Packers Opponent Breakdown: Inside the Dolphins
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will spend Christmas in Miami with a must-win game against the Dolphins. Miami has lost three in a row – all against high-quality teams – but will be at home and with a significant rest advantage.
Let’s take a deeper look at the Dolphins through the eyes of longtime beat writer Alain Poupart of All Dolphins.
1. Why is Miami’s defense so bad on the road but so good at home?
Yeah, the difference in the numbers is staggering, and I think the first place to look is who they played and where they played them. The home opponents so far have been New England, Buffalo, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Houston, whereas the road opponents have been Baltimore, Cincinnati, the New York Jets, Chicago, Detroit, San Francisco, the L.A. Chargers and Buffalo.
I think overall there's a big difference there. Beyond that, I think we maybe have to factor the heat effect at Hard Rock Stadium in the early part of the season where visiting players are in the sun (and it gets hot in South Florida) on the sideline whereas the Dolphins are in the shade. Beyond that, it's kind of a mystery.
2. I think it’s fair to say that Tua Tagovailoa has some limitations as a passer, but you can’t knock the results of being No. 1 in passer rating. What has he done so well this season? And is he a championship-level quarterback or the byproduct of having a track team at receiver? In other words, does he have some limitations that make you think, 'He's good, but he's just never going to be quite good enough to win a Super Bowl’ or is he good enough?
Let me first by saying that Tua Tagovailoa is the most polarizing player in Dolphins history, and there might not be a close second. Where Tua excels when he's on his game is with short-range and intermediate-range accuracy (anything but the deep ball) and quick decision-making. Tua is the ultimate point guard and there's no question — even though this is not a popular opinion among his fan base — that he's benefited greatly from having Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and that stupid speed outside.
As far as “championship quarterback,” I would say I don't see him as a pure franchise QB along the lines of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert or even Trevor Lawrence. But there have been a lot worse quarterbacks in the NFL who have won a Super Bowl title, so it would be foolish to say the Dolphins could never win it with Tua at quarterback. At the same time, he's not somebody where you would say it's almost inevitable that he'll win a Super Bowl at some point, like those guys mentioned above.
3. For teams that have had success against that Dolphins’ offense, what’s been the secret sauce?
The one thing that jumps out here is taking away the passes over the top (obviously), getting physical with the receivers and taking away the deep middle of the field. The Dolphins have made a lot of money this season with deep slants and deep ins for 15-20 yards over the middle. The Steelers and Chargers were the two teams that took that away. Getting pressure on Tua and disrupting his timing obviously is another way to defend the Dolphins’ passing game but the pass protection has been solid for the most part.
4. Healthy and in a groove, rookie receiver Christian Watson has made a huge impact with his big-play ability. How has Miami fared against receivers with game-breaking ability? And in a related note, Xavien Howard’s numbers are bad. How has he played this season?
I'll start with Howard, who really has not had a good year, though he was slowed for a few weeks earlier by groin issues. But he hasn't shown up on the injury report for a few weeks on and it's simply not the same Xavien Howard we saw in 2020 or 2021. As for opposing receivers who really hurt the Dolphins, off the top of my head I'd say Rashod Bateman and Tee Higgins had big plays against the Dolphins, Justin Jefferson had a good game (then again, he always does), and Mike Williams really gave the Dolphins problems.
5. The Dolphins have lost three in a row – against really good teams. What are your expectations for Sunday?
I will include my final score prediction in my comprehensive game preview to be published Saturday, but my thought for now is that the Dolphins should win this game, even though it won't be easy. I think the Dolphins offense rebounded well against Buffalo on Saturday after two tough outings and it should be humming again in the comforts of Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday.
