2021 NFL Free Agency Preview: Quarterbacks
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The free-agent negotiating period begins on March 15, with free agents able to officially sign contracts when the league-year starts at 3 p.m. on March 17.
Our series of free-agent previews begins with the quarterbacks.
The Packers’ Picture
Packers Need (1-10 scale): 1. With MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers and last year’s first-round pick, Jordan Love, this number requires no explanation.
Packers Free Agents: Tim Boyle is a restricted free agent but would become unrestricted if he’s not tendered. Even the minimum tender, expected to be in the neighborhood of $2.133 million, is pricey for a team with cap troubles. There are three choices for general manager Brian Gutekunst. One, don’t tender Boyle and let him sign elsewhere so Love can move up to No. 2. Two, keep Boyle (while not necessarily tendering) to create a Love vs. Boyle battle for No. 2. Three, keep Boyle and trade Love. Trading Love would be really bad for the cap, though, so that seems the more unlikely scenario. The guess is Gutekunst lets Boyle go and will go with Rodgers, Love and a developmental rookie.
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Top 10 Free Agents
Dak Prescott, Dallas: Presently the best player on the free-agent market, Prescott is a superb quarterback. It’s little wonder why Mike McCarthy grabbed Dallas’ offer. With a great quarterback, you can win. Without one, you can’t. In five games before a season-ending injury, Prescott threw for 1,856 yards with nine touchdowns. In 2019, he threw for 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns. In his four full seasons, he averaged about 300 rushing yards and five more touchdowns. For his career, he’s completed 66.0 percent of his passes with 2.65 touchdowns per interception.
Jameis Winston, New Orleans: In 2019 with Tampa Bay, Winston led the NFL with 5,109 passing yards. He also led the NFL with 30 interceptions, an unthinkable number. In his last six full seasons as Green Bay’s starter, Rodgers has thrown a total of 31 interceptions. Just think about that for a moment. But Winston’s talent is undeniable. Every “quarterback-whispering” coach believes he’s got the answers to maximize a player’s gifts. You’d think that coach would be the Saints’ Sean Payton, who needs a replacement for the unofficially retired Drew Brees.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami: The 38-year-old Fitzpatrick is the perfect veteran quarterback. The guy can roll out of bed, sling it and make the magic happen. That’s why the “Fitzmagic” nickname is so perfect. In a backyard game, he might be the No. 1 draft pick. In 2018 with Tampa Bay, he led the NFL in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Last season with Miami, he went 4-3 as the starter and completed a career-high 68.5 percent of his passes. He makes a lot of big plays but makes too many big mistakes. He’s fearless to a fault. For his career, he’s thrown 1.32 touchdowns per interception.
Andy Dalton, Dallas: Winning isn’t easy in Cincinnati but Dalton led the Bengals to four consecutive seasons of 10-plus wins. He kept Dallas afloat in the woeful NFC East in 2020 by winning four of his nine starts. For his career, he’s completed 62.2 percent of his passes with 1.73 touchdowns per interception. The touchdown-to-interception ratio matches Mitchell Trubisky’s career mark. He is Mr. Mediocre, though a mediocre quarterback with a ton of experience can get a talented team through tough times if the starter goes down.
Cam Newton, New England: It seems like a lifetime ago since Newton won MVP in Carolina. Actually, it was in 2015, when he threw 35 touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions, led the NFL with a 7.1 touchdown percentage, and added 636 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Given the daunting task of replacing Tom Brady in New England in 2020, he threw eight touchdown passes. Eight. Of course, some of that was based on the Patriots’ offensive philosophy. More of it has to do with his limitations as a passer after taking a beating for years as a dual-threat quarterback.
Tim Boyle, Green Bay: What has Boyle done to rank ahead of the established players on this list? Nothing, other than a couple of strong backups-vs.-backups preseasons. But Boyle checks a lot of boxes. He’s got an exceptional arm and a natural curiosity for the game. He's been a sponge around Rodgers. Those are good starting points. He’s grown a lot even without meaningful playing time. At some point, isn’t the devil you don’t know better than the devil you know if that devil is, say, Mitchell Trubisky? Besides, Boyle is going to collect a chump-change paycheck in comparison to what Trubisky is going to get.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago: The good news is Trubisky returned from a benching and injury and completed 67.0 percent of his passes in 2020, with six wins in nine starts. He seems terrified to actually play the game, though. Dinking-and-dunking isn’t going to ever be a winning formula. At some point as a quarterback, you have to make a play. He has not shown that ability. The second pick of the 2017 draft, surely some coaching staff will believe it can maximize Trubisky’s talents. Maybe it’s Chicago.
Tyrod Taylor, L.A. Chargers: Taylor went 22-20 as the Bills’ starter from 2015 through 2017. Not only was he fairly efficient, he averaged 525 rushing yards during those seasons. In 2017, he had the lowest interception percentage in the NFL. With the Chargers the past two seasons, he threw 36 passes. A sixth-round pick in 2011, he’ll turn 32 in training camp.
C.J. Beathard, San Francisco: A third-round pick in 2017, he’s gone from 54.9 percent with five starts in 2017 to 60.4 percent with five starts in 2018 and 63.5 percent with two starts in 2020, when he threw six touchdowns vs. zero interceptions for a 105.7 rating. That’s a promising trajectory. He’s got talent and he’s got experience. Is there a next step?
Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis: A third-round pick in 2016, Brissett is 12-20 in 32 career starts. In 15 starts with the Colts in 2019, he went 7-8 and completed 60.9 percent of his passes with a solid 18 touchdowns vs. six interceptions. He can make plays with his legs and avoid mistakes with his arm – a decent pair of traits for a backup – but doesn’t do much to move the needle.
