Packers vs. Vikings: Three Reasons for Concern
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 2-4 entering Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Even though the calendar won’t turn to November for a few more days, this is a must-win game for the Packers.
“We need this win,” cornerback Jaire Alexander said. “We’ve got to win.”
Momentum is on Minnesota’s side. Following a 0-3 start, the Vikings have won three of their last four games. After beating the powerful San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, the Vikings look like a team capable of beating any team in the league.
Following a 2-1 start, the Packers have lost three in a row. They can’t move the ball and they can’t force turnovers. They start games poorly and end games even worse.
Here are three reasons why the Vikings will hand the Packers a crushing loss.
1. Brian Flores vs. Matt LaFleur
Packers coach Matt LaFleur entered the season with the third-highest winning percentage in NFL history. However, following the offseason trade of Aaron Rodgers, he’s a coach that’s looking for answers. He couldn’t find them after the mini-bye. He couldn’t find them after the regular bye.
Can he and his slumping team find them in a rivalry game?
It’s worth noting that while LaFleur stuck with Joe Barry, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell whacked defensive coordinator Ed Donatell after last year’s 13-win season and made a big-splash hire with Brian Flores.
The blitz-happy Flores will test LaFleur and his young offense at every turn. The Vikings will blitz coming off the bus. They will blitz to start the game. They will blitz to end the game. The Vikings are only 16th in sack percentage but they dictate the terms of the action.
Can a leaky offensive line block consistently? Can Love, who’s played mostly vanilla defenses through his first six starts of the season, make the proper adjustments at the line of scrimmage?
“I haven’t really faced a defense like Minnesota the way they run it,” Love said. “It’s something you’ve got to have a good plan for it going into it. You’ve got to have a good week of practice, understanding the plan, understanding where you want to go when they do bring those blitzes with certain looks, and just go out there on gameday and execute. Really, it’s about getting the ball to our playmakers and letting them make plays, make people miss, things like that.”
Love hasn’t gotten the ball to his playmakers. In the loss at Dener on Sunday, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs combined for five receptions for 57 yards, and Watson, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave all averaged less than 10 yards per catch.
Of 33 quarterbacks to be pressured at least 40 times, Love is 27th in completion percentage, 22nd in yards per attempt and 28th in passer rating, according to Pro Football Focus.
Flores no doubt is ready bring the heat.
“Creativity is king in this league. I think if you do the same thing over and over again, it normally doesn't work out,” Flores told reporters this week. “I like to think that I've always been open to different schools of doing things.
“I think the game is ever changing. I try to stay up on the trends and the things that are in vogue within the league. Offensively, the game’s changed a lot in the past 10 years, so defensively, we need to change with it. I think you always have to be open to that.”
2. Kirk Cousins vs. Jordan Love
No, Jordan Love won’t be playing deep coverage in hopes of taking away one of Kirk Cousins’ deep shots. And, no, Cousins won’t be one of Flores’ blitzers.
But most NFL games are won by the team with the better quarterback. It’s why the Packers generally won games with Aaron Rodgers. It didn’t matter if Green Bay’s defense was good or bad. It didn’t matter if the defense forced turnovers or the special teams screwed up royally. Rodgers was Rodgers and that was that.
Kirk Cousins gives the Vikings an edge against the Packers.
Photo by Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports Images
Cousins gets a lot of flak for his playoff failures, but he’s been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks for years.
On paper, this is a colossal mismatch. Cousins is fourth in the league with a 101.8 passer rating. He’s sixth in completion percentage (68.9), second in touchdowns (16) and third in yards (2,057). Love is 28th in rating (79.4), 32nd (last) in completion percentage (57.5), ninth in touchdowns (10) and 22nd in yards (1,263).
When pressured, Cousins has a league-best 108.1 passer rating. That’s merely 60 points better than Love’s 47.2.
The name of the game is completing passes. Even without Justin Jefferson, Cousins is completing passes. On Monday night against the vaunted 49ers, Cousins completed 77.8 percent of his attempts for 378 yards.
“Justin’s arguably the best receiver in this game. So, when you take that away from them, that’s a huge piece, that’s an irreplaceable piece,” Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “It’s a nice problem for us to not have to deal with this time. But No. 8 [Cousins] played one of the best games that I’ve seen him play the other night. I think their O-line’s playing well and he’s got some other weapons that he’s going to use around.”
3. Vikings OTs vs. Packers Pass Rush
The Packers need a big game from Rashan Gary vs. the Vikings.
Photo by Mark Hoffman/USA Today Sports Images
The key for any pass defense is marrying pass rush and coverage. If Jaire Alexander plays to his usual form, the Packers will have the coverage with Alexander, Rasul Douglas and Keisean Nixon.
Will they have the pass rush?
Minnesota might have the best bookend tackles in the NFL with left tackle Christian Darrisaw and right tackle Brian O’Neill.
During the Vikings’ impressive win over the 49ers, Kirk Cousins dropped back 45 times. He threw from a clean pocket on 29, according to Pro Football Focus. O’Neill, who spent most of the game going against 49ers stud Nick Bosa, allowed three pressures. Darrisaw, who has supplanted David Bakhtiari as the clear-cut best left tackle in the NFC North, allowed just one.
For the season, Pro Football Focus has charged each player with just one sack.
The Packers will need huge games from their premier players. Rashan Gary, according to PFF, has 26 pressures. The other outside linebackers on the roster, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness and Kingsley Enagbare, have 25.
“Is this one of the best fronts in the league that we're playing? I mean, I look at Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary and Preston [Smith] and all these guys, they're really good,” Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said. “And I can show you some clips. So, there can't be a letdown.”
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