Playoff Matchups: Packers vs. Brock Purdy-Led 49ers Passing Attack
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers crushed the Dallas Cowboys in last week’s wild-card game because they took away Dak Prescott’s favorite receiver. Duplicating that success in Saturday’s divisional-round playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers might be impossible.
Here’s a look at how Green Bay’s pass defense will match up against the Brock Purdy-led 49ers passing attack.
49ers Pass Offense
Cowboys All-Pro receiver CeeDee Lamb had 16 more receptions and 10 more targets than any other player in the NFL. The Packers, however, limited him to two catches out of seven targets in the first half, when they turned the game into a rout.
The problem is 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy doesn’t lean so heavily on one player. Four players caught at least 60 passes with six touchdowns: receiver Brandon Aiyuk (75 receptions, 1,342 yards, seven touchdowns), running back Christian McCaffrey (67 receptions, 564 yards, seven touchdowns), tight end Georgie Kittle (60 receptions, 1,020 yards, six touchdowns) and receiver Deebo Samuel (60 receptions, 892 yards, seven touchdowns).
With McCaffrey leading the NFL with 1,458 rushing yards and Samuel adding 225 rushing yards, that’s four players with more than 1,000 yards.
With an abundance of weapons, Purdy led the NFL with a 113.0 passer rating and an all-time great 9.64 yards per attempt, and was third in touchdowns, fourth in completion percentage and fifth in yards.
Purdy’s accuracy and the skill of his playmakers meant San Francisco was No. 1 in yards after the catch, with 6.6 YAC per completion. Among receivers, Samuel was No. 1 with 8.7 YAC per catch and second with 25 forced missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. Among tight ends, Kittle was almost No. 1 with 7.3 YAC.
So, is Purdy a great quarterback or a good quarterback with great stats and a great supporting cast?
Grant Cohn of SI.com’s All 49ers: It’s hard to say he’s as great as his numbers suggest he is because his numbers suggest he’s the best quarterback in the league. I don’t think he’s top five, but he does certain things at an elite level.
He sees the field at an elite level. He’ll get to the fourth guy in his progression quickly. A lot of times after games, you’ll hear receivers be like, ‘I was jogging through my route, I was the fourth option, I never get the ball in this play, and it came to me, and it was a touchdown.’ Never heard that stuff of Jimmy Garoppolo, so that’s a skill.
He’s also very difficult to sack. You have to think of him as a mobile quarterback and you actually want to keep him in the pocket. You don’t want to let him get outside because, when he does get outside the pocket, he can scramble, he can make big plays. He’s a really good quarterback and, obviously, the scheme and the supporting cast and the defense put him in advantageous positions to get the absolute best out of him.
One thing about Purdy that’s interesting is he has a little bit of a Napoleonic complex – no offense, Brock – because he doesn’t want to be seen as a game manager. Everyone knows he has the weakest arm of the starting quarterbacks in the league. He works around it really, really well, but people label him a game manager and he thinks of himself as a gunslinger, and that mentality has gotten him into trouble a little bit.
He’s taking risks he doesn’t need to take on this team. He’s thrown 10 picks in the last 10 games. He still has great numbers but, when the Niners lose, it’s typically when he throws a pick. They’re undefeated when he doesn’t throw a pick. So, he needs to sort of channel his inner game manager in the playoffs.
Packers Pass Defense
The Packers’ starting cornerbacks entering the season were Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas. Because of Alexander’s injuries (and a suspension) and the trade of Douglas, they started seven games apiece. In their place, Carrington Valentine, a seventh-round draft pick, started 12 games and Corey Ballentine started six games after not starting a single game since 2020.
So, it’s perhaps not a surprise the Packers finished 25th in opponent passer rating, 23rd in passes defensed and 31st in interceptions.
However, in the dismantling of Dallas, the Packers intercepted two passes. One of those was by Alexander, who aggravated his sprained ankle during the third quarter. He would have been limited participation had the Packers practiced on Tuesday, which is perhaps a good sign.
With the run-after-catch skill of Samuel and Kittle, tackling will be critical. The spotlight will be on safety Darnell Savage, who as always had one of the worst missed-tackle rates in the NFL, and Alexander and Valentine, who were OK.
The Packers do a couple things well. While they give up far too many explosive plays (86 of 16-plus yards, 22nd in the league), they limit the really explosive plays (25 of 25-plus yards, sixth-best). And, led by Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt, they pressure the quarterback, finishing ninth in sack percentage and sixth in pressure percentage, according to SportRadar.
While left tackle Trent Williams is a fortress, San Francisco is middle-of-the-pack in pressures allowed. Right tackle Colton McKivitz is the weak link. Could the pressure of the moment and the pressure by Green Bay’s defense force Purdy into a couple big mistakes?
