Super Bowl in 2010 and advanced to NFC Championship Games in 2014, 2016, 2019 and 2020.

How will the Packers fare under Love? Here’s what history suggests with the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL history based on touchdown passes and how the team fared with his replacement.

Tom Brady, Patriots

Who was more important to the Patriots’ reign of success, Tom Brady or Bill Belichick? In the three seasons without Brady, the Patriots went 7-9 with Cam Newton in 2020, 10-7 and one-and-done in the playoffs with Mac Jones in 2021 and 8-9 with Jones in 2022. Jones has thrown 36 touchdowns in 31 games; Brady threw 40 in Year 1 in Tampa Bay en route to another Super Bowl win. Year 1 difference in wins: 5 fewer.

Drew Brees, Saints

The Saints only won one Super Bowl with Drew Brees (2009) but were perennial contenders. They won four consecutive NFC South titles with Brees from 2017 through 2020. With Jameis Winston in 2021, they went 9-8. With Andy Dalton in 2022, they went 7-10. They fell short of the playoffs both seasons. Year 1 difference in wins: 3 fewer.

Peyton Manning, Colts

From 2002 through 2010, the Colts reached the playoffs in each of Peyton Manning’s final nine seasons. That includes a Super Bowl win in 2006 and a Super Bowl loss in 2009. With Matt Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins starting games in 2011, the Colts went 2-14. It was a quick rebound, as the “Suck for Luck” Colts drafted Andrew Luck in 2012. Year 1 difference in wins: 8 fewer.

Peyton Manning, Broncos

In Peyton Manning’s four years in Denver, the Broncos won 50 regular-season games and a Super Bowl. In the seven seasons since his retirement, they’ve won 44 games and failed to reach the playoffs behind the likes of Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater and Russell Wilson. Year 1 difference in wins: 3 fewer.

Brett Favre, Packers

Favre won three NFL MVPs and led the Packers to their first Super Bowl championship in three decades. Basically, he resurrected a franchise and set the stage for all the success to follow. No way Aaron Rodgers could follow in Favre’s legendary footsteps. Well, Rodgers won four MVPs and a Super Bowl. However, in Year 1, the Packers went from 13-3 to 6-10. Year 1 difference in wins: 7 fewer.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers

When Aaron Rodgers replaced Brett Favre, he had thrown 59 career pass attempts and never started a game in three seasons. Jordan Love is poised to replace Rodgers. With 83 attempts and one start in three seasons, he’s a grizzled veteran by comparison. Year 1 difference in wins: TBA.

Philip Rivers, Chargers

Philip Rivers is one of the great quarterbacks in NFL history who enjoyed no real team success. In 14 seasons as the starter, he played in only one conference championship game and missed the playoffs in five of his final six season. After going 5-11 in 2019, the Chargers drafted Justin Herbert. In three seasons, they’re 26-24 in the regular season and 0-1 in the playoffs. Year 1 difference in wins: 2 more.

Dan Marino, Dolphins

Dan Marino was drafted in the first round in 1983 and led the Dolphins to the Super Bowl in 1984 and the AFC Championship Game in 1985. He went 5-7 in the playoffs the rest of his career, capped by a 62-7 loss to Jacksonville in the 1999 divisional round in his final game. Journeyman Jay Fielder stepped in and led the Dolphins to four consecutive winning seasons but they haven’t won a playoff game since 2000. Year 1 difference in wins: 2 more.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

First-round pick Kenny Pickett stepped in for Ben Roethlisberger and threw more touchdowns (seven) than interceptions (nine) in 12 starts. Pittsburgh went from 9-7-1 in 2021 to 9-8 in 2022. Year 1 difference in wins: 0.

Matt Ryan, Falcons

The Falcons went 7-10 with a past-his-prime Matt Ryan in 2021 and 7-10 with the combo of Marcus Mariota and rookie third-round pick Desmond Ridder in 2022. Ridder is penciled in as the starter in 2023 after throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions in four starts. Year 1 difference in wins: 0.

Eli Manning, Giants

Eli Manning stunned the Packers at Lambeau in the 2007 and 2011 playoffs on the way to winning Super Bowls. After winning that second Super Bowl, the Giants reached the playoffs just once in Manning’s final seven years – a one-and-done appearance in 2016. Manning was replaced by Daniel Jones in 2019. During his first three years, the Giants went 14-35 but reached the playoffs last year with a 9-7-1 mark. Year 1 difference in wins: 1 fewer.