Comparing Packers Missed Tackles: Josh Jacobs, AJ Dillon, Aaron Jones
GREEN BAY, Wis. – In choosing Josh Jacobs over Aaron Jones, the Green Bay Packers are betting that the 2022 version of Jacobs will be their running back for 2024 and beyond.
Jacobs’ 2022 season was spectacular. It wasn’t just that he led the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards, it’s how he did it. Jacobs forced 90 missed tackles, tops in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. On its own, his 1,156 yards after contact would have ranked eighth in the NFL.
Jones, as spectacular as he was during his seven seasons with the team, never rushed for 1,156 yards in his career.
That’s no slight on Jones. Among all running backs in NFL history, his 5.05-yard average ranks fifth – just ahead of Hall of Famers Gale Sayers and Barry Sanders. Arguably the best running back in the league today, 49ers All-Pro Christian McCaffrey, has hit that mark only once in his seven seasons.
For a smaller back, Jones ran with unexpected toughness to grind out some hard yards. However, a lot of his yards came because of his uncommon acceleration, which allowed him to beat defenders to the spot so he could run through tackle attempts.
Jacobs’ ability to break a tackle and then hit top speed is rare.
“I think contact balance, man,” he said in explaining his tackle-breaking prowess. “Understanding angles, understanding how the body moves, stuff like that. If I'm coming at an angle, I look at the way guys’ shoulders [are pointed]. their momentum is taking them and I kind of try to use it against them.
“I look at football like chess, especially because the defender’s got to react to me. I'm an offensive player and so I just try to play mind games, whether I might run you over one play or make you miss the next. That's what I get into.”
From a tackle-breaking and turning-nothing-into-something perspective, check out these year-by-year numbers from Pro Football Focus.
2019
Jacobs: 242 carries, 69 missed tackles, 28.5 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.48 yards after contact. Jones: 235 carries, 44 missed tackles, 18.7 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.19 yards after contact. Dillon: at Boston College.
2020
Jacobs: 273 carries, 51 missed tackles, 18.7 percent missed-tackle rate, 2.81 yards after contact. Jones: 201 carries, 38 missed tackles, 18.9 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.54 yards after contact. Dillon: 46 carries, 17 missed tackles, 37.0 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.57 yards after contact.
2021
Jacobs: 217 carries, 57 missed tackles, 26.3 percent missed-tackle rate, 2.84 yards after contact. Jones: 171 carries, 39 missed tackles, 22.8 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.18 yards after contact. Dillon: 187 carries, 31 missed tackles, 16.6 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.18 yards after contact.
2022
Jacobs: 339 carries, 90 missed tackles, 26.5 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.40 yards after contact. Jones: 214 carries, 53 missed tackles, 24.8 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.20 yards after contact. Dillon: 185 carries, 23 missed tackles, 12.4 percent missed-tackle rate, 2.90 yards after contact.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Jacobs was first in missed-tackle rate, Jones was second-best and Dillon was seventh-worst.
2023
Jacobs: 233 carries, 28 missed tackles, 12.0 percent missed-tackle rate, 2.25 yards after contact. Jones: 143 carries, 26 missed tackles, 18.2 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.16 yards after contact. Dillon: 178 carries, 21 missed tackles, 11.8 percent missed-tackle rate, 2.69 yards after contact.
According to Sports Info Solutions, of 49 running backs with at least 100 carries, Jacobs was 34th in missed tackle percentage, Jones was 20th in missed-tackle percentage and Dillon was 47th.
Careers
Jacobs (five years): 22.6 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.01 yards after contact. Jones (seven years): 20.3 percent missed-tackle rate, 3.20 yards after contact. Dillon (four years): 15.4 percent missed-tackle rate, 2.98 yards after contact.
The $48 million question is who did the Packers sign? The Jacobs who broke almost as many tackles in 2022 as Dillon has in his four-year career? Or the one that broke only two more tackles and had six fewer 10-yard runs than Jones while getting 90 more carries in 2023?
The Packers, obviously, are betting on the All-Pro version of Jacobs. That he’ll be playing alongside a legit NFL quarterback should give him some more freedom. Jacobs faced an average of 7.2 defenders in the box on his carries, most in the NFL. It’s tough for any running back to get going and break tackles if he can’t find space to build up a head of steam.
Jordan Love and his deep group of pass-catchers will make defenses pay for loading the box. Or Jacobs will make them pay for not loading the box.
“Young quarterback, young skill guys, good offensive line, so, for a running back, can’t load the box, and when you do you still got guys that can move people around,” Jacobs said. “I think that’s the thing that kind of excited me the most.”
