Packers-Saints: Three Reasons for Concern
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Could these next five days, starting with a Sunday home game against the New Orleans Saints, be a tipping point for the Green Bay Packers?
After a rousing win at the Chicago Bears to kick off a new season and a new era, the Packers squandered a 12-point lead at the Atlanta Falcons. Up next: at Lambeau against the Saints, who are 2-0, and at home against the Detroit Lions, the prohibitive NFC North favorite, on Thursday night.
After doing so many things correctly through the first seven quarters, it’s possible the Packers could be 1-3 by this time next week. While the Packers are 1 1/2-point favorites at SI Sportsbook, here are three reasons to worry.
1. Saints Pass Defense
While he failed to deliver a signature fourth quarter at Atlanta, the Packers couldn’t have asked for much more from Jordan Love, who through two games leads the NFL in touchdown passes (six), interceptions (zero) and passer rating (118.8).
The challenge is going to get much bigger against the Saints. Coach Dennis Allen is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL, and he’s got superior defensive personnel with Cameron Jordan and Carl Granderson to rush the passer, four-time All-Pro Demario Davis at linebacker, Marshon Lattimore as a legitimate No. 1 corner and Tyrann Mathieu as a Hall of Fame-caliber safety.
“They do what they do and they stick to it,” Love said. “They don’t do a whole lot of crazy stuff. They have some really good pressure packages on third down, but I think they’ve got a good front that gets a lot of pressure home just with four.
“And then they play some good coverages, some sticky coverages, in the back end and really challenge receivers and do a good job pressing and getting hands on and just throwing off timing. I think that’s what they do and they do a really good job of doing it and staying consistent with what they do.”
The Saints enter the week ranked second in opponent passer rating, third in interception percentage, fourth in completion percentage and seventh in sack percentage.
While it’s true Love hasn’t faced a defense as good as the Saints will field on Sunday, it’s also true the Saints haven’t faced a quarterback as good as Love.
“He’s a very athletic quarterback, but he’s a pocket passer," Saints defensive coordinator Joe Woods told reporters this week. “He’s really not a runner. He definitely has the arm strength. He’s a problem when things break down. He can create plays with his feet. He’s a problem trying to get him down if you’re rushing four.
“I know it’s his first year there (as Green Bay’s starter), but all the signs are there. I think he’s going to be a tremendous quarterback.”
Given the Packers’ struggles running the football and the iffy status of running back Aaron Jones, it might be up to Love and his receivers to win this game. Can they make it happen against an elite defense?
“We’re elite corners,” Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor said. “We’re an elite secondary, we’re an elite defense. We play with speed. As long as we attach to the person that we’re supposed to and just run with him, we’ll be fine.”
2. Situational Football
Or, this could be a reason why the Packers will win. This really is a good-on-good matchup. Offensively, the Packers are fifth on third down and first in the red zone. Defensively, the Saints are third on third down and third in the red zone. The red zone is particularly intriguing; the Packers have scored five touchdowns out of six opportunities and the Saints have five stops out of six opportunities.
“Fast, physical, aggressive, very sound,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “They’re going to challenge you on all three levels. Demario Davis a game-wrecker, Cam Jordan. They’ve got guys at every level and they’ve got complementary pieces around them. Obviously, Lattimore, Honey Badger (Mathieu). They’ve got a ton of players on that defense and they challenge you.
Saints CB Marshon Lattimore breaks up a pass against the Packers in the 2021 opener.
Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images
“I told our guys on the perimeter, they’re going to grab and hold. They play aggressive, and you’ve got to be very fundamentally sound. Up front, you’ve got to do a great job of coming off the ball and playing with great pad level because they are a physical bunch and they play with extreme effort. When you get effort plus scheme plus talent, you have one of the best defenses in the National Football League.”
In the condensed area that is the red zone, winning one-on-one matchups is key. Can Green Bay’s receivers, regardless of whether Christian Watson makes his season debut following a hamstring injury, get open against the likes of Lattimore, a Pro Bowler following four of his first six seasons?
“Lattimore is a really good corner,” Love said, noting Lattimore mostly plays on the left side. “He does some really good things on the outside. Just being able to fight through contact and win on him a couple times is key. I’ve seen other teams maybe shied away from going at him. I think it’s just a test for our receivers to be able to go and attack him and win.”
3. Deep Thoughts
With Derek Carr, the Saints not only have a more accomplished quarterback than the Bears (Justin Fields) or Falcons (Desmond Ridder), but they’ve got one who’s much more adept at stretching the field vertically.
Carr ranks fourth in air yards per attempt and second in air yards per completion. On passes 20-plus yards downfield, Carr is No. 1 in attempts (15), completions (seven) and yards (215), according to Pro Football Focus. That’s more attempts than Ridder and Fields combined. For additional context, Love is 1-of-7 for 37 yards on his deep shots.
Carr has targeted Rashid Shaheed deep four times. All four passes were caught. Chris Olave, last year’s first-round pick, also is a legit deep threat.
“The Raiders have had some really good quarterbacks. He’s the all-time (leader), if not in every category, most categories for the Raiders,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “Very accomplished player. And then the wide receiver corps that they have – the Olave kid, he’s a very good player. 13 [Michael Thomas] has been doing it for them for a long time.
“Every week’s going to pose challenges. This week, obviously, is the vertical passing game. They’ve had some explosion plays, especially early on the last two games. So, that’s going to be the challenge this week, obviously, is not let them get behind us and get the ball thrown over our head.”
In what could be a low-scoring game, one deep shot by Carr – whether it’s a touchdown or interception – could be the difference.
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