Free Agency 2020: Littleton Leads Linebackers
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Perhaps subject to change based on the ratification of a new collective bargaining agreement and the ramifications from the COVID-19 virus, NFL free agency will start on Monday with the so-called legal-tampering period – when teams can officially begin negotiations with free agents – and continue on Wednesday, when the signing period begins at 3 p.m. With that, here is our preview of the top 10 free-agent linebackers. (Age at the start of the new league-year is in parentheses.)
FIRST, THE PACKERS’ OUTLOOK
This is clearly Green Bay’s biggest need. Blake Martinez, who set a franchise record last season with 201 tackles (coaches’ count) and has finished either first or second in the league in tackles (by the official league count) each of the past three seasons, is headed to free agency. His sometimes-sidekick, B.J. Goodson, will be a free agent, too. General manager Brian Gutekunst traded up to get Oren Burks in the third round in 2018, but his progress has been stymied by significant injuries (shoulder in 2018; pectoral in 2019) in both of his training camps. Ty Summers, a seventh-round pick last year, played well on special teams as a rookie but didn’t see action on defense.
OUR TOP 10
Cory Littleton, L.A. Rams (26): Littleton, who entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2016, has recorded 259 tackles, five interceptions and 22 passes defensed in his two seasons as a starter. Among linebackers over that span, Littleton ranks second in interceptions, first in passes defensed and sixth in tackles. His missed-tackle rate of 2.9 percent was the best of the 31 linebackers who recorded at least 100 tackles, according to Sports Info Solutions. While a three-down linebacker, the passing game is where he thrives. He’s a sideline-to-sideline defender with the speed to match up on running backs. Pro Football Focus has a metric called run-stop percentage, which essentially measures impact tackles per run-defending snap. Last year, of 70 off-the-ball linebackers who played at last 185 run-defending snaps, Littleton ranked 53rd in run-stop percentage. According to PFF, the Rams ran dime personnel on a league-high 55.3 percent of their defensive snaps vs. the pass; the Packers’ dime rate of 27 percent ranked fourth, so he’d be an immediate fit for how defensive coordinator Mike Pettine likes to play. A source said he’s the Packers’ No. 1 target at the position.
De’Vondre Campbell, Atlanta (26): Campbell has started 54 games in his four seasons and played in all 64 career games. He’s coming off the best season of his career with career-high totals of 129 tackles, two sacks, six tackles for losses, two interceptions and three forced fumbles. He added five passes defensed. His missed-tackle rate of 5.9 percent was fifth-best of the 31 linebackers who recorded at least 100 tackles, according to Sports Info Solutions. Of 70 off-the-ball linebackers who played at last 185 run-defending snaps, Campbell ranked 44th in PFF’s run-stop percentage. In coverage, Campbell is much better against tight ends than running backs. Among linebackers over the last three seasons, Campbell is 11th in tackles.
Jamie Collins, New England (30): Collins also shows the importance of scheme and coaching. He starred with the Patriots as a second-round pick in 2013, flopped after being traded to Cleveland and signing a big contract, and surged upon his return to New England last year. In 2019, Collins had seven sacks, 10 tackles for losses, 81 tackles, three interceptions and seven passes defensed. Of those five numbers, only the tackle count didn’t set a personal record. He added three forced fumbles and has 16 in seven seasons. His missed-tackle rate was a woeful 16.5 percent, second-most in the league among linebackers with at least 80 tackles but his average tackle was made 2.9 yards downfield, which was second-best. Of 70 off-the-ball linebackers who played at last 185 run-defending snaps, he ranked 24th in PFF’s run-stop percentage
Joe Schobert, Cleveland (28): Schobert made the transition from 3-4 outside linebacker at Wisconsin to off-the-ball linebacker with the Browns. Over the last three seasons, Martinez leads the NFL with 443 tackles and Schobert is fourth with 380 tackles. However, Schobert beat Martinez in interceptions (6-2), passes defensed (19-13) and forced fumbles (7-2). That includes four interceptions and nine passes defensed in 2019. His missed-tackle rate of 11.7 percent ranked 21st of the 31 linebackers who recorded at least 100 tackles, according to Sports Info Solutions. Of 70 off-the-ball linebackers who played at last 185 run-defending snaps, Schobert ranked 25th in PFF’s run-stop percentage. “Like Blake, he wins with his brain and he’ll get everyone lined up right,” the scout said, “but every tackle will come at 4 yards.”
Blake Martinez, Green Bay (26): By the official league stats, Martinez recorded 155 tackles. That was second in the league behind only Seattle’s Bobby Wagner (159), marking the third consecutive year Martinez finished first or second. Of the 31 linebackers who recorded at least 100 tackles, Martinez ranked 17th in missed-tackle percentage (9.9 percent), according to Sports Info Solutions. Of 70 off-the-ball linebackers who played at last 185 run-defending snaps, Martinez ranked 26th in PFF’s run-stop percentage. His athletic deficiencies were driven home in the NFC Championship Game.
Nick Kwiatkoski, Chicago (26). Last season, due to injuries to Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan, Kwiatkoski started a career-high eight games. He put up career-best numbers across the board with 76 tackles, three sacks, eight tackles for losses, four passes defensed and one interception. Even with Martinez starting 16 games and playing exactly twice as many snaps (1,024 to 512), Kwiatkoski had more passes defensed (4 to 2) and tackles for losses (8 to 5) and had matching totals in sacks, interceptions and forced fumbles (one). His missed-tackle rate of 8.5 percent would have ranked 12th had he been one of the 31 linebackers who recorded at least 100 tackles, according to Sports Info Solutions. Of 70 off-the-ball linebackers who played at last 185 run-defending snaps, Kwiatkoski ranked 30th in PFF’s run-stop percentage. “Same deal as Martinez,” the scout said. “He’s a notch below Campbell. He’s a lot closer to (B.J.) Goodson than Campbell. Like Schobert, someone is going to pay him and regret it.”
Kyle Van Noy, New England (29): Van Noy shows what scheme and coaching can do. A second-round pick by Detroit in 2014, he started seven games in two-and-a-half seasons before being shipped to New England. He thrived with the Patriots. In three full seasons as a starter, he piled up 15.5 sacks, 19 tackles for losses, 227 tackles, two forced fumbles and one interception. Used more on the edge in 2019, Van Noy slashed his missed-tackle rate from an appalling 17.1 percent down to 8.3 percent. With experience as an off-the-ball linebacker and edge rusher, it’s easy to visualize Van Noy lining up at linebacker on first and second downs and joining the pass rush on third down.
Christian Kirksey, Cleveland (27): Kirksey was released by Cleveland this week and is making the free-agent rounds – including a stop in Green Bay on Thursday. In 2016 and 2017, Kirksey was one of more productive linebackers in the NFL, with 148 tackles, 2.5 sacks and 11 tackles for losses in 2016 and 138 tackles, 3.5 sacks, six tackles for losses and two forced fumbles in 2017. In between those seasons, he inked a four-year, $38 million contract extension. However, injuries have derailed his career. In 2018, he played in only seven games due to shoulder, ankle and hamstring injuries but still intercepted two passes – the only two picks of his career – and matched his career high with five passes defensed. He played in only two games in 2019 following a torn pectoral tendon that required surgery. For his career, his missed-tackle rate is 10.6 percent.
A.J. Klein, New Orleans (28): A native of Kimberly, Wis., Klein has started 65 games in seven NFL seasons, including 42 for the Saints the past three seasons. Last season, he recorded 69 tackles, including 2.5 sacks and five for losses, one interception and one forced fumble. He’s more of a two-down linebacker, though he did play 100 percent of the snaps in two games last year and was close to it in two others. Of 70 off-the-ball linebackers who played at last 185 run-defending snaps, he ranked 29th in PFF’s run-stop percentage. According to Sports Info Solutions, his missed-tackle rate was 14.5 percent – a sharp increase over 9.1 percent in 2018.
Darron Lee, Kansas City (25): Lee has been a bust as the 20th pick of the 2016 draft. Still, as Gutekunst has said, draft grades matter – long after the draft. Lee was considered an option for Green Bay in that draft class. At the 2016 Combine, he measured 6-foot-1 and 232 pounds and ran his 40 in 4.47 seconds. He has had some success, with 94 tackles and nine tackles for losses in 2017 and three interceptions in 2018. He was traded to the Chiefs last year for a sixth-round pick. He had 31 tackles and 16 games (two starts). For his career, his missed tackle-rate is 9.9 percent.
