2023 NFL Schedule: Three Takes on Strength of Schedule

On paper, the Green Bay Packers have one of the easiest schedules for the 2023 NFL season. Here's a closer look.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
May 11, 2023 11:36 AM EDT

In this story:

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers’ 2023 schedule is set. Now, how does that project to wins and losses?

One way to break it down is through strength of schedule. Through that prism, here are three ways to view Green Bay’s slate of games and how it could impact the final record.

Old-school: The traditional way to gauge strength of schedule is by adding up all the wins and losses from last season. Going that way, the Packers have the ninth-easiest schedule in 2023, with their 17 opponents going a combined 137-151-1 last year for a winning percentage of .476.

The problem with that method is obvious: It completely ignores offseason transactions. In theory, the Chicago Bears will be vastly improved compared to last year’s 3-14 finish after beefing up the defense in free agency and acquiring premier receiver D.J. Moore to give quarterback Justin Fields a legitimate No. 1 receiver.

On the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings might be significantly worse after going 13-4 on the strength of an NFL-record 11 one-score victories.

The following ways help account for improved/diminished rosters.

Vegas projected win totals: Green Bay’s 17 opponents are projected to win 147.5 games, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s the 18th-easiest schedule and one more win than the median of 146.5.

By the projections, the Packers will play five teams with winning records (only the Chiefs with more than 9.5 wins), six teams with losing records (only the Buccaneers with less than 7.5 wins) and six teams that will finish .500.

With a bunch of teams that could finish just above .500 or just below .500, the schedule features a bunch of games that are winnable … and losable.

Pro Football Network: By PFN’s formula, which incorporates 2022 point differential, 2023 quarterback changes and other factors, the Packers have the third-easiest schedule overall and the second-easiest set of road games.

Indeed, of Green Bay’s nine road games in 2023, only the Lions (9.5 wins) are projected to finish better than .500.

Ultimately, the slate of opponents means little compared to the enormity of the questions surrounding the Packers. Is Jordan Love – surrounded by a young group of targets in the passing game – good enough to win games? And is an underachieving defense that includes eight first-round picks and coordinator Joe Barry capable of rising to the occasion?