Five Days Until Kickoff: Five Packers-Titans Keys to Game
GREEN BAY, Wis. – With 1,679 rushing yards, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is well on his way to becoming only the eighth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season.
Contrary to popular belief, he probably won’t get all 321 yards against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night.
Green Bay’s maligned run defense will face the biggest test possible – literally and figuratively – against the Titans. At 247 pounds, Henry is bigger and faster than most of the guys who will be trying to tackle him.
“Very violently and angry,” was Packers coach Matt LaFleur’s description of Henry’s running style.
He should know. He was the Titans’ offensive coordinator in 2018.
“He is a beast and you can see it,” LaFleur said. “He's playing with a lot of confidence. You can see all 11 guys, they're very efficient on offense, both in the run game and the pass game. Obviously, when you have a guy of the caliber of Derrick Henry, who's a big man that is very, very fast, it sets everything up for you. They know each and every week everybody's going to come to try to stop the run and nobody can do it.”
Well, that’s not true. He’s been held to less than 100 yards five times, including 60 yards (4.0 average) vs. Cleveland in Week 13, 68 yards (3.2 average) by Chicago in Week 9, 75 yards (3.8 average) by Pittsburgh in Week 7, 57 yards (3.0 average) by Buffalo in Week 5 and 84 yards (3.4 average) by Jacksonville in Week 2. He’s rushed for at least 133 yards in four of the last five games.
While it is No. 21 with 4.55 yards allowed per carry, Green Bay’s run defense has played better of late. But, obviously, it hasn’t faced anyone like Henry.
“I think we’re improving each and every week,” safety Adrian Amos said after Saturday night’s win over Carolina.
Here are the rest of this week’s five keys to the game.
2. More Than Henry
Teams that load the box to stop Henry do so at their own peril. Ryan Tannehill is averaging a league-best 10.2 yards per attempt on play action, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s up sharply from his 6.9 yards per attempt on standard dropbacks.
With A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, Tannehill has one of the better receiver tandems in the NFL. His 110.4 passer rating, on the strength of 31 touchdowns vs. five interceptions, is Rodgers-esque. For the Packers, cornerback Jaire Alexander was selected for the Pro Bowl but Kevin King is going to need a big game.
3. Protecting Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers has benefitted from exemplary pass protection for most of the season. Against Carolina, however, a feeble Panthers pass rush dropped Rodgers five times. It was the most unexpected of results considering the Panthers had only 19 sacks in their first 13 games and only one game of more than two sacks.
This looks like a mismatch, too. The Titans have an NFL-low 14 sacks. Harold Landry leads the team with 4.5 sacks. He’s rushed mostly against the left tackle this season, meaning a battle with newly minted Pro Bowler David Bakhtiari. Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons has three sacks and is tied for 16th among interior linemen with 36 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. Left guard Lucas Patrick, who allowed two sacks last week, must return to form.
4. Turnover Table
Turnovers are always critical. The Packers might have been in a world of trouble without Krys Barnes’ goal-line punch-out of Teddy Bridgewater’s quarterback sneak on Saturday. The Titans, powered by their 21 takeaways, are an NFL-best plus-12 on turnovers.
Cornerback Malcolm Butler and safety Amani Hooker have three interceptions apiece. Safety Kevin Byard doesn’t have any this year but had a league-high eight in 2017 and a total of 17 the previous three seasons.
5. Old Man Winter
The Saturday night game against Carolina didn’t feel like winter. Sunday night’s game will definitely have some bite. According to Weather.com, the forecast calls for a low of 17 with 15 mph winds from the northeast.
The Packers didn’t handle a brutally windy midseason game against Minnesota, with Dalvin Cook running wild and scoring four touchdowns. Obviously, with Henry, the Titans have the ingredients to win using that same formula. Green Bay wants homefield advantage because of the benefits of the January weather. It needs to show it can thrive in those conditions.
