Packers at Broncos: Three Reasons to Worry
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, even with their problems on offense and their mile-long injury list, should be able to go to the Mile High City and beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Right?
The Broncos are 1-5. They rank 29th in scoring differential (minus-11.8 per game) and last in yardage differential (minus-134.0 per game). Their two big moves to make them relevant have been bust.
First, they traded two first-round picks, two second-round picks and some other assets to the Seattle Seahawks to acquire quarterback Russell Wilson. However, after going 7-10 with Teddy Bridgewater in 2021, the Broncos are 6-17 with Wilson.
This offseason, Denver traded first- and second-round picks to New Orleans for coach Sean Payton and a third-round selection. Payton essentially called former coach Nathaniel Hackett an incompetent buffoon. Well, Hackett went 4-11 during his abbreviated season while one of Payton’s five losses came against the Hackett-coordinated Jets offense led by Zach Wilson.
The strength of the team is supposed to be the defense. However, that side of the ball gave up 35, 70, 28 and 31 points in consecutive weeks. It’s last in the NFL in points allowed per game, rushing per play, passing per play and opponent passer rating.
The Packers have lost two in a row. They can’t afford to lose this game.
But they could. Here are this week’s three reasons to worry.
1. Russell Wilson Will Cook
Wilson has been a huge disappointment, to be sure. He averaged 32 touchdown passes per season with Seattle, including 40 in 2020. In 21 career games with Denver, he’s thrown 28. In 2021, his final season with the Seahawks, he had a 103.1 passer rating that was his fourth consecutive of better than 100. With Denver, he’s at 88.5.
However, he has been decent this season. He’s completed almost 66 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 99.0 rating that ranks seventh.
“I’ve seen enough Russell Wilson,” said Packers defensive passing game coordinator Greg Williams, who matched up with Wilson twice each year when he was in Arizona. “If he gets loose, he still does a good job of doing off-schedule plays when he does get out of the pocket. He’s not a Lamar Jackson type of player, but he is elusive.
“He understands where the rush is coming from. He always has his eyes down the field, so you’ve got to be aware, and you’ve got to cover for longer than normal when you deal with Russell Wilson. So, he’s still Russell Wilson and there’s a reason why he’s had so much success in this league. I still see that in him and I still know he has that in him, so I’m not going to put my guard down at all.”
Here’s why the Packers need to concerned, beyond the questionable status of cornerback Jaire Alexander.
Will Jaire Alexander play against the Broncos?
Photo by Rick Wood/USA Today Sports Images
First, the Broncos are coming off their mini-bye, which gave Payton and Wilson three additional days to figure out something. Second, he’s always been one of the best deep-ball artists; he’s 10-of-24 with three touchdowns and no interceptions this year.
Third, he’s still superb under pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, with drops turned into completions and throwaways taken out of the equation, he’s the most-accurate passer in the league while pressured.
Finally, the Packers have faced some athletic quarterbacks and some veteran quarterbacks, but they haven’t faced a proven play-extender this season.
“That’s a Hall of Fame guy,” safety Darnell Savage said. “Always with his extended plays, that’s always a big thing. Nowadays, a lot of quarterbacks can do that but he’s one that’s been doing it for a long time as far as extending plays and turning those, ‘(Groan)’ plays into, ‘Wow, he got out of that and made a big play.’ I think that’s the biggest thing.
“And then, obviously, he’s seen a lot of stuff because he’s been in this league so long, so he’s seen a lot of defenses. We’ve just got to make sure we do a good job of playing a little chess match with him.”
2. Strength vs. Weakness
The Broncos do have one overwhelming strength: their ability to run the football. The Broncos enter Sunday ranked fourth with 4.93 yards per carry.
And we all know the Packers’ kryptonite. Green Bay ranks 20th with 4.27 yards allowed per carry and 28th with 143.4 rushing yards allowed per game. It is coming off a strong performance against the Raiders in Week 5, but Las Vegas hasn’t run the ball against anyone this season.
“Going back to the Raider game, the whole mindset was they had a receiver that could destroy the game and they had a running back that led the NFL in rushing last year, so the mindset was really take care of those two guys, and I thought we really did,’ Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry said.
“Jacobs is a heck of a back, and the key thing when you play guys like that is never to let them get started, and I thought we really did a good job not letting that back get going. We let one out in the second half where we missed a tackle, but for the most part I thought they guys did a really good job against him.”
Jaleel McLaughlin, a 5-foot-7, 187-pound undrafted rookie from Youngstown State, is second in the NFL with 6.6 yards per carry. Javonte Williams, who is coming back from a horrendous knee injury, is averaging only 4.0 per carry but ran 10 times for 52 yards against the Chiefs in his last outing. They’ve each got three runs of 15-plus yards; the Packers’ backs don’t have any.
3. Denver’s Pass Defense … Really
Patrick Surtain
Photo by Ron Chenoy/USA Today Sports Images
In NFL history, no team has allowed more passing yards per game than the 2011 Packers. With teams in catch-up mode practically from the opening kickoff, Green Bay allowed 299.75 passing yards per game. That’s exactly what the Broncos are allowing this season, which is the most in the league by merely 25 yards.
It’s not just Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (309 yards) or Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (306 yards) who’ve carved up the Broncos. So have Chicago’s Justin Fields (335 yards) and Washington’s Sam Howell (299 yards).
However, the Broncos have an elite corner in Patrick Surtain, first-team All-Pro last year, and a top safety in Justin Simmons, who led the NFL with six interceptions last season.
“Kareem Jackson’s a baller, too, and he’s been doing it for a long time,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “If you look at it, whether it was the Miami game, I thought just watching Chicago, there was some unbelievable plays in that game that sometimes you don’t make. There were a lot of bang-bang plays. I think you see that on tape.
“It’s not like they’re not being very competitive. There’s been some spectacular plays made against them. I definitely think it’s a group that you’ve got to be careful. They’ve got a lot of talent on the back end and they can make you play because they’ve got really good ball skills.”
LaFleur continued that he’s not so much worried about the Broncos, who held Mahomes and the Chiefs to just one touchdown last week, but his own struggling unit. Jordan Love has one touchdown vs. five interceptions the last two games after throwing six touchdowns and zero interceptions the first two games.
Defenses are rushing four and dropping seven into coverage, daring Love to see through a bunch of defenders to make plays. He’s struggled.
“I see a young quarterback with talent,” Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said. “Obviously, this league is full of young quarterbacks who haven’t enough time to get to the point where they want to be. He’s a guy that has legs. He can throw the football and he can make off-schedule plays that are scary for you.
“They have a bunch of explosive plays on tape and a bunch of long DPIs. He can buy time and throw the ball 70 yards in the air. [It’s about] containing this young quarterback and making it hard pre-snap on him to look through layers of coverage and make decisions. Most of all, contain his legs because if he gets out of the pocket, it could be a problem for us.”
