Packers at Halfway Point of Season: Offense Soars
GREEN BAY, Wis. – With 31.6 points per game, the Green Bay Packers rank third in the league in scoring. It’s an impressive showing. Last year, the Packers finished 15th with just 23.5 points per game. That’s an 8.1-point improvement without an improved roster.
“I hope we’re always trying to improve and I think there is more room out there for us,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday when asked about the potential returns from injury of left tackle David Bakhtiari and receiver Allen Lazard. “There’s no such thing as the perfect game. I think there’s more out there for us to continue to grow, develop. We’re really excited about those guys potentially getting back into the fold.”
MVP
Aaron Rodgers ranks third on the MVP boards at sportsbooks. After a couple subpar seasons, Rodgers has been nothing short of sensational. He’s No. 1 in the NFL with a 117.5 passer rating and behind only Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes with 24 touchdowns vs. two interceptions. He’s got a passer rating of at least 110 in six of eight games. He hit that lofty mark just six times the past two seasons – three apiece in 2019 and 2018.
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To do what he’s done with no significant additions to the roster and without his No. 2 receiver, Lazard, the past five games only adds to his early-season accomplishments. For years, the Packers’ big-play fortunes frequently revolved around Rodgers’ ad-libbing style. This year, the big plays have come mostly within the flow of the offense.
Biggest Surprise
Billy Turner, a third-round pick by Miami in 2014, had never won a starting job in training camp. Nonetheless, the Packers signed him to a four-year, $28 million contract in free agency last year.
His debut season wasn’t impressive. Of 63 guards to play at least 50 percent of the snaps, he finished 58th in ProFootballFocus.com’s pass-protection metric with six sacks, six hits and 45 total pressures. That pressure count was the worst in the league among guards. Sports Info Solutions charged him with 12 blown blocks in the run game, fourth-most among all guards.
With the free-agent departure of Bryan Bulaga, the Packers went with Turner at right tackle. Right tackle is a critical position, with as many premier pass rushers facing right tackles as left tackles. Turner’s been a much better fit at his new spot. While he ranks only 40th out of 54 offensive tackles in PFF’s pass-protection metric with two sacks and 13 total pressures in six games, he’s mostly been invisible – the best thing you can say about an offensive lineman. Of that pressures count, nine pressures came in three games at right tackle and only four the past three games at left tackle.
Biggest Disappointment
According to Pro Football Focus, 75 receivers have been targeted 30 times. With five drops out of 23 catchable passes, Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 21.7 percent drop rate is the worst in the NFL. He’s next-to-last with a catch rate of 48.6 percent. He also was next-to-last in 2019 with a catch rate of 48.1 percent. With game-breaking speed, Valdes-Scantling will continue getting ample playing time. He needs to take better advantage of his opportunities.
Biggest Improvement
Last season, the Packers finished No. 23 with a 36.0 percent success rate on third down. This year, they’re No. 5 with a 49.5 percent success rate. Looking deeper, Green Bay is third with a 34.0 percent success rate on third-and-10 or longer. Last year, it was 25th with an 18.0 percent success rate.
Biggest Sign of Trouble
Nothing has really changed. Teams that can limit Davante Adams have a fighting chance. In the loss to Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers limited him to six receptions for 61 yards. In the loss to Minnesota, while Adams scored three touchdowns, he gained only 53 yards on his seven receptions. His long gain on those 13 receptions went for only 18 yards.
Maybe the return of Lazard will be just the ticket. However, against teams that are able to limit the damage produced by Adams, do the Packers have enough other players to pick up the slack?
