Packers-Lions: Three Reasons to Worry on Thursday Night Football
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Once upon a time, the Green Bay Packers won an NFL-record 24 consecutive home games against the Detroit Lions.
That’s ancient history.
Heading into Thursday night’s showdown between NFC North co-leaders, the Lions have won four of their last eight visits to Lambeau Field. That includes last year’s Week 18 game in which the Lions stunned the Packers to keep their rivals out of the playoffs.
Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose to the Lions again.
1. State of Offensive Lines
Detroit’s biggest edge might be its offensive line against Green Bay’s defensive line. From left tackle Taylor Decker to right tackle Penei Sewell, Detroit’s front wall is formidable.
With the season on the line last year at Lambeau, that unit flexed its collective muscle. During the fourth quarter, Detroit’s running backs carried 12 times for 55 yards to score the deciding touchdown on one drive and run out the clock on another.
While right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai won’t play, Decker is expected to be back after missing a couple games with an ankle injury. Decker, left guard Jonah Jackson (Pro Bowl in 2021), center Frank Ragnow (Pro Bowl in 2020 and 2022) and right tackle Penei Sewell (Pro Bowl in 2022) are standouts. Sewell, in particular, is a will-imposing mauler.
Can Green Bay’s defensive line, which was worn down by the Lions last season and the Falcons a couple weeks ago, stop Detroit’s running game and create the type of third-and-longs in which Rashan Gary and Co. could thrive?
Meanwhile, Green Bay’s offensive line could be a hot mess. Left tackle David Bakhtiari will miss a third consecutive game with a knee injury that has ruined his career. Left guard Elgton Jenkins will miss a second consecutive game with his sprained MCL. Right tackle Zach Tom is questionable with a knee injury of his own, though there’s a good chance he’ll play – at less than 100 percent – despite what looked like a potentially nasty injury.
Added together, the Lions’ superb offensive line will be mostly intact against the Packers’ young defensive line, and the Lions’ talented defensive front will be intact against the Packers’ beat-up offensive line.
2. Detroit’s Dominant Run Defense
This reason to worry runs parallel to No. 1 on the list.
In Week 2, the Packers were demolished on the ground by the Falcons’ high-flying duo of rookie Bijan Robinson and powerful Tyler Allgeier. Thanks mostly to Robinson, whose speed behind Atlanta’s superb offensive line made him practically unstoppable, the Falcons rushed for 211 yards on 45 carries.
Last week at Detroit, the Falcons managed just 44 yards on 20 carries. Same running backs, same offensive line, same artificial-turf surface. But different defense.
If Atlanta’s dominant rushing attack was stuck in the mud at Detroit, what on earth is Green Bay’s feeble rushing attack going to do even with the return of Aaron Jones?
Through three games, the Packers are 26th in rushing yards per attempt (3.43) and 23rd in rushing yards per game (90.3). If the Packers can’t run it against the Lions, who are fifth in rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.18) and per game (72.0), then it’s going to force Jordan Love into a bunch of must-pass situations.
That’s not ideal, to state the obvious. Having stopped Robinson and Allgeier in their tracks last week, Detroit’s pass rush teed off on Desmond Ridder to the tune of seven sacks. Aidan Hutchinson had two sacks in that game and leads the NFL with 19 total pressures, according to Pro Football focus.
Without the elite pass-protection skill of Bakhtiari and Jenkins and with what could be a limited Tom, Hutchinson and a blitzing defense could be a challenge too great to overcome.
“He is a game wrecker. The guy’s all over the place,” coach Matt LaFleur said of Hutchinson. “He rarely comes out of the game. And he just sets the tone, I would say. I think that whole defense, you can see the physicality, you can see the speed, the relentless pursuit on tape. And I think they’re well-coached and they’ve got talented players, so it presents a lot of challenges for us as an offense.”
3. Goff Gets Some Help
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown against the Packers
Photo by Tork Mason/USA Today Sports Images
Coming off a season in which he threw for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns, the Lions gave quarterback Jared Goff some help with the addition of tight end Sam LaPorta with the 34th overall selection in this year’s draft.
LaPorta has been tremendous. He’s caught 18-of-22 passes (81.8 percent) for 186 yards and one touchdown. En route to becoming the first tight end to catch five-plus passes in each of his first three career games, LaPorta’s catch count is the most by a tight end to start his career. Regardless of experience, LaPorta this season ranks first among tight ends in yards and second in receptions.
He's been the perfect addition to a passing game that’s run through receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. This season, St. Brown became the fourth-fastest to 200 career catches in NFL history. Since the start of last season, only Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson (16) has more six-catch games than St. Brown (15).
St. Brown isn’t “just” a slot receiver, though he’s fifth in the league with 11 slot receptions and seventh with 124 slot yards. When he does line up in the slot, he’ll be the biggest challenge that Green Bay’s Keisean Nixon has faced.
“Keisean was a guy that was that I think the most snaps he’d ever played on defense was last year and – what was it? – just over 300 snaps,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “Hopefully, Keisean’s just going to get better and better and more comfortable.
“Playing the nickel corner position, it’s a different world in there. Keisean’s definitely got the right mentality to do it. Things happen a lot faster. They obviously put different body types in the slot from an offensive standpoint. I think Keisean, he’s done a really good job and, helpfully, will continue to get better and better as the season goes on.”
With St. Brown and LaPorta off to hot starts, Goff enters the game ranked fifth in passer rating, sixth in completion percentage and third in yards per attempt.
“I went to a Super Bowl with the guy, so I think he’s an elite quarterback, there’s no doubt about it,” Barry said. “Going into the third year in that system, you can see he’s got full command of the offense and he’s got really good weapons around him. Jared’s an elite quarterback in this league. It’s going to be a great challenge for us on Thursday night.”
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